NFL Teams Most Likely to Go from Worst to First in 2022

Winning is hard in the NFL, and learning to win can be even trickier. There's a reason why franchises like the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers rarely dip below .500, while teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns can only covet sustained success.

Talent is a large part of the equation, but coaching and culture play huge roles.

Just because teams are bad right now, though, doesn't mean that they can't turn things around quickly. The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, won just six games over 2019 and 2020 and finished last in the AFC North in both years. They're division champions this season, though, because of players like Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. And because they also found the confidence to succeed.

"I know that's why he's here. He's always playing for championships," Bengals head coach Zac Taylor told reporters of Burrow.

If the Bengals can go from worst to first in a brutal division like the AFC North, every last-place team should have similar aspirations in 2022. But can any of the basement-dwellers actually pull it off?

Here, we'll examine five last-place teams who could emerge as division champions next season, ranking them based on factors such as talent level, cap space, coaching and divisional competition.

We're not saying that it's going to happen for each of these teams, but we're saying there's a chance.

You can laugh at the notion of the New York Jets winning the AFC East if you want, and we're certainly not going to laugh at you for doing so. The Jets rank dead last in total and scoring defense, and rookie quarterback Zach Wilson hasn't been good (69.9 rating).

However, Wilson could make the sort of second-year leap we've recently seen from guys like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. His physical potential, at least, is there.

"Overall, Wilson is a legit franchise QB prospect who will add excitement and explosive plays to whatever offense he joins but might take some time to adjust to what he can—and can't—get away with at the NFL level," Nate Tice of the Bleacher Report Scouting Department wrote of Wilson last April.

New York is also set to have a pair of top-10 draft selections and $51.2 million in cap space this spring.

The Jets could load up their defense the way that Cincinnati did this offseason. They should also add a pair of elite prospects to an offensive group of intriguing young players that includes Wilson, running back Michael Carter, wideout Elijah Moore and left tackle Mekhi Becton, who missed almost the entire season with a knee injury.

For as bad as New York has been in 2021, the players have shown resolve and have played hard for rookie head coach Robert Saleh. They've beaten quality opponents like the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans. They took the defending-champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the brink in Week 17.

With an influx of talent, the Jets could be formidable in 2022. Whether they can challenge the New England Patriots in the AFC East will hinge largely on Wilson's development, but New York has the draft and cap capital needed for a dramatic improvement.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will be the biggest obstacle in the way of the Denver Broncos' quest for a worst-to-first run in the AFC West. The second-largest will be the team's lack of a franchise quarterback.

Neither Teddy Bridgewater nor Drew Lock has played like the answer this season, though Denver's quarterbacks do have a respectable 92.5 cumulative passer rating.

If the Broncos can find themselves an upper-tier quarterback—through trade, free agency or the draft—the rest of the division will be on notice. The team is already loaded with skill players like Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant and Javonte Williams.

Denver's defense also ranks seventh against the pass, ninth overall and third in points allowed. While head coach Vic Fangio hasn't delivered the desired results over his first three seasons, he may get one more opportunity to flip the script as Taylor did in Cincinnati.

The Broncos narrowly lost to the Bengals and the Las Vegas Raiders despite losing Bridgewater during the Cincinnati game. Winning those games might have launched Denver into the postseason this year.

"A four-point game, a five-point game. To me, that shows that we're close," Fangio said, per Kyle Newman of the Denver Post. "I believe in this team, and we're on the cusp of getting to the point where we want to be."

The Broncos are slated to have $48.5 million in cap space, ninth-most in the NFL. They would have the 11th pick in the draft if the season ended today. This is a seven-win team that could be much, much better with a few key offseason additions—notably a quarterback.

This offseason, expect Denver to be involved in any trade buzz surrounding the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson—provided there are no developments that indicate Watson's future availability could be in jeopardy while he faces 22 civil lawsuits accusing him of sexual assault or misconduct and 10 related legal investigations.

If it can land one of those three, a worst-to-first rise might even be expected.

Like the Broncos, the Carolina Panthers need to settle on a franchise quarterback. The offseason trade for Sam Darnold has been a disaster. He has a passer rating of just 70.2 and a 4-6 record as a starter. The Panthers may also look to move on from head coach Matt Rhule this offseason.

According to Joseph Person of The Athletic, franchise owner David Tepper is "unhappy and embarrassed" by the seven-year contract he gave Rhule just two offseasons ago.

However, there are pieces in place. Carolina has offensive weapons like DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey, who has rarely been at 100 percent this season and has only played seven games. It also has a defense that is ranked second against the pass and second in yards allowed.

Where Carolina has an edge over a team like Denver is in its division. The Buccaneers are the defending champions in the NFC South but could collapse at any time. Tom Brady is a 44-year-old quarterback, and the team could lose a plethora of pieces—including Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and Carlton Davis—in free agency.

The New Orleans Saints might sneak into the playoffs this year, but they've been up-and-down. The Atlanta Falcons are closer to a full-on rebuild than a division title.

The NFC South could be wide-open in 2022, and that provides plenty of hope for the Panthers. It all hinges on finding a reliable quarterback, of course. Armed with the No. 6 pick in the draft and $28.6 million in cap space, however, the Panthers have the capital needed to make a move.

The Seattle Seahawks have won the NFC West four times in the past eight years and have only missed the postseason once in that span. They're missing the playoffs again this year after a season marred by bad defense (30th overall) and Russell Wilson's finger surgery.

Seattle, though, has the cap space ($53.1 million) needed to quickly overhaul the roster. And as long as Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll are running the show, the team is going to remain relevant in the division.

This, of course, is the big question mark surrounding Seattle. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, many around the league believe that either Carroll or Wilson will be out. CBS Sports' Jay Glazer also believes that Wilson could try to force a trade this offseason.

Carroll, though, has dismissed the idea of a split.

"The kind of conversations that we have behind the scenes are not in line with the rumors," Carroll told reporters.

If Carroll and Wilson do both return, it will impossible to count them out. However, Seattle will have to be willing to significantly rebuild its roster. According to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, Seahawks chair Jody Allen is "not happy" with how things have unfolded and doesn't view the problems as a "one-year thing."

Going from worst to first won't be easy, as the Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers are all playoff-caliber teams.

However, if general manager John Schneider can convince Wilson to stay, give him a capable offensive line and obtain even an above-average defense in free agency, Seattle could be right back where it was a year ago—at the top of the division.

The Cleveland Browns are once again laughingstocks of the NFL—not because they're one of the worst teams but because they came into 2021 with Super Bowl aspirations and fell on their faces.

Of course, it's hard to count everything that went wrong this season. Injuries have played a role, as key contributors like Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry and Jack Conklin all missed significant time. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been hampered by a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder since Week 2.

Mayfield went from completing nearly 82 percent of his passes in the first two weeks to being an inaccurate and unreliable mess after the injury, and he'll now undergo surgery.

"It's definitely something that's hindered him," offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said, per ESPN's Jake Trotter. "You can just see in his mechanics down that left side [of his body] get stuck in there at times, and it's a struggle for him."

Then, there was the coronavirus-impacted game that nearly resulted in a Cleveland forfeit, and the Odell Beckham Jr. drama that led to his release.

Despite everything, Cleveland still had a shot at the AFC North title heading into Week 17, though the Bengals ended it with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. If Mayfield can return to being the quarterback he was late last season and before the injury, the Browns should be right back in it next year.

That's a big "if," to be sure. Cleveland also needs to see more creative play-calling from head coach Kevin Stefanski and it desperately needs a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Armed with a top-15 draft selection and $36.5 million in cap space, though, Cleveland can patch holes and bring back players like Jadeveon Clowney and Anthony Walker Jr., who will be unrestricted free agents.

The Bengals went from worst to first in the AFC North this year. The Browns, who rolled Cincinnati 41-16 in Week 9, can do the same in 2022.

*Cap information via Spotrac. Draft order via Tankathon.