Ranking the Heisman Favorites Heading into Week 16

One week remains until the 2020 Heisman Trophy race officially ends, and Alabama quarterback Mac Jones is leading the way.

For nearly a month, Jones and Florida quarterback Kyle Trask have shared front-runner status. But after a three-turnover performance in the Gators' stunning loss to LSU in Week 15, Trask has slipped heading into conference championship week.

It's at a perfectly inopportune moment—the 900-plus Heisman ballots are due following the conference title games.

Trask is chasing Jones, while Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is in danger of falling behind Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith. We'll cover all of those storylines in the Week 16 update.

Ranking factors include total production, Heisman trends and player reputations. The order is a snapshot of this specific week of the 2020 season, not a personal ballot or voting projection.

Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Because of preseason expectations, Fields entered 2020 with built-in support. He's accounted for 1,646 yards and 20 touchdowns in five games, and that production merits attention. Fields can bolster those numbers opposite Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game. But he's not a factor for first-place votes.

Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Harris scored twice in a rout of Arkansas, improving to a nation-best 22 rushing touchdowns. The senior has 1,084 yards on the ground and 27 catches for 249 yards, but his teammates—Jones and Smith—are the Crimson Tide's top Heisman contenders.

Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

The loss at Coastal Carolina stung Wilson, but he recovered nicely with 310 yards and three touchdowns in a victory over San Diego State last weekend. Wilson ended the regular season with 3,274 passing yards and 30 touchdowns to three interceptions and 242 rushing yards with eight scores.

Last week: Others to Know

While his hype train has gained speed, DeVonta Smith is working against a difficult trend.

During the 2010s, the only receivers with top-five Heisman finishes were Justin Blackmon (fifth, 2010), Marqise Lee (fourth, 2012), Amari Cooper (third, 2014) and Dede Westbrook (fourth, 2016). Voters love their quarterbacks and running backs.

Smith, nevertheless, is charging into the discussion.

Entering the SEC Championship Game, Smith has 83 receptions for 1,327 yards—which leads the Football Bowl Subdivision—and 15 touchdowns. The senior has added one rushing score and housed a punt against Arkansas last week.

Smith's final opportunity to sway traditional voters—and history shows that's a big crowd—is opposite Florida. It's entirely possible Smith leaps Lawrence and Trask with an impressive game this weekend.

Last week: 3

Smith is rising at the perfect time, but Lawrence still has an edge because historical trends value his position.

Lawrence has thrown for 2,431 yards and 20 touchdowns with only three interceptions and rushed for six scores. Factor in his 8-0 record as a starter, and he will be valued in voting.

He's not locked in here, though.

Considering the stakes, Clemson needs a great showing from Lawrence in the ACC Championship Game anyway. If the Tigers beat Notre Dame, they'll seal a place in the College Football Playoff. Do that, and Lawrence's perception will be steady.

But if he struggles in a Clemson loss, recency bias will create a window for Smith to snag second- and third-place Heisman votes that currently favor Lawrence.

Last week: 2

Among the players on the Heisman shortlist, Trask has the most alluring numbers. There is no debating that.

Trask leads the FBS in passing yards (3,717) and touchdowns (40) and holds top-10 ranks in completion percentage (70.2) and yards per attempt (10.1).

Losing to a depleted LSU defense, though, is a glaring negative on his resume. Trask tossed two interceptions and lost a fumble in the stunning upset, which happened at the worst possible time for both Florida's CFP hopes and his Heisman candidacy.

Trask has a chance to mend perceptions of him in the SEC Championship Game, but a loss to Alabama likely means the Crimson Tide will celebrate a Heisman winner.

Last week: 1

Now that Trask has slipped, Jones is officially the Heisman favorite.

Jones has completed 76.4 percent of his passes, racking up 3,321 yards and 27 touchdowns to three interceptions. He leads the FBS with 11.7 yards per attempt and has guided Alabama to a 10-0 record and a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

Though he hasn't sealed the award, Jones has a big advantage. The player with the most momentum—Smith—is both his teammate and largely reliant on him. Smith could make a big play on special teams, but if he's catching a bunch of passes, it means Jones is having a great day too.

As long as Jones produces in an Alabama win, he'll exit championship week in position to lift the Heisman Trophy.

Stats from NCAA.com, cfbstats.com or B/R research.