UFC 272 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds, Predictions for Covington vs. Masvidal
UFC 272 may not have a title on the line, but there's plenty at stake with Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal meeting up in the main event.
There's been no shortage of trash talk between the two combatants. The training-partners-turned-enemies have done more than their fair share of selling the fight. Now there's a lot of pride on the line as both attempt to come back from losses to welterweight champion Kamaru Usman.
Elsewhere on the card, Renato Moicano will try to pick up wins on back-to-back pay-per-view cards. He will step up on four days' notice to take on Rafael dos Anjos after Rafael Fiziev was forced off the card due to a positive COVID-19 test.
Bryce Mitchell will also return to the Octagon against Edson Barboza, while Greg Hardy will try to snap a two-fight skid against Serghei Spivac.
Each of these fights will help answer and be determined by a central question. Here's a look at the whole card and the key questions that will be answered.
UFC 272 Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
Main Card (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET)
- Colby Covington -335 (wager $335 to win $100) vs. Jorge Masvidal +260 (wager $100 to win $260)
- Rafael dos Anjos -180 vs. Renato Moicano +155
- Edson Barboza +135 vs. Bryce Mitchell -165
- Kevin Holland -365 vs. Alex Oliveira +280
- Serghei Spivac -200 vs. Greg Hardy +170
Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET)
- Jalin Turner -150 vs. Jamie Mullarkey +130
- Marina Rodriguez -260 vs. Yan Xiaonan +210
- Nicolae Negumereanu +115 vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu -135
- Maryna Moroz +150 vs. Mariya Agapova -170
Early Prelims (UFC Fight Pass at 6 p.m. ET)
- Brian Kelleher +500 vs. Umar Nurmagomedov -720
- Tim Elliott +200 vs. Tagir Ulanbekov -250
- Devonte Smith -150 vs. Ludovit Klein +130
- Dustin Jacoby -200 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk +170
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Will Emotions Get the Better of Masvidal or Covington?
Pre-fight hype and promotional soundbites usually don't wind up finding their way into the cage. For the most part, fights play out within the confines of the stylistic and talent differences of the fighters in question.
Every now and then, though, emotions play their part.
Looking objectively at the matchup between Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal, the most obvious outcome is Covington utilizing his wrestling and pressure to wear down Masvidal.
That is unless Covington wants to get into a firefight to prove a point against Masvidal. Or Gamebred decides to let his hands go in a way that gets him taken down because he's too eager to score the knockout.
The worst thing that could happen for Masvidal is an adrenaline dump after going for an early knockout.
Ultimately, these two aren't aren't unfamiliar with heated fights. Covington has made getting under his opponent's skin his schtick, and Masvidal isn't a stranger to intense buildups either.
This one most likely plays out as the odds indicate. Covington doing his thing and frustrating Masvidal in the process.
Prediction: Covington via decision
What Does Dos Anjos Have Left?
Rafael dos Anjos has made the walk to the Octagon 30 times in his career. When he makes that 31st walk in the main event, it will be first time in well over a year. The Brazilian hasn't fought since November 2020, when he earned a split-decision over Paul Felder.
In his prime, this wouldn't be much of a matchup. RDA's pace, pressure and grappling ability would have been too much for a former featherweight like Renato Moicano.
But this is not his prime. At some point, the wear and tear is going to show. Going against a fighter in Moicano who is much lighter, quicker and has good boxing is going to put RDA's movement to the test.
This co-main event is a good barometer for where Dos Anjos is these days and whether he's truly lost a step.
If he hasn't, this could be a fairly one-sided affair with Moicano stepping in on such short notice.
Prediction: Moicano via decision
Can Mitchell Close the Distance on Barboza?
Bryce Mitchell is 14-0 in his career, but he's undoubtedly facing the biggest threat to that zero in his record to date in Edson Barboza.
Mitchell's best UFC win came against Andre Fili in his last bout. That took place all the way back in October 2020. He has taken more than a year off as he recovers from a hand injury that required surgery.
He's welcomed back by a tricky out in the featherweight division. Barboza is the definition of a savvy veteran. He has fallen off a bit as he is now 36 years old, but the striking that he brings to the table could present problems for Mitchell.
Thug Nasty is a strong grappler, with nine of his 14 wins coming by submission. If he is able to get Barboza to the ground, he will hold a major advantage.
Barboza's kicking game shouldn't be discounted in this spot, though. He has the best striking of anyone Mitchell has fended off before.
However, he has dropped four of his last six fights, so it's not exactly a spot where you expect Barboza to win even if there's a clear path for him to do so.
Prediction: Mitchell via second-round submission
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