Buying or Selling Vegas Title Odds of Every AP Top 10 Men's CBB Team

Filling out brackets will be the most inclusive part of predicting the 2022 men's NCAA tournament, but millions of sports bettors are gearing up to pick a champion.

As the countdown drops below 30 days until March Madness begins, we're starting with the Associated Press Top 10 and identifying which programs have favorable title odds.

Four weeks ago, B/R colleague Kerry Miller looked at the lines for this exercise. However, three programs—Houston, UCLA and Wisconsin—have since exited the Top 10, while Villanova, Providence and Kentucky have replaced them.

And those aren't the only changes.

For the seven other programs, perceptions may have shifted—right along with the latest DraftKings odds.

Odds: +3000

Villanova plummeted out of the Top 10 in December after lopsided losses to Baylor and Creighton. Since then, the Wildcats have stayed in the AP poll but only reached No. 10 in the latest release.

The Cats have a thin rotation. Former top recruit Bryan Antoine, if he can stay healthy, could provide a valuable boost. But a snail-like tempo—the 12th-slowest nationally, per KenPom.com—a low turnover rate and the country's No. 1 free-throw percentage help offset that shortcoming.

Besides, the most important topic is value.

Right now, Illinois (+3000) and Houston (+3500) are comparable teams. Illinois is waiting for Andre Curbelo to regain a significant role, and Houston lost Marcus Sasser to a season-ending toe injury. At similar odds, Villanova is much closer to full strength.

Health, of course, can change dramatically, but the Cats are worth considering.

Verdict: Buying

Odds: +1300

One month ago, Duke trailed only Gonzaga in championship odds. That certainly didn't feel comfortable.

The sixth-highest odds, though? That's manageable.

Duke ranks among the top 32 teams nationally in turnovers and fouls per game. Additionally, the Blue Devils sport the 17th-best perimeter defense, are 46th in three-point percentage and have a shot-blocking force in the paint with Mark Williams.

While not quantifiable, Duke's energy has seemed to waver throughout its ACC schedule. That's enough of a concern to remain hesitant on Mike Krzyzewski's final team.

Still, the Blue Devils' odds dipped slightly after a nine-game stretch wherein the program posted an 8-1 record and didn't show a glaring flaw. Again, it's all about value.

Verdict: Buying

Odds: +10000

Providence, by far, would be the unlikeliest champion of this group.

The Friars have vastly outperformed expectations with a 21-3 record, and pulling out tight victories all season is impressive.

But as Providence fans have constantly heard, practically every game is a close one. That's risky—and arguably unsustainable. Providence ranks 212th in two-point percentage and 141st beyond the arc; the offense may be a major weakness in March.

We're shying away from this year's greatest escape artist, but there's reason—and 10,000 of them, specifically—to disagree.

Verdict: Selling

Odds: +1500

Baylor has turned into a question mark.

Key forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is out for the season with a knee injury. Beyond his value as an experienced player and team leader, JTT was an important reserve who provided 8.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. His absence will alter the rotation.

From one perspective, you could jump on +1500 and hope for Baylor to settle in to its updated look. Conversely, you might be hesitant to trust a roster that's thin in the frontcourt.

The wait-and-see approach is reasonable. After all, Baylor will still be worth consideration at a smaller number.

Verdict: Holding

Odds: +1500

Do you know what to expect from Kansas? If you do, well, more power to you, friend.

For the last month, the Jayhawks have endured many uncomfortably close games. They've typically pulled out victories, but five of their last nine contests have featured no larger than a three-point margin. David McCormack's production has improved, yet Kansas' long-range efficiency has been lacking. And Remy Martin is hurt.

In short, the Jayhawks are tough to evaluate.

During that span, their championship odds have only drifted from +1400 to +1500. Given that we sold Kansas in January, the team's recent performance hasn't changed that opinion.

Verdict: Selling

Odds: +1000

I want to love you, Purdue.

The nation's leader in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, holds top-10 rankings in points and assists per game and three-point percentage. Purdue lacks a traditional point guard but still has three players averaging three-plus assists. Few offenses are as enjoyable to watch as the Boilermakers' group.

Defense, though, has remained a big concern—and recency bias isn't doing Purdue any favors. In the Boilers' last five games, they've surrendered a 41.9 three-point clip and 15.6 assists per night.

Purdue has a favorable slate remaining, so it's plausible these odds won't get more appealing. But the potential for a defensive letdown in March is a deterrent.

Verdict: Selling

Odds: +800

Whether you believe in Kentucky and whether you want to buy Kentucky is an important distinction to make.

After falling to Auburn on Jan. 22, the Wildcats ripped off a six-game winning streak that included road victories over Kansas, Alabama and South Carolina before Tennessee halted the run. John Calipari's squad is looking like a national contender with National Player of the Year front-runner Oscar Tshiebwe leading the way.

In the process, UK's title odds have soared in the wrong direction for late-adopting bettors. While locked up with Arizona at +800, only Gonzaga (+400) is higher.

Peak value on Kentucky is long gone. At this point, it's more about if you think the upcoming stretch against Alabama, LSU and Arkansas will compound the Tennessee loss and result in a slight, and likely temporary, drop for the Cats.

Verdict: Softly Buying

Odds: +800

Similar to Kentucky's, this verdict is a reflection of timing—and Arizona is preparing for what should be a friendly month.

Though the Wildcats have marquee games opposite Oregon and USC coming soon, the rest of the schedule is favorable. Their other five opponents—Oregon State, Utah, Colorado, Stanford and Cal—are in the bottom half of the Pac-12.

Arizona leads the nation in two-point defense and both assists and rebounds per game. Plus, led by shot-blocking cornerstone Christian Koloko, the Cats are third in blocks per game.

If you're planning to buy, Arizona's odds probably won't get any better.

Verdict: Buying

Odds: +1000

Especially when you consider Purdue holds identical odds, this conversation is straightforward.

While the Boilermakers boast KenPom's top offense, they're 116th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Auburn, on the other hand, is 16th on offense and eighth on defense. Given that KenPom's defensive rankings have served as a strong indicator for March Madness champions, Auburn is the obvious choice at this number.

Yes, the Tigers' dreadful three-point performance—ranked 306th nationally—is jarring. Six players hoist multiple triples per game, yet only Jabari Smith connects at even 33 percent. Not great.

Even if the offense struggles, though, its up-tempo pace and ferocious defense can mitigate some shooting woes. Go with Auburn over Purdue.

Verdict: Buying

Odds: +400

All season, Gonzaga has stood as the championship favorite. That's neither surprising nor unjustified.

In the last month, however, the Bulldogs' odds have shortened from +600 to +400. This is the worst moment to bet on Gonzaga so far but—like it is with Arizona—also a moment when the odds likely aren't bound to improve for bettors.

Barring losses at San Francisco (Feb. 24) and St. Mary's (Feb. 26), Gonzaga should cruise to a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.

Elite team. Definite contender. Running thin on value.

Verdict: Selling

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.