Top College Basketball Programs in Danger of Missing the 2019 NCAA Tournament

The Xavier Musketeers were a No. 1 seed in the 2018 NCAA tournament, but they are almost No. 1 on our list of top teams most likely to miss this year's Big Dance.

By "top teams" we mean programs who fit one of the following two pools of candidates:

• Preseason AP Top 25 teams, or
• Teams who have competed in at least eight of the last 10 NCAA tournaments.

Had we gone with just the first pool, Arizona, Butler, VCU and Xavier would have been excluded from consideration, despite near-annual showings in the field of 68. Conversely, only using the second pool would have eliminated teams like Clemson, Oregon and Washington despite an offseason of everyone telling us they could or should reach the Sweet 16.

So, we're including both groups, ranking the teams in order of most to least likely to reach the 2019 NCAA tournament.

One team worth mentioning that didn't qualify in either group is Wichita State. The Shockers have been in each of the last seven NCAA tournaments, but they had missed five in a row before that. And they (deservedly) did not appear on any preseason AP Top 25 ballots this year. They would have been No. 1 on this list if eligible, though.

Tournament Resume: 13-5, NET: 50, KP: 38, SOS: 35

Three Best Wins: at Duke, at Ohio State, vs. Pittsburgh

Three Worst Losses: vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Old Dominion, vs. Connecticut

Syracuse hit the jackpot with an overtime road win over Duke, but the Orange can't afford to simply hang their hat on that game and mail it in from here.

After all, they entered that game on the wrong side of the projected cut line thanks to four losses to teams outside the at-large picture and only one noteworthy victory—a road win over Ohio State that is rapidly losing value during the Buckeyes' current five-game losing streak.

Even after the win over Duke and the subsequent decent win over Pittsburgh, Syracuse is still a borderline NET top-50 team with a ton of large hurdles remaining. The Orange play at Virginia Tech on Saturday and have a brutal seven-game stretch at the end of the regular season featuring road games against NC State, North Carolina and Clemson, and home games against Louisville, Duke and Virginia.

If they lose all seven of those games, their best-case scenario would be entering the ACC tournament with a 19-12 record, a great road victory over Duke and a handful of good-not-great wins.

Given the way the selection committee has handled Syracuse in recent years, maybe that's enough for the Orange to get in again. But they would be on shaky ground if they don't pick up at least one or two more quality wins.

Tournament Resume: 14-4, NET: 40, KP: 48, SOS: 59

Three Best Wins: at Colorado, at Utah, vs. Texas A&M

Three Worst Losses: vs. Minnesota, vs. Virginia Tech, at Auburn

If only Washington could have won that game at Gonzaga.

The Huskies battled back from a late 11-point deficit to tie the game, but Rui Hachimura hit the game-winner to improve the Zags to 9-0. UW came so close to one of the best wins you can possibly have on a tournament resume.

Instead, they fell a bucket short and ended up with a 9-4 nonconference record and nothing better than a neutral-site win over Texas A&M, which is 7-10 overall and going nowhere fast.

The good news is the Huskies didn't suffer any bad losses. The neutral-site loss to Minnesota wasn't great, but it wasn't terrible. And there's nothing wrong with dropping games away from home against Gonzaga, Auburn and Virginia Tech. Thus far, they clearly look like the best team in the Pac-12, too.

The bad news is they entered Thursday's road game against Oregon without a single NET top-100 win, and there aren't many to be found in the Pac-12.

Outside of the early February road trip to Arizona and Arizona State, Washington isn't going to get a chance to prove anything—and with both of those teams currently outside the NET top 50, those aren't exactly instant resume-boosting opportunities. Washington could go 16-2 in league play, and the two losses would probably raise questions marks more than the 16 wins would confirm this team belongs in the tournament.

It's not the Huskies' fault that this conference is a disaster, but they need to be just as flawless in league play as any other mid-major team hoping to secure an at-large bid, if necessary.

Tournament Resume: 12-8, NET: 48, KP: 44, SOS: 22

Three Best Wins: vs. Ole Miss, vs. Florida, vs. St. John's

Three Worst Losses: vs. Georgetown, vs. Dayton, at Xavier

No team lives and dies based on the performance of one player quite like Butler does with Kamar Baldwin.

When Baldwin plays well, the Bulldogs are almost unbeatable. He has had a KenPom O-rating of better than 100 on 13 occasions this season, and Butler is 12-1 with a one-point road loss in those games. But in seven games when Baldwin has a sub-100 O-rating—all have been 89 or worse—Butler is winless.

That isn't to say Butler is a one-man show. Since becoming eligible in mid-December, Duke transfer Jordan Tucker has emerged as a strong second fiddle, shooting 43.8 percent from three-point range. Paul Jorgensen and Sean McDermott both average better than 10 points per game, and sophomore center Joey Brunk has had his moments. The Bulldogs have a surprisingly efficient offense, given how often their leading scorer struggles.

But Baldwin has been the difference in close games, and not in a good way. Butler is 2-6 in games decided by eight points or fewer and 0-4 in games decided by either one or two possessions. Had the Bulldogs been just a little bit better against Seton Hall, Indiana, Dayton or Xavier, they're on the right side of the bubble. Had they won all four of those games, they'd probably be something in the vicinity of a No. 6 seed.

They aren't, though. Instead, they already have eight losses with only one Quadrant 1 win, and they still need to play tough road games against Creighton, St. John's, Marquette, Villanova and Providence. Even if they win the other six and finish 9-9 in Big East play, the Bulldogs are likely to miss the tournament if they go 0-5 in those road games.

Tournament Resume: 14-5, NET: 54, KP: 52, SOS: 73

Three Best Wins: vs. Iowa State, at Connecticut, vs. Oregon State

Three Worst Losses: vs. Oregon, vs. Baylor, at Alabama

Arizona opened the season smack dab on the bubble, and the Wildcats haven't done much of anything to change that.

The come-from-behind win over Iowa State in the first round of the Maui Invitational was impressive, but what has Arizona done in the past two months? Wins over the likes of Connecticut, Colorado and Oregon State don't do much to move the needle, particularly when combined with the above three losses to teams that are on the bubble, at best.

The Wildcats have decent NET and KenPom rankings and a better record than most of the teams on this list, but this doesn't feel like a typical major-conference resume. The dearth of quality wins—and the limited number of opportunities remaining in the next seven weeks—make it feel like we're looking at a Saint Mary's or a Wichita State profile from recent years, in which a team with just one good win, a couple of questionable losses and a bunch of Quadrant 3 and 4 wins is hopeful that'll be enough to impress the committee.

Arizona has a road game against Arizona State next Thursday and a home game against Washington the Thursday after that. Those will be probably this team's only remaining chances to add Quadrant 1 wins, and even that's no guarantee if either the Sun Devils or the Huskies slide 10-15 (or more) spots in the NET rankings.

The Wildcats probably need to at least get a split in those two upcoming games and can only afford to lose a maximum of two more games after that if they want to remain in the conversation for a bid.

Tournament Resume: 11-7, NET: 59, KP: 51, SOS: 28

Three Best Wins: vs. Lipscomb, at South Carolina, vs. Radford

Three Worst Losses: vs. Creighton, vs. Nebraska, at Syracuse

It was nice to see Clemson avoid the bubble last year, comfortably getting into the NCAA tournament as a No. 5 seed. But the Tigers have reverted to their 2014 and 2017 ways of hanging around 50th place on KenPom with a profile that has neither quality wins nor terrible losses.

With all due respect to a Lipscomb team enjoying its best season in program history, when a home win over the minor-conference Bisons is the best thing about your resume, you're in more than a little bit of bubble trouble. South Carolina has done its in-state rival a solid by starting out 5-1 in SEC play, increasing the value of Clemson's road win over the Gamecocks in late December. But that win and the Lipscomb win are Clemson's only Quadrant 2 wins.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are 0-6 in Quadrant 1 games after blowing a big opportunity at Florida State this past Tuesday. Clemson led for the majority of the first 30 minutes but went ice cold midway through the second half. The Seminoles went on an 18-4 run, snapping out of a funk of their own for a much-needed victory.

The Tigers are now 1-4 in ACC play with just a home win over Georgia Tech that doesn't count for much. They should win remaining home games against Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and Boston College, but they're going to need to find at least five other wins if they want to turn this season around and return to the Big Dance.

This Saturday's road game against NC State is one of the toughest games left on their schedule, but that means it's a chance to get a season-altering win. They had better capitalize on that.

Tournament Resume: 11-7, NET: 67, KP: 53, SOS: 69

Three Best Wins: at Arizona, vs. Syracuse, vs. USC

Three Worst Losses: vs. Texas Southern, vs. UCLA, vs. Oregon State

Oregon deserved better than this.

The Ducks had the third-best recruiting class in the nation, led by 5-star big man Bol Bol and 5-star wing Louis King. But we never got a chance to see this team play a meaningful game at full strength. King missed the first seven contests while recovering from a meniscus injury. Less than a week after he made his debut, the Ducks lost Bol for the year to a foot injury. They later had to play a few weeks without Kenny Wooten due to a fractured jaw.

It didn't even take seven weeks for the injury bug to bite three of the four most important players on the roster.

As a result, Oregon suffered an embarrassing home loss to Texas Southern and only picked up one nonconference win worth anything at all, a neutral-site game against Syracuse. And with both Bol and Wooten out of the lineup, it began Pac-12 play with back-to-back disappointing home losses to Oregon State and UCLA.

Even though the Ducks have a decent win-loss record and computer metrics that aren't bad—Minnesota is No. 66 in NET and No. 62 on KenPom and the Golden Gophers still look like a tournament team—it's hard to imagine they'll be able to bounce back from this start. It might be feasible if they still had Bol, but they've had too much difficulty adjusting to life without him. They might finish in the top half of the Pac-12 standings, but that's nowhere near enough this year.

Tournament Resume: 13-6, NET: 57, KP: 58, SOS: 31

Three Best Wins: at Texas, vs. Temple, vs. Hofstra

Three Worst Losses: vs. Charleston, at Old Dominion, at Rhode Island

VCU has one of the best defenses in the country. The Rams rank fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency with a better rating (88.3) than even the best Shaka Smart-led season of HAVOC (89.4). They've held 12 opponents under 65 points and had a 13th game against Hofstra that would have qualified if it hadn't ended 69-67 in overtime.

But this team is a total disaster on offense, which has resulted in missed opportunities against Virginia and St. John's, as well as a handful of bad losses.

In their latest misstep at Rhode Island, the VCU Rams shot 43 percent from the field, went 2-of-12 from three-point range and committed 19 turnovers, wasting a defensive effort of eight steals and nine blocks. Rhode Island wasn't any better on offense, shooting 41 percent with just one made three, but those VCU turnovers—as they have been often this season—were fatal.

VCU does have a couple of nice wins over Texas and Temple, but the A-10 just isn't doing the Rams any favors this year. It has been a multi-bid league in each of the last 13 years, but there is not a good at-large candidate in the conference this season—certainly not after VCU, Saint Louis and Dayton all suffered losses Wednesday night.

The Rams are probably the favorites to secure the league's auto bid, but they would almost need to win all of their remaining regular-season games to have a real case for an at-large bid, since it doesn't look they will get to play another Quadrant 1 game the rest of the way.

Tournament Resume: 11-9, NET: 83, KP: 81, SOS: 37

Three Best Wins: vs. Butler, at DePaul, vs. Illinois

Three Worst Losses: vs. San Diego State, vs. Seton Hall, vs. Providence

It's rare to see Xavier struggle like this.

The Musketeers have been to the NCAA tournament in 12 of the last 13 seasons. Their last sub-.500 season was in 1995-96, and that was the only one in the past 37 years.

But losing five out of last year's seven leading scorers and head coach Chris Mack this summer was just too much attrition for the 2018 No. 1 seed to overcome. The X-Men have had issues all season long, and even in recent home wins over Georgetown and Butler, they trailed the Hoyas by 17 in the first half and were down a dozen to the Bulldogs with 15 minutes remaining before needing to mount furious comebacks.

Like several other teams on this list, Xavier has blown every opportunity to make a positive statement. The Musketeers are 0-6 in Quadrant 1 games, and with the exception of taking Auburn to overtime in Maui before losing by nine, none of them were particularly close.

Even though they are No. 3 on our list, there still is a little bit of hope, though.

Wednesday night's home loss to Providence certainly didn't help matters, but the neutral-site loss to San Diego State is the only ugly defeat Xavier has taken this season. And with the Big East having such a mediocre year from top to bottom, it's at least conceivable that the Musketeers could make some adjustments and go 8-3 the rest of the way. Considering the Pac-12 isn't doing much to get us to 68 teams this year, that might be enough.

If they happen to win Saturday's home game against Marquette, it could be the start of a big winning streak, as their next game against a KenPom top-50 team won't come until Feb. 24. But if Xavier loses to the Golden Eagles, you can probably go ahead and start writing its obituary.

Tournament Resume: 10-8, NET: 109, KP: 86, SOS: 27

Three Best Wins: at Oregon, vs. Notre Dame, vs. Stanford

Three Worst Losses: vs. Belmont, vs. Liberty, at USC

The cream of the Pac-12's crop of crappy tournament resumes is UCLA.

Not only do the Bruins have eight losses without a single quality win, but seven of those eight losses also were blowouts by a margin of at least 13 points. The lone exception was the close call at home against Belmont, but that was the straw that broke this camel's back. Right after that, the Bruins lost three straight to Cincinnati, Ohio State and Liberty before throwing in the towel and firing Steve Alford.

Also, only two of the losses (Michigan State and North Carolina) were against teams that are definitely going to make the tournament. Cincinnati and Ohio State would get in if it started today, but they're both No. 9 seeds in the latest Bracket Matrix update. Belmont, Liberty, Oregon State and USC, on the other hand, have little to no argument for an at-large bid.

Maybe the Bruins could still turn this thing around if there were quality wins to be found in the Pac-12. Given how bad this league is from top to bottom, though, UCLA could win every game between now and the conference championship and would still have a bubble resume at best.

For just the sixth time in the last 31 years, these Bruins won't be in the NCAA tournament.

Tournament Resume: 9-10, NET: 95, KP: 85, SOS: 19

Three Best Wins: vs. Kansas, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Saint Joseph's

Three Worst Losses: vs. Rhode Island, vs. Western Kentucky, vs. Oklahoma State

West Virginia meets both of the criteria for being a top team. The Mountaineers were No. 14 in the preseason AP poll and have played in eight of the past 10 NCAA tournaments.

But that recent history isn't going to save them from a sub-.500 season and a spot on the couch watching the Big Dance from home.

With Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles Jr. out of the picture, West Virginia went straight from four years as one of the most aggressive, impossible-to-navigate defenses in the country to a team that isn't all that tough to score against. The Mountaineers have given up at least 85 points in three of their last four games, two of which were home losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor—theoretically the two easiest games on their entire Big 12 schedule.

Granted, the other contest during that four-game stretch was their inexplicable 65-64 win over Kansas, but that wasn't anywhere close to enough to save this season. They would probably need to win at least nine of their remaining 12 games, which would be quite the feat considering KenPom has West Virginia projected to lose each of its remaining games.

Even if the Mountaineers go 3-9 the rest of the way, it'll still be the program's worst winning percentage since going 8-20 in 2001-02.

NET, KenPom and SOS rankings current through the start of play on Thursday, Jan. 24.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.