Fantasy Football Week 10: Matt Camp's Fantasy Big Board

If we learned anything in Week 9, it's that tough matchups go both ways.

Sure, you might lower expectations when a top fantasy option is facing a strong defense, but unless you have a significantly better player to throw in your lineup, it's better to stick with what's been working.

The New England Patriots defense is on a historic run both in reality and fantasy, so with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on tap for Week 9, concerns were mounting. Not for the Patriots defense, but for Jackson's production. It was assumed by many that the Patriots would have the game plan to disrupt Jackson's fantastic season.

Of course, we know Jackson threw for 163 yards and a touchdown while adding another 61 yards and two more scores on the ground. New England may have limited the yardage, but Jackson did more than enough damage finding the end zone on three occasions. He was QB3 for the week with 28.6 fantasy points.

When in doubt, stick with the players who've been carrying you all season. Jackson is a prime example of giving too much credit to a defense and not enough credit to an offensive matchup nightmare.

Here's my first look at points-per-reception (PPR) rankings for Week 10. These will change throughout the week and up to Sunday's action as we get more information about injuries and limitations, so make sure to bookmark this page for my full rankings for all scoring formats.

I present my top 100 players (minus quarterbacks) for the week as a way to help determine your flex spots. You may favor a certain position or player over another based on his role and/or your scoring rules.

As an additional tiebreaker, here are the teams I like as a whole this week based on their matchups:

• New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
• Baltimore Ravens (at Cincinnati Bengals)
• Los Angeles Chargers (at Oakland Raiders)
• Arizona Cardinals (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Better than Usual

Jameis Winston, TB (vs. ARI)

Through nine weeks, Winston finds himself sitting at QB10 with 156.2 fantasy points (19.5 FPG). That's a better-than-expected effort, although he still feels a little dangerous to trust because of his turnover issues (12 interceptions). Last week's game in Seattle saw Winston go for 335 yards and two touchdowns on 29-of-44 passing with eight yards rushing to log a QB10 finish.

If you go with logic, Winston is a strong play this weekend. The Buccaneers host an Arizona Cardinals defense yielding the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in the last four weeks. Right behind the Cardinals in that category is Tampa Bay. That means we have two poor pass defenses facing each other, which should result in a high-scoring affair. Fire up Winston with top-five potential.

Philip Rivers, LAC (at OAK)

Rivers hasn't been bad this season, but he's been far from dominant, and that makes it tough to feel great about using him. During the Week 9 win over the Green Bay Packers, Rivers connected on 21 of his 28 attempts for 294 yards, although that didn't mean much since he didn't throw a touchdown. His 11.8-point effort didn't reflect the strong game he played, although that doesn't make up for the lack of fantasy production.

Rivers has five 300-yard efforts and two more games with at least 290 yards, and he's completing 67 percent of his passes. Unfortunately, 12 touchdowns in nine games is crushing his fantasy value. Because he's been playing well regardless of what his fantasy production has been, you should give him strong consideration Thursday night in Oakland. No team allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks in the last month than the Raiders.

Concern

Matt Ryan, ATL (at NO)

After suffering an ankle injury in Week 7, Ryan was forced to sit out the team's Week 8 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. With the Atlanta Falcons coming off the bye, there's a chance Ryan could return for Week 10, although he'd have to face the Saints in New Orleans. During the last four weeks, the Saints gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. If Ryan can go, he's a low-end starting option at best.

Better Than Usual 

David Montgomery, CHI (vs. DET)

Everything else may be going wrong with the Chicago Bears, but the commitment to Montgomery may finally be happening. After posting 14 carries for 40 yards and a pair of scores with three receptions for 36 yards on four targets in Week 9, Montgomery finished with seven receptions for 48 yards on nine targets and 41 carries for 175 yards and three scores in the last two weeks. That makes him the No. 2 running back over those two weeks with 47.3 fantasy points.

While I'm not ready to say Montgomery is the locked-in, strong No. 2 running back for the rest of the season, I do feel comfortable calling him a potential top-10 option for this week because of his opponent. The Detroit Lions have been the easiest matchup for running backs this season and third-easiest in the last four weeks. 

Considering how bad Mitchell Trubisky has been, the Bears would be wise to lean on Montgomery, especially with the matchup in his favor. It's fair to raise expectations for him this weekend.

Concerns 

Devonta Freeman, ATL (at NO)

Carries haven't been easy to come by for Freeman in the last two games in losses to the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. He ran the ball 20 times for 58 yards in those games but was able to salvage some fantasy value with 10 receptions for 69 yards on 11 targets. While his role in the passing game has always been an important part of his fantasy value, it feels like Freeman must have a big role as a receiver to get into the RB2 conversation. 

Those carries could be hard to find if the Falcons can't keep pace with the New Orleans Saints. Getting Matt Ryan (ankle) back in the lineup would be ideal, but that doesn't mean the Falcons defense will keep the game close. When Freeman does get carries, he'll face a defense that's been the toughest matchup for fantasy backs in the last four weeks. You might be better off calling Freeman a flex option for Week 10.

Todd Gurley II, LAR (at PIT)

You may not want to hear this, but Gurley has turned into Derrick Henry. For the season, Gurley has just 15 receptions for 81 yards, but in the last two games he has one reception for 13 yards on two targets. In those games, Gurley rushed 28 times for 85 yards and a score. Other than 97 rushing yards in Week 1, Gurley doesn't have another game with more than 63 yards on the ground. 

Because Gurley isn't getting targets and is so touchdown-reliant, it's a bit more concerning when he's walking into a difficult matchup. The Steelers have been giving running backs fits in the last four weeks, as the unit has been the second-toughest for fantasy backs to face in that span. Obviously, you're not benching Gurley, although you're probably looking at a lower ceiling for him this weekend.

Better Than Usual

Mike Williams, LAC (at OAK)

Averaging 3.6 receptions per game isn't ideal for fantasy production, but that's what we've come to expect from Williams. The positive is his ability to eat up yards. He's racked up 530 yards (18.3 yards per catch). Austin Ekeler has the same amount but needed 55 receptions to get there. Williams is coming off arguably his best game of the season with 111 yards on three receptions. 

He has at least 69 yards in five games this season, including four of the last five games. He'll have a great chance to stay hot—in the best possible matchup for wide receivers—against the Oakland Raiders. That unit has given up more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other defense in the last four weeks and the second-most fantasy points to the position on the season. It's a high-ceiling game for Williams, and he can be treated as a WR2.

Golden Tate, NYG (at NYJ)

The New York Giants thought they were getting Sterling Shepard back in Week 9, but he landed back in concussion protocol before the Monday night game with the Dallas Cowboys. As a result, he was held out and his status is in question. Plus, tight end Evan Engram's status is up in the air because of a recurring foot injury. That means Tate's busy season should continue this week in a great matchup with the New York Jets.

In five games since returning from suspension, Tate has at least six targets in every game and at least six receptions in each of his last four games. Before last week, he had at least 80 yards in three straight contests, all of which came with Shepard out of action.

Shepard's absence and the possibility that Engram will also sit out are good reasons to expect a lot out of Tate, but he gets an even bigger bump from facing the Jets. Only the Raiders and Buccaneers yielded more points to wide receivers in the last month. Fire up Tate with strong WR2 projections.

Concern

Odell Beckham Jr., CLE (vs. BUF)

Beckham's disappointing season has been reason enough to be concerned about him on a weekly basis. He's coming off a solid five-reception, 87-yard effort in a loss to the Denver Broncos, but that was only the third time this season he hit the 80-yard mark. Beckham still hasn't scored since Week 2, and he'll head into a rough battle in Week 10 against the Buffalo Bills. 

A big part of the Bills' success this season comes from the defense. The last four weeks have seen Buffalo perform as the sixth-toughest matchup for wide receivers, and on the season, it's been the third-best pass defense. Between Baker Mayfield's struggles, shaky play-calling and this matchup, you have to be worried about Beckham this week. He remains a volatile WR2.

Better Than Usual

Greg Olsen, CAR (at GB)

Instead of holding out hope, the Carolina Panthers put Cam Newton on injured reserve this week, which means we can completely focus on Kyle Allen remaining starter. It's interesting to note Olsen had nine targets in each of his first two games of the season, which were with Newton. Since then, he's hit the five-target mark just three times and never had more than seven in a single game.

For those reasons, you may need a nudge in the right direction to stick with Olsen against the Green Bay Packers. While the Arizona Cardinals have been known as the best matchup for tight ends for nearly the entire season, the Packers have taken over that spot in the last four weeks. Olsen is TE12 for the season, but he's easily inside the top 10 for Week 10.

Jared Cook, NO (vs. ATL)

If Cook can return to action following a two-game absence related to an ankle injury, he'd be doing so with a tremendous matchup at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Plus, Cook would have the services of Drew Brees for the first time since Brees went down early in Week 2.

Cook's disappointing start to the season appeared to be changing for the better in the two games prior to his injury. He scored in each game while turning nine targets into seven receptions for 78 yards. The Falcons have been average against tight ends in the last month, but the team's pass defense as a whole is one of the 10 worst in the league. A healthy Cook is worth a look at a thin position.

Concern

Chris Herndon, NYJ (vs. NYG)

Even though he was active in Week 9, the New York Jets didn't put Herndon on the field, so his season-long absence continued for another week. His hamstring injury was still bad enough to keep Herndon from taking a snap in a loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, so you can't assume he'll play against the New York Giants this Sunday. Even if Herndon returns, he needs to overcome the shaky play of Sam Darnold to work his way into the top-10 conversation.

Best Streaming Option 

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami Dolphins)

For once, following the Miami Dolphins didn't work, but that was more of an indictment of how bad the New York Jets are than the Dolphins turning the corner. You should go right back to targeting the Dolphins in Week 10 with the Colts defense. In the last month, the Dolphins allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to defenses, and on the season, only the Jets have allowed more. The Colts are the top plug-and-play option this week. 

Ownership percentage: ESPN, 37.7; Yahoo, 40.0

Best Streaming Option 

Michael Badgley, LAC (at OAK)

The Los Angeles Chargers stuck by Badgley for eight weeks until his groin was sufficiently healed for him to make his season debut in Week 9. Badgley had a busy and productive day, with four field goals on five attempts and a pair of extra points. Between this being a matchup that clearly favors the Chargers offense and Badgley missing just two of his last 21 attempts, you can pick him up to play him with confidence.

Ownership percentages: ESPN, 30.8; Yahoo, 7.0