Predicting the NFL's Most Surprising Cuts of the 2022 Offseason

The NFL calendar hasn't officially turned to 2022 yet. But make no mistake: General managers all across the league are already living in the now.

And for many of them, the first order of business is to create cap space, whether it's to get a team into compliance with the salary cap or make room to re-sign players or potentially add free agents down the road.

There are multiple ways to create cap space, and one of the most-often used is to restructure contracts—converting salary into bonuses that can be spread out over the life of the deal. There will be a lot of that in the days and weeks to come.

But sometimes that isn't enough, and teams take the next step. A much more permanent one. They release players outright.

Now, there are some players with bloated contracts who are obvious candidates to be released. When that day comes, very few eyebrows are going to go up.

But there are some other players who could be shown the door and would leave more than a few jaws scraping the ground: Pro Bowl-caliber players who for whatever reason (age, recent performance, injury history, salary or some combination of them all) could soon find themselves caught in a salary-cap crunch.

2022 Cap Hit: $20.4 million

Potential Savings: $16.6 million

The days of the Legion of Boom defense in Seattle are long gone. Whether it's cornerback Richard Sherman or safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas, most of the linchpins on that defense are either on another team or out of the NFL altogether.

However, there is one holdover—one veteran who remains from the team that won a championship and played in back-to-back Super Bowls.

Inside linebacker Bobby Wagner.

Wagner's best days may be behind him, but he remains a very productive player—his 170 total tackles ranked third in the league a year ago. But as Matt Calkins wrote for the Seattle Times, even Wagner admitted after last year's disappointing record that his days in the Emerald City may be numbered.

"We didn't plan for the season to go this way," Wagner said. "And so obviously there's going to be changes. And whether or not I'm part of those changes, I don't know."

It would no doubt be hard for the "12s" to see one of the team's all-time greats get let go. But there are multiple reasons why it's a genuine possibility.

The first is Wagner's gaudy cap hit of $20.4 million—second on the team to Russell Wilson. It's a cap-killer of a deal for a player who doesn't man one of the premium positions. And as Calkins relayed, Wagner may not be interested in a pay cut.

"I said I'm a businessman," Wagner said. "That's all I said—I'd put my business cap on. I did not say I was [reworking my deal]."

With a younger, cheaper player already on the roster who could step in at "Mike" in Jordyn Brooks, the wisest move for the Seahawks may be to finally close the book on the "LOB" once and for all.

2022 Cap Hit: $22 million

Potential Savings: $16 million

The Dallas Cowboys are annually one of the NFL's most talked-about teams in the offseason. 2022 is no different. Much of the conversation has centered around how the Cowboys will clear the $21 million needed to get under this year's salary cap off the books. And that has led to quite a bit of speculation regarding the future of two big names—edge-rusher DeMarcus Lawrence and wide receiver Amari Cooper.

Speculation regarding the latter only increased after Dallas Executive Vice President Stephen Jones insinuated at the Senior Bowl that Cooper's so-so 2021 production (68 receptions, 865 yards, eight touchdowns) wasn't up to par with his lofty salary.

"It sometimes not all on the receiver," Jones said, per Jon Machota of The Athletic. "It's scheme. It's getting the receiver the ball. It's the targets. ... But if you're going to pay somebody a lot of money, you want them to be the best at what they do ... with that comes high expectations."

Shade aside, releasing Cooper would be a risky move for the Cowboys. Sure, it would go a long way toward fixing the team's cap issues, but with Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, Noah Brown and Malik Turner all about to hit free agency, cutting Cooper would leave CeeDee Lamb as the only wideout under contract in Dallas who caught a pass in a game last season.

However, the Cowboys have reportedly made it a priority to re-up Gallup, and with other looming free agents like edge-rusher Randy Gregory and a deep crop of free-agent pass-catchers this year, it's possible that Jones' comments are more than a throwaway line at a college all-star game.

2022 Cap Hit: $19.7 million

Potential Savings: $12.5 million

For the third straight season, the Green Bay Packers won 13 games. And edge-rusher Preston Smith played a sizable role in that success, finishing second on the team with nine sacks.

Those nine sacks were the second-most of Smith's career, and per Bill Huber of Packer Central, then-OLB coach Mike Smith lauded the 29-year-old as a true pro's pro:

"When the [2020] season was over, he sat down with me and we had a long talk, and he knew what he had to come out and do this year. That's the thing I love about Preston. He doesn't have an ego or nothing like that. He's not sensitive. I can call him in, tell him what I thought about practice and if it was good or it was bad, all that type stuff, and he takes what it is. That's one thing I like about Preston."

Smith isn't the kind of player a contending team like the Packers wants to part with. The problem is that it's entirely possible they won't have a choice.

Green Bay's salary-cap situation is rather a mess—only the New Orleans Saints are further in the red against the salary cap than the Pack, and that's before taking a potential extension for star receiver Davante Adams into consideration.

Both Smith and fellow edge-rusher Za'Darius Smith are headed into the final year of their contracts. Both carry cap numbers in excess of $19 million. But even after missing almost the entire 2021 season, Za'Darius has more sacks the past three years than Preston and carries a significantly higher dead cap number.

An extension or restructure would be preferable, but the Packers could be staring at some difficult decisions in the coming weeks.

2022 Cap Hit: $16.4 million

Potential Savings: $14.9 million

In quite a few respects, it wouldn't be at all surprising if Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry is shown the door in the offseason.

The 29-year-old is coming off the worst season of his eight-year professional career. Landry missed five games and set career lows in receptions (52), receiving yards (570) and receiving touchdowns (two).

Not a great return on investment for a player with a higher cap number in 2022 than any player on the Browns not named Baker Mayfield.

Lack of production wasn't the only issue with Landry last year. He clearly wasn't happy when Odell Beckham Jr. was released, and at his Thanksgiving food drive, Landry also mentioned he wasn't especially pleased with his role in Cleveland's offense, either.

"I haven't been getting the ball so much, either," he said, per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. "But at the end of the day, I've been able to do with the opportunities I'm given. Yeah, I'm battling some things, but on Sunday, I always give everything that I have, and that won't ever change."

That was the last time Landry spoke publicly with reporters.

However, there is still one factor that would make Landry's release a surprise, despite all the reasons why it could be the right move for player and team.

Simply put, the wideout corps in Cleveland is one of the weakest in the league with Landry on the roster. There was one player on Cleveland's roster who topped 50 catches in 2021—Landry. Only two pass-catchers eclipsed 500 receiving yards—Landry and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

The Browns could save a lot of cash against the cap by releasing Landry. But unless that money is put back into the position (and then some), any financial savings will be overshadowed by a gaping void on the roster.

2022 Cap Hit: $13.4 million

Potential Savings: $11.5 million (post-June 1 cut)

There's little arguing that Harrison Smith is one of the most popular defensive backs in Minnesota Vikings history. The 33-year-old has spent a decade in the NFL—all of it in purple and gold. Over that time, Smith has been named to six Pro Bowls and topped 80 total tackles on seven occasions. From a productivity standpoint at least, Smith continues to play at a high level and amassed a career-best 114 total tackles in 2021.

Releasing Smith would be an unceremonious end to the Minnesota career of one of the best safeties in franchise history. But it also can't be ruled out.

As with many of the teams in this piece, the Vikings have significant work to do where the salary cap is concerned—the team is just over $16 million in the red. Releasing Smith (and designating him a post-June 1 cut) would get the team about two-thirds of the way there. Smith is signed all the way through 2025, but given his age, the odds he's ever going to sniff the end of that deal are remote.

If given the choice, the Vikings would no doubt prefer to clear cap space by restructuring the contracts of players like quarterback Kirk Cousins and edge-rusher Danielle Hunter. Both players carry a 2022 cap number north of $25 million.

But if it reaches the point where heads have to roll, the team is much more likely to part ways with a safety nearing the end of the line than an elite pass-rushing talent or its starting quarterback.

Even a quarterback who catches as much flak as Kirk Daniel Cousins.

2022 Cap Hit: $14.1 million

Potential Savings: $10.8 million

With the exception of maybe quarterback, there probably isn't a position on the offensive side of the ball with better job security than tackle. NFL teams are loath to part with even middling veterans at the position. And with the third-most cap space in the league ($56.3 million), the Los Angeles Chargers aren't in a position where they need to pinch pennies in 2022.

However, just because the Chargers have cap space doesn't mean they should set money on fire—and there are those who would argue that Bryan Bulaga's cap hit of just over $14 million this season is doing just that.

When the Chargers inked Bulaga to a three-year, $30 million contract in 2020, the 32-year-old was supposed to provide a steadying veteran presence on a shaky offensive line. Bulaga was handed a $10 million signing bonus and guaranteed salaries over the first two years of the deal.

The return that L.A. received on that investment has been less than impressive. Two years ago, Bulaga was average at best, allowing two sacks over 444 snaps, per Pro Football Focus, while missing six games with a back injury. Last year, Bulaga played in just a single game before landing on injured reserve.

Releasing Bulaga would leave the Chargers precariously short on depth at tackle and make the right-tackle spot arguably the biggest need the Bolts have in 2022.

But under the circumstances, it's a "gamble" the Chargers almost have to make.

2022 Cap Hit: $11.7 million

Potential Savings: $7.8 million (post-June 1 cut)

The New Orleans Saints have a lot of work to do relative to the salary cap. As things stand now, the team is a staggering $76 million over the cap for 2022.

There has been no indication that the Saints intend to move on from star wide receiver Michael Thomas, and while New Orleans may be closer to a rebuild than contention, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where the team would seriously consider severing ties with veteran edge-rusher Cameron Jordan. But there's another longtime Saints player, Pro Bowler and Super Bowl champion who could be nearing the end of the line with the team.

This is actually Malcolm Jenkins' second stint with the Saints; the 34-year-old safety was a member of the Saints team that won Super Bowl XLIV before spending six seasons (and winning another Super Bowl) with the Philadelphia Eagles. Along the way, Jenkins made three Pro Bowls and was named a second-team All-Pro once. As recently as 2020, Jenkins topped 90 total tackles and picked off three passes.

Given that resume and Jenkins' status as a captain last year, it would no doubt surprise some for the Saints to hand Jenkins his walking papers. But Jenkins showed his age last year, and while he remains stout against the run, he's not the player he once was in coverage, allowing well over 10 yards per completion last season.

The Saints can't afford a cap hit in excess of $11 million for a player who is becoming more one-dimensional with each passing season.

2022 Cap Hit: $12.9 million

Potential Savings: $10.5 million

For the most part, guards don't enjoy the sort of job security that their counterparts at the tackle spot do. This isn't to say guards don't have value—the NFL's top overall lineman in the eyes of many (Quenton Nelson of the Colts) is a guard. They just aren't as valuable as tackles.

But when a veteran guard just made the Pro Bowl this past season, it would seem at first glance that his job would be safe.

But that might not be the case with Rodger Saffold of the Tennessee Titans.

That Pro Bowl nod was actually the first of Saffold's career, and he told reporters from the event that he's thankful to have added another accomplishment to his 12-year resume:

"To finally get my opportunity, it feels good. I've been waiting a long time, and I'm excited to put another notch in my belt. I've been to the AFC championship, the NFC championship, the Super Bowl and now the Pro Bowl. The fact that I can say I've done all the things, it's a blessing. Now I want to win a championship, and hopefully I can do it with the Titans."

To be fair, Saffold had a solid season in 2021. Despite battling nagging injuries, the 33-year-old played in 15 games, surrendering a pair of sacks over 853 snaps, per PFF. It was an improvement over 2020, when Saffold gave up twice as many sacks on a similar snap count.

But Saffold's Pro Bowl nod was as much a lifetime achievement award as an indication of his level of play in 2021. He's a very good, veteran guard. But he's not a great one.

And with Saffold carrying a cap hit of almost $13 million in 2022 and Tennessee sitting upward of $8 million in the red, paying a good guard great money may be a luxury the Titans just can't afford.