BS Meter on Latest NBA Trade and Offseason Rumors

After a wild weekend of NBA free agency, in which nearly 100 players came to terms on new deals, teams are beginning to settle on their 2020-21 rosters ahead of the start of training camp on December 1.

Over the last few years, though, the league has repeatedly shown us that there's never really a chance for fans and analysts to take a breath in between news cycles.

Even as free agency has settled down, there are still rumors floating around cyberspace on some of the game's biggest names.

Will James Harden join Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the Brooklyn Nets? Will Giannis Antetokounmpo sign his supermax with the Milwaukee Bucks? How set are the Philadelphia 76ers on the combination of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons? And does John Wall want off the Washington Wizards?

The NBA's balance of power could shift dramatically if any one of those situations results in a trade (with the exception of the possibility of Wall getting moved, given his recent health and the position of the Wizards).

How likely is a trade for those players, though? We'll determine using the tried and true B.S. Meter, a finely tuned, scientific instrument without a hint of subjectivity or bias (OK, maybe there's a little subjectivity).

On November 20, a few days after rumors of a potential trade involving Washington point guard John Wall and Houston Rockets guard Russell Westbrook surfaced, the Wizards' five-time All-Star reportedly asked to be moved.

"As Rockets/Wizards talks on Russell Westbrook-for-John Wall stall," The Athletic and Stadium's Shams Charania wrote, "Wall has made it clear he wants trade out of Washington to happen."

Three days after that news broke, Washington general manager Tommy Sheppard took the stance many executives do in this position, when he told reporters, "There's no plans to trade John … it's a new story with John and Brad. It's not a sequel."

Again, most front offices, when backed into a corner by a trade demand (whether real or a smokescreen sent through a reporter), respond in a way that hopefully establishes a position of strength. They want the opposition to think they'll have to pony up for a big offer to actually secure that player.

The B.S. Meter tells us that's what's happening with Sheppard's comments. Charania is one of the most plugged-in reporters in the business, and his initial report indicated that Washington at least talked about moving Wall. The point guard then asking out is a natural response.

Now, one could certainly argue that a firsthand quote from the general manager should carry more weight than an anonymously sourced rumor, regardless of which reporter relays it, but this is the NBA. We've seen enough posturing over the years to have a good idea of when it's happening.

Wall is 30 years old. He's coming off one of the most devastating injuries in basketball, a ruptured Achilles tendon. And he's set to make an average of $44.3 million per year through 2022-23, assuming he picks up his player option for the last year (he will).

If given the opportunity, just about any GM in basketball is going to want to get out from under a contract like that.

Now, would he do it for Westbrook? He doesn't have as worrisome an injury history as Wall, but his contract is awfully onerous, too. If that's the only option, maybe a move is less likely, but it's hard to believe trading Wall is off the table entirely.

B.S. Meter on "There's no plans to trade John": 8-of-10

B.S. Meter on Wall wanting out of Washington: 2-of-10

It feels like the question of whether the Sixers should trade Simmons or Embiid has been a running theme in the NBA for about as long as the partnership has existed.

In 2019-20, proponents for a move got a little more evidence to support their side.

When both Simmons and Embiid were on the floor this past season, Philadelphia was a mediocre plus-0.7 points per 100 possessions. It was plus-2.0 when Simmons played without Embiid and plus-11.1 when Embiid played without Simmons.

Basing an argument to move one or the other solely on those numbers isn't fair, though. The team's structure clearly didn't suit the stars. Al Horford was a terrible fit. And the shooting of Josh Richardson and Tobias Harris was far from consistent enough.

In the past, we've seen that even one top-tier floor-spacer can make a world of difference for these two.

Over the course of JJ Redick's two seasons in Philly, the Sixers were plus-14.4 points per 100 possessions when he shared the floor with Simmons and Embiid. The duo was plus-3.4 points per 100 possessions when it played without Redick.

With Redick flying around off the ball and forcing defenses to honor the three-point line, there was much more room for the two stars to operate inside. When your centerpiece is a bad shooter (or, in Simmons' case, a non-shooter), real spacers are critical.

New President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey clearly understands this, as evidenced by his recent acquisitions of Seth Curry (second in NBA history in career three-point percentage) and Danny Green (47th), as well as the unloading of Horford.

So, it should come as little surprise that Morey himself is trying to quiet the chatter about trading one of his stars.

"We got to get rid of that noise," Morey said of the rumors on 97.5 The Fanatic. "We love Ben and Joel. I think Sam Hinkie said it when he came out of his groundhog hole, that fans went through the process for those two players. Why would we try and ship them out? Doc and I are here for a reason."

Shipping Simmons or Embiid out before seeing what happens with the additional spacing Curry and Green can provide wouldn't make much sense, but let's not rule it out entirely.

Morey was something of a trade maestro in Houston (as evidenced by the 77 he made there), and his perennial MVP candidate there may want out. In early November, Charania reported that Philadelphia would pursue James Harden. And as good as a lineup with Simmons, Curry, Green, Harris and Embiid sounds, swapping Harden in for Simmons probably makes it even better (at least for the next few years).

B.S. Meter: 5-of-10

Even with the tsunami of reports that washed over fans during the first weekend of free agency, the biggest domino has yet to fall.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, the two-time MVP who'll turn 26 shortly before the season tips off, has until December 21 to sign a supermax extension with the Milwaukee Bucks.

And while the incumbent club is "cautiously confident" he'll do so, according to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, a few teams around the league are likely holding out hope he doesn't.

The Miami Heat, who walloped the Bucks in five games last postseason, are one of those teams. And it's not hard to see why. Potential spacing issues aside, the sheer talent of lineups featuring Giannis, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler would be off the charts.

So, you can't blame anyone around the organization for doing a little reading of the tea leaves.

"By the way, someone who knows Giannis well told me Giannis would be more impressed by Heat extending Bam than by making Bam wait a year for his money to get Giannis more easily," the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson tweeted Tuesday. "Bam and Giannis are friends."

Adebayo's recently reported five-year extension does indeed complicate a 2021 pursuit of Giannis, but it doesn't make it impossible. 

"The Bam Adebayo $28.1M salary in 2021/22 (and possibly more) replaces his $15.4M cap hold," ESPN's Bobby Marks tweeted. "The Heat are still going to have between $25-28M in room."

Given what we've seen from Heat president Pat Riley in the past, we shouldn't put it past him to figure out how to squeeze out whatever amount of cap space he needs to add someone like Giannis.

Of course, none of that gets to the heart of this matter. Giannis may very well be impressed that Miami took care of Adebayo ahead of restricted free agency, but that doesn't necessarily correlate to him going there.

Milwaukee just sent a massive haul of draft picks out in a deal to acquire Jrue Holiday. It's tough to imagine any front office doing that for a 30-year-old combo guard whose only All-Star appearance was in 2012-13 if it didn't have a decent feeling about being able to retain the superstar who's already there.

B.S. Meter on Giannis being impressed by Miami taking care of Bam: 1-of-10

B.S. Meter on that having a direct connection to a possible Giannis departure: 7-of-10

From the moment he arrived in Houston ahead of the 2012-13 season, Harden has had almost complete control of the organization's offense. His grip on the scheme became even tighter after the arrival of Mike D'Antoni for the 2016-17 season.

In the four seasons since, Harden has led the league in box plus/minus ("...a basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player's contribution to the team when that player is on the court," according to Basketball Reference), usage percentage and points per game.

His lowest finish in MVP voting across those four years was third place in 2019-20.

Even still, whether it's repeated playoff failures, new ownership or the overhaul of the front office and coaching staff this offseason (or perhaps some combination of all of the above), Harden reportedly wants out.

According to Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle, "Harden wants to move on from the Rockets and is trying to force his way via trade to Brooklyn."

Even without the two-year, $103 million extension Harden recently turned down, he's under contract with Houston through at least 2021-22 (he has a player option for 2022-23). He may engage in "Anthony Davis' last year with the New Orleans Pelicans"-level moping, and the Rockets wouldn't have to trade him.

How can they possibly recoup the value they're sending in a Harden deal?

They want "a proven, young star as a centerpiece along with a massive picks package," according to ESPN's Tim MacMahon, and the Nets probably can't offer that.

Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie are 26 and 27, respectively. Neither has made an All-Star team (and neither is a lock to make one in the future). Jarrett Allen is younger (22) and looks like he could be a solid anchor down the line, but "proven, young star?" That's more than a stretch.

Maybe the Nets can overcome what they lack in the player side of a package with extra picks, but they've been down that road before.

A trio of KD, Kyrie and Harden would almost certainly have more long-term viability than Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett had when Brooklyn made that infamous trade, but giving up the bulk of your future draft assets is almost always risky.

Harden is 31. Durant is 32 and coming off a ruptured Achilles. Those two and Irving are eighth, 12th and 16th, respectively, in career usage percentage (and Harden's recent marks there are far higher than his career mark).

It's difficult enough to make an offense work with just two players who dominate the ball to that degree. Adding a third may be untenable (put all three of their usage percentages over the last three seasons together and you get to 97.9 percent).

It's not necessarily a no-brainer.

Plus, if Philadelphia officially enters the fray, it can almost certainly top any Nets overtures by simply offering Simmons, a 24-year-old, 6'10" point guard who's already made two All-Star teams.

Harden may very well want to go to the Nets. That doesn't mean he'll end up there.

B.S. Meter: 6-of-10