Bowl Predictions 2020: Projections and Odds for CFP Final and Top Matchups

As many suspected, the final College Football Playoff rankings proved one thing quite loudly: Playing in the Power Five matters above all.

The playoff committee opting to keep Notre Dame in the top four wasn't exactly a shock, given that Texas A&M, the team right on its heels, had a less impressive best win and its only loss came to Clemson, which finished No. 2 in the final rankings. A case could've been made for the Aggies, but it wasn't any more compelling than Notre Dame's, and dropping the Irish out of the playoff would have been a severe punishment for losing in the ACC Championship Game. 

Arguably a more damning indictment of the CFP was its treatment of Cincinnati, which finished 9-0 with three Top 25 wins, won its conference championship and finished with the country's top-ranked defense. And still, the Bearcats finished behind No. 6 Oklahoma (8-2) and No. 7 Florida (8-3), which lost its last two games heading into Sunday's selection show. 

Cincinnati will instead settle for a matchup with No. 9 Georgia in the Peach Bowl, a good consolation prize but nothing compared to being the first Group of Five team to have a legitimate shot at the national championship. 

(Note: Predictions in bold)

Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs. Texas A&M

Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. Cincinnati

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida 

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Iowa State

Two of these games—the Orange Bowl and Peach Bowl—will feature teams that had serious playoff aspirations and instead have to settle for the New Year's Six.

Both Texas A&M and Cincinnati could make an argument as to why they belonged in the playoff, but ultimately, Notre Dame's win over Clemson earlier this season, even though the Tigers didn't have Trevor Lawrence, was more impressive.

Of note in the Orange Bowl is former Texas coach Mack Brown facing off against ex-Big 12 nemesis Texas A&M. His North Carolina team arguably benefited the most from Notre Dame being kept in the playoff, as the Tar Heels likely would've been pushed out of the New Year's Six altogether if the Irish got bumped. 

The Cotton Bowl, which will be held at the same site where the first national semifinal will be played, features an Oklahoma team that reeled off eight straight wins after losing two of its first three, including a win over then-No. 6 Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship.

The Sooners will face off with a Florida team coming off consecutive losses to LSU and Alabama and one that according to head coach Dan Mullen, could lose some its best players who decide to opt out and prepare for the NFL draft. The Gators had one of the most dynamic offenses in the country this season that is led by quarterback Kyle Trask and tight end Kyle Pitts, both of whom project as high draft picks. 

Whether the Gators have their array of offensive weapons will go a long way in determining how competitive this game is. If they're missing Trask, Pitts or any combination of starters on that side of the ball, the Gators could be in for a long day. 

Of the final two teams, Oregon and Iowa State, the Ducks weren't even supposed to play in the Pac-12 Championship Game but did because Washington couldn't field enough players because of COVID-19 issues. The Ducks went on to beat undefeated USC and steal the league's New Year's Six berth.

Meanwhile, the Cyclones, who finished with three losses, still ended up ahead of unbeaten Coastal Carolina and once-beaten Indiana. It won't be much of a surprise if Matt Campbell's squad has a point to prove when these teams face off in Arizona. 

*Rose Bowl: 1. Alabama vs. 4. Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl: 2. Clemson vs. 3. Ohio State

Note: The Rose Bowl has been moved to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, because of California's COVID-19 safety restrictions. 

Although some might have hoped for a different final four, the fact that it ended up this way shouldn't shock anyone. Alabama and Clemson, when it has Trevor Lawrence, are the two best in the country, hands down. The Tigers' dominance of Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game only reinforced that. 

The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, will use the next two weeks to prepare for Alabama's electric offense, which racked up 52 points and 605 yards on Florida in the SEC Championship Game. Notre Dame will hope to slow the game down with its rushing attack, but Alabama's defense has been very good against the run, and the Irish don't have the passing attack to keep up with Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith and Co. And don't forget about running back Najee Harris, who ran for 178 yards and scored five touchdowns in a 52-46 win over Florida.

In the other semifinal, Ohio State will look to prove it belongs in the playoff after playing just six games because of scheduling issues. The Buckeyes were less than impressive in a 22-10 win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game, and they'll be facing a Clemson team with a lot of momentum and arguably the best quarterback in college football, Trevor Lawrence. 

Predictions

National Semifinal: Alabama 42, Notre Dame 14

National Semifinal (Sugar Bowl): Clemson 38, Ohio State 24

College Football Playoff National Championship: Alabama 38, Clemson 34