College Football Odds Week 11: Picks Against the Spread for Top 25 Matchups
What was hailed at the beginning of the college football season as an enormous weekend of games has lost some of its luster this week.
At least five top-25 teams—Alabama, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Georgia and Auburn—won't be in action because of coronavirus-related postponements, and there are no matchups featuring two top-25 teams.
Despite that, we don't expect a weekend of chalk games with no upsets. This is college football, after all.
This Week's Top-25 Matchups
(All times Eastern)
East Carolina at No. 7 Cincinnati (-25.5) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 2 Notre Dame (-13.5) at Boston College | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
Arkansas (+17.5) at No. 6 Florida | 7 p.m. | ESPN
No. 9 Miami (FL) (+2) at Virginia Tech | 12 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 10 Indiana (-7) at Michigan State | 12 p.m.
No. 11 Oregon (-10.5) at Washington State | 7 p.m. | FOX
No. 13 Wisconsin at Michigan (+4.5) | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 15 Coastal Carolina (-10.5) at Troy | 12 p.m. | ESPN2
Middle Tennessee (+24) at No. 16 Marshall | 1:30 p.m. | CBSSN
No. 19 SMU (+3) at Tulsa | 7 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 20 USC (-14) at Arizona | 3:30 p.m. | FOX
Western Carolina at No. 22 Liberty (-32.5) | 12 p.m. | ESPNU
No. 23 Northwestern (-2.5) at Purdue | 7:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network
South Alabama (+15.5) at No. 25 Louisiana | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
No. 9 Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech
It's rare to see a top-10 team as an underdog against an unranked one, even on the road. But the Hurricanes haven't exactly been dominant as of late, squeaking out a five-point win over Virginia two weeks ago and a three-point nailbiter against North Carolina State last weekend.
The Hokies, meanwhile, are coming off a three-point loss to Liberty in which they were a 17-point favorite. Miami is also 4-2 ATS in its last six matchups with Virginia Tech. It's unlikely that this is a blowout given the rivalry history between these two, but the Hurricanes will win and cover.
No. 19 SMU at Tulsa
Here's another top-25 team traveling on the road as an underdog, though this one might be a little more tricky.
SMU is 7-1, with its lone loss coming at the hands of then-No. 9 Cincinnati. Tulsa, though, is 3-1, with a win over then-No. 11 UCF and a close loss to Oklahoma State under its belt. SMU hasn’t been great against the spread (2-5-1 in its last eight), but the Mustangs are 5-2 in their last seven ATS. This will be another close one, but SMU pulls out a late cover and wins straight-up.
No. 20 USC vs. Arizona
It's hard to know exactly what to expect from this Arizona team, because for them, this is Week 1 after last week's game against Utah was canceled. USC barely sneaked by a lackluster Arizona State team, turning the ball over four times despite racking up 556 yards of offense.
However, Arizona is just 1-6 against the spread when playing USC and equally bad ATS against all teams, including just 1-4-1 ATS at home in its last six. The Trojans being 14-point favorites seems a little steep after last week's performance, but based on recent history, we wouldn't put money on the Wildcats to cover.
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