Fact or Fiction: Making Sense of MLB's Latest Free-Agency and Trade Rumors

The 2020 MLB winter meetings are underway, and the rumors are beginning to fly. Some of the buzz is confusing even the upper management of one particular franchise.

Buster Olney of ESPN reported Sunday the Philadelphia Phillies were open to offers for right-hander Zack Wheeler. Phillies managing general partner John Middleton vigorously denied the report, even saying he would not trade Wheeler for Babe Ruth.

Only, ESPN's Jeff Passan and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic both confirmed the Phillies had discussed deals for Wheeler, with Passan noting "three high-ranking executives on other teams" confirmed Olney's initial report.

In other words...2020, right?

Plenty of reports have circulated in the past few weeks. Some, like Olney's, generate so much buzz (or backlash) they influence high-level executives to address the rumors.

Well, let's try our hand at that exercise. The following is an assortment of trade and free-agency rumors that will be labeled as "fact" or "fiction" depending on the depth of reporting and potential team fit, among other factors.

Sonny Gray has garnered more and more attention in recent weeks.

Ken Rosenthal was the first to report the Cincinnati Reds were open to moving the right-hander. He initially stated the Reds were merely doing "due diligence," possibly in an effort to maximize Gray's value while he still has years of club control remaining.

But the noise surrounding Gray has grown louder in recent weeks. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last Friday the Reds were "working hard" to trade Gray. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Monday "several teams" were showing interest in the two-time All-Star, reiterating Cincy was continuing to assess the level of interest.

Trading Gray would essentially cement the idea the Reds are punting in 2021. But they might be doing that anyway.

Cincinnati is losing Trevor Bauer to free agency and might not be able to sign the National League Cy Young Award winner given his expected market value. Indeed, the Reds have already made cost-cutting measures like non-tendering Archie Bradley and trading Raisel Iglesias to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Noe Ramirez and a player to be named later. Is Gray the next trade candidate?

The Reds should be able to get a big haul in the event they do indeed decide to trade him. The 31-year-old had a 2.87 ERA over 31 starts in 2019 and—despite a higher ERA—actually had a lower fielding independent pitching (FIP) mark in 2020 (3.05). 

Gray has been effective on the mound, and he is immensely affordable. The Nashville native is owed just over $20 million in the next two years, per Spotrac, and also has a $12 million club option for 2023. His performance, salary and years of control make him one of the top trade assets, especially given the lack of star power in the free-agent starting pitching class.

Granted, the Reds are not simply going to ship Gray off. They could always look to move him at the deadline—or even next winter. But trading him now would likely net the biggest return, and Cincy has already signaled a willingness to sell and slash payroll.

The Ruling: Fact

Whereas Sonny Gray has essentially zero control as to what uniform he wears next season, Trevor Bauer's future is in his own hands.

The 29-year-old already figured to have a strong market this winter even before he went out and dominated opponents in 2020. He led the NL with a 1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 276 ERA+. He also led the majors by allowing just 5.1 hits per nine innings.

Now, Bauer is the clear star among stars when it comes to free-agent pitchers and—given the number of contenders looking to upgrade their rotations—might find himself with a record-breaking deal in terms of average annual value (AAV). 

One such team with starting pitching needs and capital could be the New York Mets, and they're apparently catching Bauer's eye.

His agent, Rachel Luba, told Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News the Mets could "definitely be a landing spot," also saying Bauer "likes where the organization is going."

This will come as no surprise to those who follow Bauer's growing YouTube channel. The UCLA product lauded new Mets owner Steve Cohen following his introductory press conference, praising him for suggesting a willingness to engage with fans and build a brand separate from the New York Yankees.

Thosar reported the Mets are one of a number of teams to reach out to Bauer, and Luba suggested her client is in no rush to sign a deal as he considers a number of different offers.

But New York is one of the teams possibly willing to make Bauer a short-term offer at a high AAV—or possibly a longer deal at a slightly more modest AAV. Cohen said during his introductory press conference the Mets would "have a budget commensurate" with that of a major-market team, per MLB Network's Jon Morosi.

Well, the Mets absolutely have starting pitching needs after they ranked 26th in starting ERA, per FanGraphs. Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard will be returning to join Jacob deGrom in the rotation, but both will also be free agents in 2022, which could further incentivize New York to shoot for the stars in an effort to sign Bauer. 

For their part, the Mets can also promise Bauer a club with a strong foundation of position players and an owner determined to build a winning culture by any means necessary. There is plenty of reason to believe there is mutual interest. 

The Ruling: Fact

The timeline of a potential Francisco Lindor trade is unknown, but the end result is almost universally agreed upon.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today was among those to report last month the Cleveland Indians informed rival teams they intend to move Lindor before Opening Day. The switch-hitting shortstop will be a free agent in 2022, and the Indians, who have traditionally operated on a low payroll, appear more willing to trade him now than to continue hashing out an extension.

Any number of teams could be in on Lindor, whose combination of hit tool, power, speed and exceptional defense (not to mention his charisma) makes him one of the top stars in the game. However, the Indians might have one specific team in mind when it comes to negotiating.

Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported the Indians would "love" to construct a deal for Lindor with a return package that includes Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Indeed, the Blue Jays are an ideal trade partner for Cleveland, and Gurriel is an ideal target.

The Indians have long struggled to get outfield production. They ranked 29th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) in 2020, per FanGraphs, and have lacked impactful outfield bats for a number of years now.

Gurriel would give Cleveland a legitimate run-producer who can drive the ball out of the yard. The 27-year-old clubbed 11 homers and posted an .882 OPS in 2020 following a 2019 season during which he hit 20 homers in 84 games. He also has a .287 career batting average in 830 plate appearances, which speaks to the hit tool in addition to the power. 

Aside from Gurriel, the Blue Jays have any number of prospects to interest the Indians. Jordan Groshans could be Lindor's replacement at short, or Cleveland could make a play for any of Toronto's young catchers. Not to mention, the Blue Jays have young arms like Simeon Woods Richardson and Alek Manoah, plus an MLB-ready arm in left-hander Anthony Kay. 

Pairing Groshan, Woods Richardson or Manoah with Gurriel likely isn't happening unless the Blue Jays are confident Lindor will sign a long-term deal to stay in Toronto. Still, general manager Ross Atkins has the assets the Indians might desire. 

A number of other teams could swoop in to acquire Lindor. But potential suitors like the Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers might not be able to put together the same kind of package.

Plus, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported Toronto "really" wants Lindor, and Atkins himself hinted as much during an MLB Network appearance Tuesday morning, per Jon Morosi.

The Ruling: Fact

The Chicago Cubs are in an interesting spot this winter.

They missed the playoffs in 2019 and were bounced in the Wild Card Round in 2020. A number of key players—Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo—are entering their final seasons of club control, and former president of baseball operations Theo Epstein previously hinted at big changes.

Of course, Epstein is gone now, having ceded power to Jed Hoyer. But Hoyer's message has also been fairly similar. He said during a recent press conference he wants to have "one eye on the future."

The general tone of Chicago's front office, paired with the recent non-tender of outfielder Kyle Schwarber, might suggest the Cubs are going to overhaul the roster. But they also have limited assets.

Bryant (.644 OPS) is coming off a career-worst year, and Baez (.238 OBP) also struggled mightily at the dish. Rizzo is a fan favorite and not likely to be moved, and dealing either Yu Darvish or Kyle Hendricks would signal a full-scale teardown.

However, the Cubs do have options with catcher Willson Contreras. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported Chicago is "very open" to dealing him, and it's easy to speculate as to why.

For starters, Contreras is one of the best catchers in baseball. He ranks seventh among qualified catchers in fWAR since he debuted in 2016, also ranking third in wRC+ during that span, per FanGraphs.

Contreras was the NL's starting catcher in the 2018 and 2019 All-Star games. The Venezuelan has a cannon of an arm behind the dish and ranked 11th in pitch framing this year, per Baseball Savant. 

J.T. Realmuto is one of the top free agents available, and Sherman reported even James McCann could get a four-year deal because of the "demand for quality catching." It is possible Chicago strikes gold with any team that fails to sign one of the top backstops. 

Aside from his production, Contreras will not be a free agent until 2023, and he is estimated to make just $6.2 million in arbitration this year, per Spotrac. 

ESPN's Jeff Passan reported last winter Contreras was thought to be available. But the Cubs, who also have Victor Caratini and prospect Miguel Amaya waiting in the wings, might be more assertive in gauging his value this time around.   

The Ruling: Fact

It is impossible to talk about elite pitching in the 2010s without mentioning Corey Kluber.

The former Cleveland Indians ace was an absolute fixture of the rotation after he arrived in earnest in 2013. Over the next five years, he won a pair of American League Cy Young Awards while finishing in the top three two other times. He also threw at least 203 innings in each of those seasons. 

But things changed in 2019. Kluber made just seven starts due to injury. Last winter, after a solid year-plus of speculation he would be moved, the Indians dealt him to the Texas Rangers. He promptly left his first start with a tear in his shoulder and never returned. 

Now, Kluber appears to be just another aging veteran pitcher in a market with plenty of them. That is not to say the 34-year-old won't have suitors, though.

One executive told ESPN's Buster Olney they felt it was "inevitable" Kluber signed with the New York Mets, New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox. All three teams make sense given their rotation needs.

The Yankees could certainly entertain signing Kluber in the event they re-sign DJ LeMahieu since they will potentially be in a financial crunch to avoid going over the luxury-tax threshold. Meanwhile, MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported the Red Sox have already shown interest in Kluber.

But merely limiting his market to three teams is foolish. The San Francisco Giants could be a good fit, as could the Toronto Blue Jays if they sign positional stars. The Los Angeles Angels need some rotation help and could hope signing Kluber is a win-now move for a franchise desperate to play October baseball.

Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News reported the Minnesota Twins have interest, and the San Diego Padres could bring Kluber back home after first drafting him in 2007.

Any number of teams will likely be willing to gamble on Kluber's upside, and more clubs could get involved if he is willing to take a cheaper deal or even a one-year pact with a high AAV so as to rebuild value, though he is getting up there in age.

In any case, it is by no means a guarantee Kluber ends up on the East Coast.

The Ruling: Fiction

George Springer and Marcell Ozuna are the toast of the free-agent outfield class, though plenty of other intriguing players are available. This is especially true among left fielders.

The non-tender deadline added multiple guys to the market, including Eddie Rosario, Kyle Schwarber and David Dahl. Former Atlanta Braves outfielder Adam Duvall had a resurgent 2020 but is also a free agent after he was non-tendered. 

Meanwhile, veteran Brett Gardner is available, and switch-hitting left fielder Robbie Grossman was a major contributor to the Oakland Athletics' lineup last year. Another guy already drawing interest is former Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported three teams have shown "at least some interest" in Pederson, including the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. But the Cardinals seem to be cutting costs after declining Kolten Wong's option, and the Brewers are in a holding pattern. Is the interest real? 

Pederson hit just .190 with a .681 OPS last year, but he has upside as a slugger who mashes right-handed pitching. The 28-year-old has clubbed at least 25 homers in four seasons, including a 2019 campaign in which he hit 36 homers and posted a career-high .876 OPS. That kind of slugging upside is exactly what teams like the Cardinals and Brewers need.

St. Louis ranked 14th in the NL in both runs scored and OPS last season. Tyler O'Neill is a Gold Glover but has also dropped OPS points in each of his first three seasons. Dylan Carlson should eventually be a staple, though he struggled in his rookie campaign.

In Milwaukee, the Brewers placed 12th in the NL in runs scored and 13th in OPS, plus they're losing longtime left fielder Ryan Braun to free agency.

The legitimacy of these teams' purported interest is going to be shaped by how Pederson's market evolves. Rosenthal reported the White Sox were another team with interest in the Palo Alto native, but they appear to have moved on by signing Adam Eaton to a one-year deal.

Will other teams make a play for Pederson? The Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants could possibly be good fits.

In any case, the Cardinals and Brewers desperately need pop. Both clubs will have to account for the fact Pederson is best used as a platoon outfielder, but that might also make him slightly cheaper.

The Ruling: Fact

Notable bats were not the only ones non-tendered ahead of last week's deadline.

Just a few years ago, Jose Urena and Trevor Williams had the look of frontline starters for the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates, respectively. But both suffered through woeful campaigns in the past two years and thus find themselves on the open market.

Yet again, we see how teams are considering all options when it comes to starting pitching. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Urena and Williams each have "more than a half-dozen teams showing interest."

Judging off recency alone, that level of interest seems absurd.

Urena had a 5.21 ERA over 84.2 innings in 2019 and made just five starts in 2020 to the tune of a 5.40 ERA. Williams has fared even worse, posting a 5.38 ERA over 26 starts in 2019 before allowing a league-high 15 homers this past year.

But interested clubs might feel they can maximize Urena's and Williams' talents. Both players have yet to reach 30 and have shown they can be effective in the past. 

Williams had a 3.11 ERA over 31 starts and allowed a far more friendly 0.8 homers per nine innings for a second consecutive year in 2018. Urena, meanwhile, had back-to-back years with a sub-4.00 ERA in 2017 and 2018, though command was a bit of an issue as he led the NL in hit batters both years. 

Of course, there are other reasons the two starters are appealing.

Urena has good velocity and a plus changeup. He also rediscovered success with his slider in his brief 2020 showing as opponents hit just .182 off the pitch, per Baseball Savant. For all his struggles this past season, Williams still ranked in the 70th percentile in average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant, and has typically had more success commanding his fastball. 

Teams must get creative and take risks when it comes to starting pitching, especially given the uncertainties of this year's market and the fact even big-market teams could be slightly more limited in terms of spending.

The Ruling: Fact

All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted.