Buying or Selling Top Contenders for 2022 College Football Playoff

The middle of May is the quietest time on the college football calendar. Spring practice is over, fall camp is months away and we're left only to imagine the upcoming season.

Predicting the national champion is always on the mind, though.

When the 2022 College Football Playoff ends, will Georgia have completed a back-to-back run? Will any of Alabama, Clemson or Ohio State have reclaimed the throne? Will a breakout candidate—perhaps Texas A&M, USC or Utah—have met its best-case scenario?

Based on DraftKings' odds (accurate as of May 16), we're buying or selling the current top-15 title contenders in 2022.

Florida Gators (+6000)

The question for Florida is simple: Can you navigate Georgia? Last year, the rival Dawgs stomped the Gators 34-7 en route to a national championship. As is the case with most coaching hires, Billy Napier's arrival has brought a wave of optimism. But predicting a CFP trip—let alone a title—in his debut season would be incredibly bold.

Verdict: Sell

Penn State Nittany Lions (+6000)

Longtime quarterback Sean Clifford is back for a sixth year at Penn State, which started 5-0 last season before finishing 7-6. The major concern for the Nittany Lions is the offensive line, considering they ranked 117th in yards per carry in 2021. On paper, it's hard to get worse. In reality, there's no guarantee for improvement, particularly since Penn State shares a division with Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State and travels to Auburn.

Verdict: Sell

LSU Tigers (+5500)

The schedule is unkind to LSU next season. During conference play, the Tigers head to Auburn, Florida and Texas A&M. Although they host Alabama, location doesn't much matter with a 1-9 regular-season mark against Nick Saban's team over the past decade. Nine wins would be a strong year for Brian Kelly in his LSU debut.

Verdict: Sell

Oregon Ducks (+5500)

Yes, the Ducks open the season with a not-so-neutral site clash with Georgia in Atlanta. Lose there, and their margin for error is slim. Nevertheless, a heavy majority of Oregon's expected toughest games—BYU, UCLA, Washington and Utah—are in Eugene. Both the offensive line and linebacker units should be among the best in the Pac-12, too. The QB situation is enough reason to sell, but you could dream up a path to the CFP for the Ducks.

Verdict: Sell

Wisconsin Badgers (+5000)

Until proven otherwise, Wisconsin will be viewed as a consistently competitive team that is prone to a few meltdowns offensively. That perception can change, but it's largely dependent on the passing game. Graham Mertz averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt last season, and Chimere Dike is the lone returning player who collected at least 100 receiving yards in 2021.

Verdict: Sell

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+4500)

Similar to Oregon, Notre Dame is preparing for an immensely challenging opener at Ohio State. The good news for the Fighting Irish is the rest of the schedule is quite manageable after that trip to Columbus. If either Tyler Buchner or Drew Pyne impress at QB, the defensive-driven Irish can enter a November slate that includes Clemson (home) and USC (away) on the edge of the CFP picture.

Verdict: Buy

Utah Utes (+4500)

The reigning Pac-12 champions lost several key pieces, but Cam Rising and Tavion Thomas form a dynamic QB-RB combination. They'll be the foundation of the roster for the Utes, which begin 2022 at Florida but otherwise have a few winnable games—though San Diego State isn't to be taken lightly—before the level of competition rises in October.

Verdict: Buy

Michigan Wolverines (+4000)

Be ready for U-M to have a perpetual QB storyline, especially since a shoulder injury limited J.J. McCarthy in the spring. McCarthy, a 5-star prospect in 2021, will be pushing to replace Cade McNamara, the starter of last season's Big Ten champion team. Not only do the Wolverines begin the season with four favorable home games, they only travel four times in 2022. Iowa and Ohio State will be difficult trips, but Michigan has another big opportunity ahead.

Verdict: Buy

Oklahoma Sooners (+3500)

Other than UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel at QB, Oklahoma has questions on basically every unit. Despite that—and 2022 being Brent Venables' first season back in Norman—the Sooners remain the Big 12 front-runner. When an annual conference favorite has these odds, it's worth consideration.

Verdict: Buy

USC Trojans (+3000)

The best moment to leap aboard the bandwagon is probably before the season begins. USC alternates home and road contests with Rice, Stanford, Fresno State, Oregon State and Arizona State to start 2022, so there's a path to 5-0. However, the Trojans are an unproven group that is leaning heavily on transfers. Everything meshing perfectly in Lincoln Riley's first season will be a huge challenge.

Verdict: Sell

Texas A&M Aggies (+2800)

Texas A&M beat Alabama last season and upgraded at quarterback with LSU transfer Max Johnson. Sure, the defensive line must be retooled. Yes, the Aggies lost their top running back and pass-catcher. But that initial combination plus the highest-rated recruiting class in history and home-leaning schedule give Texas A&M an intriguing outlook in 2022.

Verdict: Buy

Clemson Tigers (+1200)

Very fittingly, Clemson is safely ahead of the previous group but noticeably behind the leading trio.

Although the Tigers didn't win the ACC in 2021—ending a six-year streak—they're still the league favorite. The primary reason for that is Clemson should have one of the nation's top defenses, mostly because of a preposterously stacked D-line.

On the other hand, Clemson has much to prove offensively after the unit ranked 103rd nationally in yards per play and 82nd in points per game last season. Marked progression, notably for quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, needs to happen as the offense also shifts from longtime play-caller Tony Elliott to Brandon Streeter.

Clemson simply must navigate back-to-back games at Wake Forest (Sep. 24) and home to North Carolina State (Oct. 1). Do that, and the Tigers figure to rejoin the CFP discussion.

Verdict: Buy

Ohio State Buckeyes (+450)

If the Buckeyes win the national title, it'll likely mean their defense made substantial improvements under first-year coordinator Jim Knowles. However, the strength of this roster is clearly in quarterback C.J. Stroud, running back TreVeyon Henderson and wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Good luck finding a better QB-RB-WR trio.

Verdict: Buy

Georgia Bulldogs (+340)

Considering what Georgia lost to the NFL, a repeat championship would be hard-earned. Other than Alabama, though, no program has recruited at a high level as consistently as UGA, meaning the Dawgs have the talent to make another run. As if that's not enough, Kirby Smart's 58-10 record in the last half-decade should help.

Verdict: Buy

Alabama Crimson Tide (+200)

Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Bryce Young and award-stacking edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr. are probably the nation's two best players. Alabama has reached the College Football Playoff seven times in its eight-year history. Let's not overthink this.

Verdict: Buy

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