Odds for Each CBB Bubble Team Making 2020 NCAA Tournament with 3 Weeks to Go

After yet another weekend in which teams on the NCAA tournament bubble did more harm to themselves than good, which teams on the new cut line have the best chance at dancing?

Bracketology is all based on the here and now. If the season ended today, what might the field look like?

While the season doesn't end today, March is rapidly approaching. Most teams only have three or four games remaining before the all-important conference tournament. And based on remaining schedules, teams currently not in the field might actually have better odds than those projected for a bid.

While we will say that Team A needs to do X, Y and Z to get into the tournament, it might not actually be enough if more bubble teams than usual play well down the stretch or if there are a bunch of conference tournament "bid thieves" that turn projected auto bids into at-large bids and reduce the number of available spots.

Conversely, Team A might fall short of accomplishing X, Y and Z but could still get in if enough other teams sputter to the finish line and lower the bar for a spot in the field.

However, people are constantly asking what it would take for specific teams to get into the tournament, and this is our best guess at those minimum requirements for the eight teams surrounding the cut line.

You can't bet on them, but these are the tournament odds we've generated for the last four in and first four out, according to Sunday's Bracket Matrix update, listed in descending order of how safely in the field they are (or aren't).

Resume: 16-11, NET 54, KP 42, SOS 32, NC SOS 64, 2-9 vs Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2, 8-0 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Fifth-to-Last In*

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: vs. Texas Tech, at West Virginia, vs. Texas, at TCU

On the one hand, Oklahoma's 14-2 record against the bottom three Quadrants puts most bubble teams to shame. Seems like everyone has at least one awful loss and a handful of not-great missteps, but save for one particularly poor-shooting night at Kansas State, the Sooners have done well in the games they should have won.

On the other hand, the 2-9 record vs. Quadrant 1 is more than a little concerning, considering one of those two wins (at NET No. 75 Texas) was a Quadrant 2 game 24 hours ago. And three consecutive losses by double digits to Kansas, Baylor and Oklahoma State have pushed the Sooners perilously close to the NIT.

The remaining schedule is anything but a cakewalk. Rather, there's a good chance Oklahoma loses each of its next two games and enters March on the wrong side of the projected cut line, needing to win those last two against Texas and TCU just to have a discernible pulse at the start of the Big 12 tournament.

If that's the way things play out, Oklahoma would likely get the No. 5 seed in said tournament, drawing No. 4 seed West Virginia in the quarterfinals. The Sooners did win a home game against WVU earlier this month, and the Mountaineers have notoriously struggled away from home this season. But could Oklahoma do it again in a do-or-die game in Kansas City?

Tough to say, but Oklahoma needs to win at least one more Quadrant 1 game at some point. Every at-large team had at least two such victories last year, and First Four teams Belmont and Temple were the only ones to get in with fewer than three.

Tournament Odds: +190

*We're including Oklahoma as the fifth-to-last in instead of Cincinnati (fourth-to-last in) because the Bearcats picked up a quality win over Wichita State on Sunday afternoon and should be expected to move more comfortably into the field beginning with Monday morning updates.

Resume: 20-7, NET 39, KP 40, SOS 101, NC SOS 97, 2-4 vs Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 16-1 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Third-to-Last In

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: vs. San Jose State, at New Mexico

Utah State did what it had to do last week, blowing out Wyoming 78-58 at home.

A loss would have been catastrophic. Even a close win likely would have had a negative impact on the Aggies' resume. But they kept the status quo by annihilating one of the worst teams in the Mountain West Conference.

Time to lather, rinse and repeat with San Jose State on deck. The Spartans haven't won in nearly a month, and they haven't won away from home since the season opener at Hofstra. Lose at home to that team, and Utah State can kiss its at-large bid buh-bye.

But if the Aggies beat up on San Jose State and then win the regular-season finale at New Mexico—which hasn't beaten a KenPom Top 150 opponent since Dec. 14—they will enter the MWC tournament in good shape for a spot in the field.

Not great shape, but good shape. They'll still be at the mercy of the major-conference bubble teams and conference tournaments, and a loss to anyone other than San Diego State in the MWC championship would only increase that need for mercy.

For the time being, though, things are looking good.

Tournament Odds: -105

Resume: 17-10, NET 52, KP 50, SOS 53, NC SOS 72, 5-4 vs Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, 8-3 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Second-to-Last In

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: at North Carolina, vs. Pittsburgh, at Duke, vs. Wake Forest

NC State skyrocketed from "barely even an afterthought" to "looking good for a bid" with one 22-point win over Duke, but this resume isn't anywhere near as strong as it looks at first glance.

5-4 vs. Quadrant 1 seems incredible until you notice that the home win over Wisconsin (NET No. 30) just barely qualifies, and that the other three non-Duke wins were nail-biters against Virginia, UNC Greensboro and Syracuse.

Combine that with the Wolfpack having mediocre predictive metrics and seven losses to teams not in the projected field—including an awful loss at Boston College and an equally reprehensible season sweep at the hands of Georgia Tech—and there's no question there's still some work to be done.

Home wins over Pitt and Wake Forest won't do anything to help NC State. Those are merely Quadrant 3 results it needs to avoid losing. And while it still feels weird to say this, a Wolfpack loss at North Carolina would also be bad, considering the Tar Heels have lost 12 of their last 14 games and are barely clinging to a spot in the NET Top 100.

If NC State loses the rematch at Duke but gets that collection of three wins, though, it might be enough. At any rate, if we're to believe the Wolfpack would be in the projected field today, that projected four-game stretch wouldn't do anything to hurt their case.

But there's always the possibility of a game-changer in the ACC tournament. Given current projected standings, they would be the No. 5 seed, drawing the winner of Pitt vs. Wake Forest for the right to face Virginia in the quarterfinals. Win those two games, and they are golden. Lose to the Panthers or the Demon Deacons, and they're in serious trouble.

Tournament Odds: +110

Resume: 20-7, NET 48, KP 52, SOS 78, NC SOS 109, 2-4 vs Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 16-1 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Last Team In

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: at George Washington, vs. Massachusetts, vs. Davidson, at Duquesne

There were quite a few painful losses by bubble teams on Saturday, but Richmond's might have been the worst. One week after a statement win over VCU, the Spiders put themselves right back on the chopping block with a loss at St. Bonaventure.

Independently, it wasn't an atrocious result. Quadrant 2 losses aren't great, but they aren't the end of the world, either. But Richmond had almost no margin for error, and it didn't get any help from VCU or Rhode Island, each of which suffered a loss this weekend to somewhat devalue two of Richmond's best wins.

The Spiders are now just 4-6 against the top two Quadrants (plus a bad loss to Radford), and it's possible their neutral-court victory over Wisconsin is the only one against a team destined for the NCAA tournament.

If the season ended today, this team would be nowhere close to a lock. And you can probably remove Richmond from the at-large conversation altogether if it loses one of these next four games, considering it's three Quadrant 3 games and a Quadrant 2 game.

Even if the Spiders win out, they had better at least show up for the A-10 tournament, too, because this resume is about on par with what barely got Belmont into a first-round game in Dayton last year. There are a lot of moving parts elsewhere in the nation, but it's going to be difficult to make an at-large case for Richmond unless its only remaining loss comes against Dayton in the A-10 tournament.

Tournament Odds: +450

Resume: 16-12, NET 46, KP 49, SOS 14, NC SOS 141, 7-8 vs Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2, 6-4 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: First Team Out

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: at Villanova, vs. Xavier, vs. DePaul

We've spent all this time considering the royal rumble of bubble-y Big Ten teams with double-digit losses, but here comes the Big East's Providence off the top rope with 12 losses and five Quadrant 1 wins in February.

As little as 10 days ago, the Friars weren't even in the conversation. They were 13-12, outside the top 60 in both NET and KenPom and saddled with four awful November losses to Long Beach State, Charleston, Penn and Northwestern.

But while those losses haven't gone anywhere, victories over Seton Hall (home), Georgetown (road) and Marquette (home) have bumped Providence up to seven Quadrant 1 wins and a surprising fourth-place position in the Big East. The latter data point doesn't matter to the selection committee, but it still seems relevant in a league that might send seven or eight teams to the Big Dance.

One potential comparison from last year to keep in mind is Baylor. The Bears had dreadful early home losses to Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin and didn't have a single nonconference Quadrant 1 win, but they had a few huge victories in Big 12 play and ended up earning a No. 9 seed with a 19-13 record.

Even if it suffers the expected loss at Villanova on Saturday, Providence would be in a similar position if it can cap off the regular season with home wins over Xavier and DePaul.

The 12 losses give the Friars minimal margin for error, but we've also seen a 15-loss team receive an at-large bid in each of the last three years. Don't go writing this team off if it lays an egg in Philadelphia this weekend.

Tournament Odds: Even

Resume: 15-12, NET 55, KP 54, SOS 17, NC SOS 47, 4-10 vs Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 6-0 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Second Team Out

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: at Marquette, vs. Xavier, at Creighton, vs. Villanova

To put it lightly, Georgetown is facing an uphill battle.

If the Hoyas had a favorable remaining schedule, they'd be in wonderful position to ultimately get in. A 4-0 closing stretch against a quartet of Quadrant 3 opponents would be plenty, because a 19-12 record with five Quadrant 1 wins against a top-25 strength of schedule is almost always going to be a successful tournament resume.

However, the Hoyas are staring a gauntlet in the face, likely to lose at least three of their remaining four games to finish the regular season at 16-15 overall. There's no way that would be enough for a bid. Even a 2-2 finish would leave them questionable at best.

In our last look at bubble odds, we warned you (and Georgetown) of this situation. The Hoyas likely needed to win three of their final six, and this past week's contests against Providence and DePaul were the two easiest games among that group. Now that they have lost both of those games, they are on the outside looking in and likely to stay there.

Georgetown did win its earlier home game against Creighton and gave Marquette a run for its money three days later, but road games against those teams will be significantly more challenging. And as long as Villanova doesn't take that regular-season finale for granted, it should be able to defeat the Hoyas in Washington D.C.

Patrick Ewing's guys have surprised us several times already this season, though, so don't close the book on the Hoyas.

Tournament Odds: +375

Resume: 18-9, NET 32, KP 34, SOS 96, NC SOS 214, 2-5 vs Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 12-1 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Third Team Out

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: vs. Utah, vs. Colorado, at Oregon State, at Oregon

Stanford was a major beneficiary from a chaotic weekend for the bubble. While the likes of Richmond, Rhode Island, NC State, Georgetown, Purdue and Mississippi State suffered losses on Saturday, the Cardinal put together a road sweep of Washington and Washington State.

Neither win was that impressive, as both Washington schools currently have overall records of .500 or worse. The win over the Huskies was a Quadrant 1 result that helped Stanford's resume a bit, but let's just say it's not on par with NC State's win over Duke or Providence's recent wins over Seton Hall and Marquette.

By not losing, though, Stanford's tournament outlook is much improved.

All hail the moving target known as the bubble.

Still, the Cardinal are nowhere close to a lock. Losing the home game against Utah on Wednesday would be a terrible idea. Ending the season with three straight losses—even though each is a Quadrant 1 game—wouldn't be any better. So Stanford would be strongly advised to go at least 2-2 the rest of the way.

That would put the Cardinal at 20-11 overall and would almost certainly make them the No. 7 seed in the Pac-12 tournament. So long as they don't lose their first-round game against a team like California or Washington State, they should be OK.

Going 1-3 the rest of the way would also likely make Stanford the No. 7 seed, but at that point, it might need to win the quarterfinal against whichever team ends up with the No. 2 seed.

Tournament Odds: +125

Resume: 14-14, NET 37, KP 25, SOS 57, NC SOS 87, 4-11 vs Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 7-1 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Fourth Team Out

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: vs. Indiana, at Iowa, vs. Rutgers

Nothing screams "Bad Year for the Bubble" quite like a .500 team that bracketologists can't seem to quit.

To be fair to my prognosticating kin, Purdue's predictive metrics are great, and slightly more than half of the brackets included in Sunday's matrix refresh were published before Saturday's games—aka when Purdue was 14-13 prior to a home loss to Michigan.

Even after that result, I'm going to be all but obligated to include the Boilermakers in the "First Five Out" of my Tuesday morning bracket update because, frankly, no one else is worthy of consideration at the moment.

That said, it isn't all that tempting to put Purdue in the field of 68, and it's hard to imagine it can get there without winning each of its final three games. Using KenPom win probabilities, there's only a 15 percent chance of that happening—and even that might not be enough to guarantee a bid.

The Boilermakers may well win the home games against Indiana and Rutgers, potentially pushing both those teams closer to the cut line, too. But the road game against Iowa figures to be Purdue's undoing. Purdue is 0-9 away from home against the top half of Quadrant 1, and Iowa has won each of its last 12 home games.

If that's the way things shake out, Purdue would end the regular season at 16-15 overall, likely earning either the No. 11 or No. 12 seed in the Big Ten tournament, which would mean an opening-round game against Northwestern or Nebraska. For a team that simply needs wins, that's probably a good thing. But if the Boilermakers win that game and lose the next one to a team like Illinois or Michigan, they would be 17-16 and very likely headed for the NIT.

We've seen some 15-loss teams receive at-large bids, but never 16-loss squads. The metrics help Purdue's case, but it simply doesn't have enough marquee wins to justify breaking that seal. Either win the next three and avoid an ugly exit from the Big Ten tournament or bounce back from a loss down the stretch by at least making it to the quarterfinals.

Neither seems likely to happen, but there's still a chance.

Tournament Odds: +400

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.