Viewing Guide for Yet Another Massive Weekend in Men's College Basketball

Though men's college basketball games played in early November technically carry the same weight as ones played in mid-February, it sure feels like each game is way more important now that we have a clearer picture of what's at stake.

And, friends, there is a lot at stake this weekend.

Before we even jump into the smorgasbord of marquee matchups taking place on either Saturday or Sunday, your weekend viewing guide begins with a reminder that we will find out the tournament selection committee's current top-16 seeds this Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

Bracketologists are most interested in seeing where the committee stands on Wisconsin and Providence (great resume; subpar predictive metrics) as well as Houston (subpar resume; great predictive metrics). But it doesn't take an obsession with NET data, Quadrant records and bracketing principles to be enthralled by the proceedings. If nothing else, the order of the four No. 1 seeds will be a talking point for...well, at least a few hours until one of them loses a game.

But don't get too distracted by the top-16 reveal, because there are head-to-head battles between AP Top 25 teams tipping off at noon, 12:30 p.m. and 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, and then plenty of intrigue to carry you through an entire weekend on the couch.

With 169 games scheduled between Saturday and Sunday, though, it's almost too much to keep up with. So we've put together this handy-dandy schedule of what to watch, when, where and why.

Headliner: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 20 Texas (12:30 p.m. ET on ABC)

Round No. 1 in Lubbock on Feb. 1 was more or less a runaway. Texas Tech students camped out for days for the opportunity to "welcome" Chris Beard back to his old stomping grounds with a deafening ovation of jeers, and the Red Raiders fed off of that energy. They jumped out to an early 19-7 lead and never looked back.

Will Texas Tech finish off the season sweep to solidify its case for a No. 2 seed (or better) in the NCAA tournament, or will the Longhorns fare better in the Erwin Center to pick up their third big home win in the span of three weeks?

It could go either way, but one thing's for certain: There won't be many games on Saturday more physical than this one.

Undercard: No. 12 Illinois at No. 19 Michigan State (Noon ET on ESPN)

Illinois had neither Kofi Cockburn nor Andre Curbelo available when these teams met in Champaign in late January, yet the Illini were able to eke out a 56-55 victory over the Spartans.

With that preseason All-Big Ten duo back on the court for the rematch, does Illinois complete the sweep and move one step closer to a B1G regular-season title? And does Cockburn have the type of dominant performance to possibly take over first place in the B1G/National Player of the Year races? Or will the Spartans actually hit some shots this time around and further congest things atop the conference standings?

Either way, someone is getting another big Quadrant 1 victory.

Other Games of Note

Xavier at No. 24 Connecticut (Noon ET on FOX): Both of these teams are just about locks for the dance at this point, but this one has seeding implications for both the Big East and NCAA tournaments. Xavier just won a home game against UConn last Friday, but a win in Storrs would be the Musketeers' best of the season, by far.

No. 25 Alabama at No. 4 Kentucky (1 p.m. ET on CBS): Alabama already has six wins over sure-fire NCAA tournament teams, but the Crimson Tide has done most of its damage in Tuscaloosa. A road win over Kentucky would be huge, and it would also deliver a huge blow to the Wildcats' case for a No. 1 seed.

Notre Dame at Wake Forest (1 p.m. ET on ACCN): It's going to take a backseat to the three AP Top 25 vs. AP Top 25 battles in the early window, but this is a gigantic bubble game in the ACC. Feels like a "winner becomes a projected No. 9 seed; loser slips into a play-in game" type of matchup, and neither team has anything else worth mentioning on its schedule before the ACC tournament.

TCU at No. 7 Baylor (Noon ET on ESPN2): Could be a fun battle between two of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Baylor should win comfortably at home, but this is a massive opportunity for TCU to potentially guarantee itself a spot in the dance.

Headliner: No. 2 Auburn at Florida (2 p.m. ET on ESPN) 

Florida has been hovering right around the bubble cut line for what has felt like the entire season. Such is life when you have one great win (Ohio State on a neutral court) and one terrible loss (vs. Texas Southern). But a win over a projected No. 1 seed would push the Gators somewhat comfortably into the field.

Auburn hasn't been anywhere near as unbeatable on the road as it is at home. The Tigers have played eight true road games, resulting in a loss to Arkansas, uncomfortably close wins over Georgia, Missouri and South Florida and just one victory by double digits (81-66 at South Carolina).

Normally, you would think a team with four first-place votes in the AP poll would blow out a team with no votes whatsoever, even on the road. Considering the Gators are desperately trying to play their way into the tournament, though, a major upset might be in the cards. Walker Kessler vs. Colin Castleton will be a fascinating duel between excellent shot blockers.

Undercard: Iowa at No. 18 Ohio State (2:30 p.m. ET on FOX)

Is Iowa finally going to get a Quadrant 1 win?

The Hawkeyes have won a dozen games this season by a margin of at least 17 points, so a lot of the metrics paint this team as a strong candidate for the Sweet 16. But we're still waiting on them to actually prove they can beat a quality opponent.

If Iowa does win at Ohio State, not only would it be the Hawkeyes' first Q1 win of the season, but it would also be the Buckeyes' first home loss. In addition to the team intrigue, this should be a fantastic individual matchup between Iowa's Keegan Murray and Ohio State's E.J. Liddell.

Other Games of Note

Kansas State at Oklahoma State (2 p.m. ET on ESPNU): Seemingly out of nowhere, Kansas State—which opened the season with an 8-7 record and no great wins—has won six of 10 and appears to be just one more win away from entering the projected field. But postseason-ineligible Oklahoma State battles hard in Stillwater, already boasting home wins over Texas, Oklahoma, TCU and West Virginia.

Oklahoma at Iowa State (2 p.m. ET on ESPN+): While Kansas State is marching toward the field, these two Big 12 teams have been trending in the wrong direction for more than a month. Much like the previously mentioned Notre Dame-Wake Forest game, the winner will pick up a little bit of breathing room, while the loser figures to be, at best, just barely clinging to a spot in the field with four games left in the regular season.

Saint Louis at Davidson (3:30 p.m. ET on CBSSN): Saint Louis' dream of an at-large bid probably went up in smoke with recent back-to-back losses to St. Bonaventure, but a Quadrant 1 win at Davidson could bring the Billikens back from the dead. However, a Quadrant 2 home loss would potentially knock Davidson out of the field.

LSU at South Carolina (3:30 p.m. ET on SECN): LSU remains in preservation mode. The Tigers haven't beaten a projected tournament team since early January, but they've won three straight against Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Georgia and need to push that streak to four in Columbia.

Headliner: No. 16 Tennessee at No. 23 Arkansas (4 p.m. ET on ESPN) 

It's a big opportunity for Arkansas to prove its win over Auburn was no fluke, but perhaps an even more important opportunity for Tennessee to prove it can play away from home.

The Volunteers have been outstanding at home, but they are 5-6 in road/neutral games this season. Four of the wins were against Colorado, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Mississippi State—not bad teams, but not projected tournament teams, either. The other victory was a neutral-site game against North Carolina, which is a bubble team with its own well-documented issues in non-home games.

But after losses to Villanova, Texas Tech, Alabama, LSU, Kentucky and Texas, a road win over Arkansas could be a huge step in the right direction for a Tennessee team that has the metrics of a No. 2 seed and the eye test of a No. 6 seed.

If Tennessee does win, it leaves Arkansas likely in need of at least one more win against a tough closing stretch. Because if the Hogs proceed to lose road games against Florida and Tennessee and home games against Kentucky and LSU to finish at 20-11 with just two good wins (Auburn and LSU) and two bad losses (Hofstra and Vanderbilt), that's a bubble resume.

Undercard: Virginia at Miami (FL) (5 p.m. ET on ACCN)

When Miami lost at Virginia on Feb. 5, it dropped the Hurricanes back to the bubble and gave the Cavaliers enough of a boost for their subsequent road win over Duke to make things mighty interesting. UVA then blew a key opportunity at Virginia Tech on Monday, two days after Miami picked up a big road win over Wake Forest. So, Miami is back somewhat comfortably in the projected field while Virginia is hunting (at least) one more Q1 win to make things interesting again.

In that previous meeting, Virginia shot 53.3 percent from beyond the arc while Miami shot 23.5 percent. The perimeter game is usually one of Miami's strengths and is typically Virginia's biggest weakness, so expect some serious regression to the mean in that department.

Other Games of Note

North Carolina at Virginia Tech (4 p.m. ET on ESPN2): Virginia Tech has nothing even close to a Quadrant 1 win on its resume, but the Hokies have won six straight and are top-40 in all the predictive metrics. If they win this game and next Saturday's contest at Miami, they'll become a much more serious at-large candidate. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are also looking for their first Quadrant 1 win of the season, and a victory in Blacksburg would at least look very good on paper.

North Texas at UAB (4 p.m. ET): It hasn't gotten anywhere near as much attention as the quests for a four-bid WCC and MWC, but an at-large team out of Conference USA is at least within the realm of possibility. North Texas is the better candidate, but if either of these teams wins every game between now and the C-USA championship, the team that doesn't get the auto bid is going to be firmly in the conversation.

Air Force at Wyoming (4 p.m. ET); No. 21 Murray State at UT Martin (4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+); SIU-Edwardsville at Belmont (5 p.m. ET on ESPN+); Georgetown at No. 10 Villanova (5 p.m. ET on FOX): A quartet of games in which the team projected to make the NCAA tournament is going to be favored by around 20 points against some of the worst teams in their respective conferences. But you never know, right? Keep an eye on the scoreboard on the off chance of some chaos.

Headliner: Florida State at No. 7 Duke (6 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Thanks to a recent six-game losing streak, Florida State has taken itself out of the running for an at-large bid. If the 'Noles win their remaining five regular season games, maybe that makes things interesting. However, let's hold off on that conversation until we see if they can win this game as a massive underdog.

Rather, Duke is the reason this is an intriguing game, as the Blue Devils have had an unusual amount of trouble protecting Cameron Indoor this season. They've already lost at home against both Miami and Virginia and only beat Clemson and Wake Forest by two points each. Strange stuff from what often feels like the only good team in the ACC this season.

If they can take care of business the rest of the way, though, the Blue Devils still have a reasonable shot at a No. 1 seed. And that starts with avenging the previous overtime loss to Florida State.

Undercard: No. 8 Kansas at West Virginia (8 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Here we have another matchup between a possible No. 1 seed and an opponent that has played itself out of the conversation over the past month or so.

As of Wednesday morning, Kansas was leading the nation with 14 wins against the top two Quadrants and is ranked in the top 10 of all six metrics that appear on the team sheets the selection committee uses. Meanwhile, West Virginia has lost nine of its past 10 games, and by a combined 106 points, no less.

The Jayhawks should win in blowout fashion, but if they do, that would be a first. KU is 3-6 at WVU since the Mountaineers joined the Big 12, and none of its three wins came by double figures. Even when West Virginia went 15-21 in 2018-19, it still won its home game against Kansas.

Other Games of Note

Utah State at Boise State (6 p.m. ET on CBSSN): While not quite a must-win game for Boise State, the Broncos would leave themselves little to no margin for error the rest of the way if they lose this one. And though Utah State has 12 losses, it is a formidable foe that was ranked just outside the KenPom top 30 prior to a pair of recent blowout losses.

Drake at Loyola-Chicago (6 p.m. ET on ESPN2): Loyola-Chicago might be able to survive one more loss before the MVC tournament and still be considered worthy of an at-large bid, but a Quadrant 3 home loss to Drake could be the last straw.

Texas A&M at Vanderbilt (6 p.m. ET on SECN): Both of these teams are hovering around 75th in the NET with an overall winning record, a couple of good-not-great wins and nary a terrible loss. Neither is currently a legitimate candidate for a bid, but the winner will at least remain on the fringe of the radar.

Colorado State at UNLV (8 p.m. ET on CBSSN): Were it not for a 14-point home loss to UNLV back in late January, Colorado State would probably be a ranked team in the mix for a No. 5 seed. The Rams could just about lock up their spot in the field by avenging that loss. But if Bryce Hamilton goes off for another 45-point performance in a Rebels victory, Colorado State will find itself with some work to do against a difficult closing stretch (vs. Wyoming, at Utah State, vs. Boise State).

DePaul at Seton Hall (8 p.m. ET): DePaul is 12-13, but it is no pushover, as Seton Hall found out in a 96-92 road loss last month. The Pirates are currently teetering between the projected No. 8 and No. 9 seed lines with this representing the first of three potentially horrendous losses left on their slate. (They also still host Butler and Georgetown.) Win all three of those games, though, and they'll almost certainly be dancing.

Headliner: Oregon at No. 3 Arizona (10 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Got to love a good late night "bubble team vs. No. 1 seed" showdown.

If things go according to plan and Arizona wins comfortably, ho hum. Oregon remains on the wrong side of the cut line heading into next week's home games against UCLA and USC, and Arizona stays firmly in the hunt for the No. 1 overall seed.

But if the Ducks pull off the road upset, hello bracketology chaos. Combined with the previous road wins over the Bruins and Trojans, that could vault Oregon right back into the field, in spite of the terrible recent losses to Cal and Arizona State. And depending on how the likes of Auburn, Kentucky, Kansas and Baylor fare earlier in the day, a home loss to Oregon (especially if it's a convincing one) could bump Arizona down to a No. 2 seed.

Undercard: BYU at Saint Mary's (10 p.m. ET)

It's a bubble bonanza in Moraga.

BYU narrowly won its games against Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine last week to remain on the correct side of the projected cut line, and a road win over Saint Mary's would be massive. If the Cougars don't win, they absolutely must win next week's home games against LMU and Pepperdine and avoid falling flat on their face in the WCC tournament.

Meanwhile, the Gaels appear to be in great shape for now, but if they lose this one and the season finale against Gonzaga (with a win over San Diego in between), they enter the WCC tournament at 22-8 with a long history of getting snubbed from the NCAA tournament. (26-6 in 2009 wasn't enough for a bid. Neither was 27-5 in 2016, nor 28-5 in 2018.) Finishing off the season sweep of San Francisco on Thursday night probably locked them into a bid, though.

Other Games of Note

Santa Clara at No. 1 Gonzaga (9 p.m. ET): Gonzaga has won 15 consecutive games by at least 14 points each, and it won by 32 at Santa Clara in mid-January. But the Broncos have already clipped both BYU and Saint Mary's and nearly won at San Francisco. Maybe things will be interesting early on if Gonzaga is already looking ahead to its season-ending road trip to San Francisco and Saint Mary's? (Yeah, probably not.)

San Diego State at Fresno State (10 p.m. ET on CBSSN): SDSU smoked Utah State on Tuesday to remain in the projected field, but the Aztecs' remaining schedule is an MWC gauntlet. Fresno State isn't likely to dance, but this road game would be San Diego State's third-most impressive win of the season.

Washington at No. 13 UCLA (10 p.m. ET on FS1): February has not been kind to the Bruins, and they have a long way yet to go in the calendar's shortest month. This is the second game of a six-game stretch that spans just 11 days. But at least this one should be an easy win.

Colorado at Stanford (10 p.m. ET on ESPNU): Similar to the Texas A&M-Vanderbilt game, Colorado-Stanford feels like a bubble elimination game in which even the winner still faces an uphill climb to the field. Each team does still have a game remaining against Arizona, though, so stay tuned.

Headliner: Michigan at No. 15 Wisconsin (1 p.m. ET on CBS)

No more football? No problem. This Sunday slate should be enough to keep you entertained for nine straight hours, starting with what might be the biggest game of the entire weekend.

We'll find out at 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday where Wisconsin is currently sitting in the selection committee's overall seed list, but I like the Badgers' chances of earning the fourth No. 2 seed. The predictive metrics don't much care for the Badgers, but Tuesday's win at Indiana pushed them to 9-3 against Quadrant 1, tied with Baylor for the best mark in the country. With a remaining schedule of at Minnesota, at Rutgers, vs. Purdue and vs. Nebraska, there's a non-zero chance they could win out and get into the mix for a No. 1 seed.

But that means winning a home game against a Wolverines team that appears to be waking up after hibernating through the first two-plus months of the season. Recent wins over Purdue and Iowa have already pushed Michigan back into the projected field, and a road win over Wisconsin would be another huge boost. Can they stifle Johnny Davis, though?

Undercard: Marquette at Creighton (3 p.m. ET on FS1)

There's very little (if any) separation between Michigan and Creighton on the bubble, and the Bluejays also have a big opportunity to enhance their resume against a team from Wisconsin. Marquette has lost three of its past five games, but the Golden Eagles still profile as a solid No. 6 seed and will be a borderline Quadrant 1 opportunity for Creighton.

The Bluejays beat Marquette in double overtime back on New Year's Day, and completing the season sweep would be massive considering they are currently just 4-7 against the top two Quadrants.

Other Games of Note

No. 14 Houston at Wichita State (1 p.m. ET on ESPN): After last week's losses to SMU and Memphis, can the Cougars stop the bleeding before it really impacts their projected seed? That zero in the Quadrant 1 wins column becomes even more of an eyesore with each passing day.

No. 8 Providence at Butler (1 p.m. ET on FS1): Butler recently knocked off both Marquette and Creighton at home and nearly won road games against each of Providence, Xavier and Creighton. And we all know Providence is no stranger to playing nail-biters.

Memphis at SMU (3 p.m. ET on ESPN): It's the bubble battle of the weekend. Houston helped put both Memphis and SMU firmly in the conversation with quality wins last week, and now the Tigers and Mustangs square off to determine who enters next week in the projected field. A win would push SMU to 20-5 overall, while it would be a fifth Quadrant 1 victory for Memphis' resume.

Rutgers at No. 5 Purdue (5:30 p.m. ET on FS1): Can Rutgers pull off yet another massive upset and climb into the projected field, or will Purdue exact its revenge upon Rutgers for that Ron Harper Jr. half-court shot in December and further its case for a No. 1 seed?

Washington State at No. 17 USC (7:30 p.m. ET on FS1): The Trojans put up a great fight at Arizona two Saturdays ago and knocked off UCLA last Saturday. A convincing win over "great metrics, no great wins" Washington State would provide another nice resume boost.