Winners and Losers of Blockbuster Yu Darvish Trade to Padres

Evidently not content to stop with their trade for Blake Snell on Sunday, the San Diego Padres doubled up on deals for ace pitchers with an agreement to acquire Yu Darvish from the Chicago Cubs on Monday.

Since the latter trade—which was first reported by MLB.com's Mark Feinsand—has far-reaching ramifications, we made sense of them all by narrowing things down to a list of its biggest winners and losers.

We have four of each to get to, and they range from teams to a farm system to players. They are all better or worse now than they were before San Diego agreed to acquire the four-time All-Star and runner-up for the 2020 National League Cy Young Award.

Let's get to it.

Especially after right-hander Mike Clevinger was sidelined for 2021 by Tommy John surgery, the Padres had a clear need to upgrade their rotation.

To this end, it's not ideal that they had to subtract steady right-hander Zach Davies in their trade for Darvish. Yet Snell, who was the American League Cy Young Award winner just two years ago, is perfectly capable of making up for Davies' absence. Given the run he's on, that may be doubly true of Darvish.

Darvish mostly struggled in his first year-and-a-half with the Cubs after signing a six-year, $126 million deal in February 2018. But something clicked for the 34-year-old on July 12, 2019. Ever since then, he's the owner of a 2.40 ERA and superb 10.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 25 starts.

Between Darvish, Snell and Dinelson Lamet, the Padres are set to have three Cy Young-caliber starters atop a rotation that will also feature youngsters Chris Paddack and Adrian Morejon. Health permitting, that could be the best fivesome in the National League not just for 2021 but also beyond.

Though the Cubs endured their fourth straight disappointing season in 2020, that was no fault of their starting pitching. Led by Darvish's brilliant work, Cubs starters posted a sturdy 3.77 ERA, which ranked sixth in baseball.

But with Darvish joining the Padres and Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana on the free-agent market, that particular band is pretty well broken up. And while Davies—who's coming off a 2.73 ERA over 12 starts—is a darn good pitcher in his own right, well, he's no Darvish.

It's seemingly more important to the Cubs that Davies is cheaper than Darvish, who's owed $59 million through 2023. They now have greater flexibility with their 2021 payroll, which is projected about $40 million below where their 2020 payroll would have been if the pandemic hadn't shortened the season to 60 games.

Now the question is whether the Cubs will turn around and use their newfound flexibility on the free-agent market. That's where there's room for doubt. As ESPN's Buster Olney succinctly put it: "This is what a salary dump in a pandemic looks like. The Cubs aimed to transfer debt."

On the plus side, at least Chicago's long-term future looks better.

In addition to Davies, the Cubs landed four prospects from San Diego: shortstops Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana and outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena. Per MLB.com, they had rated as the Padres' Nos. 11, 16, 13 and 15 talents.

Suffice it to say that the Cubs farm system badly needed a boost of this magnitude. We had it ranked as the fourth-worst group after the August 31 trade deadline. It's not exactly elite now, but a kinda-sorta rebuilding team can breathe easy knowing that it's much better than it was.

Now the pressure is on Chicago to develop its four newest prospects into major league contributors. That's going to take some patience, as Preciado, Caissie and Mena are teenagers and Santana is only 20.

As good as the Padres were in 2020, the Dodgers were simply better every step of the way.

The Dodgers went 6-4 against the Padres and won their eighth straight National League West title with a 43-17 record. And when the two clubs met in the National League Division Series, the Dodgers rolled to a three-game sweep en route to winning their first World Series since 1988.

But with a core of stars that includes homegrown talents Chris Paddack and Fernando Tatis Jr. and free-agent signees Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer, the Padres nonetheless entered the offseason as a long-term threat to the Dodgers. After agreeing to add Darvish and Snell, they're obviously even more of one now.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have done little to bolster their upcoming title defense. Whether it's re-signing or replacing key free agents such as Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Blake Treinen and Jake McGee or making a blockbuster trade of their own, they'd better get a move on.

On the flip side of the Dodgers in the NL West are the Cubs' chief competitors in the National League Central.

With Darvish gone, the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds have much clearer paths to the top of the division in 2021 after finishing behind the Cubs in 2020. Going forward, each club can only further improve its path by pursuing necessary upgrades via trades and free agency.

To wit, the Cardinals, Brewers and Reds should be looking for bats after ranking among the Senior Circuit's worst offensive teams in 2020. Sans reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer, the Reds also have a major hole to fill atop their rotation.

Whatever the case, nobody in the NL Central is going to miss facing Darvish. He made seven of his 12 starts against intra-division foes in 2020—and dominated them to the tune of a 1.93 ERA with 58 strikeouts and nine walks in 42 innings.

Speaking of Trevor Bauer, the Padres are but one of many teams he's made overtures toward since he became a free agent following the conclusion of the World Series in October.

But at this point, it's hard to imagine the Padres would take him up on his interest.

According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Padres were indeed interested in the 29-year-old Southern California native as the calendar flipped to December. But with Darvish and Snell now in tow, the Padres almost certainly won't be adding another nine-figure deal to a payroll that now has four players earning north of $20 million per year.

So, scratch one potential suitor for Bauer off the list. Luckily for him, there are still many more that would love to have him. At some point, one of them is going to pay handsomely to bring him aboard.

Not to be lost in the fallout of the agreement for Darvish is that it's a pretty good move for the man himself.

For one thing, he's going to reunite with some familiar faces. While with the Texas Rangers, Padres general manager A.J. Preller helped scout and sign Darvish out of Japan in January 2012. Darvish will also recognize San Diego manager Jayce Tingler, who was formerly a coach for the Rangers.

For another, Darvish will now have a much better chance of winning a World Series ring with the Padres than he would have with the Cubs.

Whereas Chicago is a fading contender, San Diego is fresh off snapping a 14-year playoff absence by way of the NL's second-best record. It has more than enough talent to help Darvish get back to the Fall Classic, where he would have a score to settle after getting robbed by the Houston Astros in 2017.

Granted, it might be a reach to single out MacKenzie Gore as one of the losers of the Padres' 24-hour blockbuster binge.

After all, it perhaps says a lot about San Diego's confidence in him that he wasn't part of the agreements for Darvish or Snell. Such confidence would certainly be warranted, as the 21-year-old Gore rates as MLB.com's No. 3 prospect.

But if nothing else, Gore now faces a longer road to the Padres rotation. Fellow young left-hander Adrian Morejon seems to have the inside track to the No. 5 spot. Still another southpaw, 27-year-old Joey Lucchesi, also appears to be ahead of Gore in the pecking order.

It could therefore require not one but two injuries for Gore to get his shot at starting in 2021. And that's assuming he satisfies higher-ups' desire, as MLB.com's Mike Rosenbaum wrote, for him to "establish more consistency with his secondary pitches."

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.