Pac-12 Championship 2021: Oregon vs. Utah Breakdown, Predictions
Just under two weeks after the Utah Utes dashed the Oregon Ducks' playoff hopes, the programs will meet again Friday with the Pac-12 championship on the line.
The Utes won the South Division with just one loss in conference play. Kyle Whittingham's team dropped two games early in non-conference play but rallied to go 8-1 in the Pac-12. Oregon State is the only team in the conference to have beaten them.
Oregon had playoff aspirations after an early-season win over Ohio State. Those hopes took a hit when they picked up their first conference loss to Stanford in overtime. And the Utes finished them off with a 38-7 mauling of the Ducks in Week 12.
Now Oregon gets a shot at revenge, with the winner locking up an appearance in the Rose Bowl. Here's what to watch for in the Pac-12 title game.
When Utah Has the Ball
Quite simply, the Ducks are going to have to do a much better job up front. Utah was committed to running the football against Oregon in Week 12. They racked up 50 rushing attempts as a team and still averaged a little more than four yards per carry.
It was one of its more inefficient outings on the ground. The Utes lead the nation in yards per carry at 5.7, led by running backs Tavion Thomas and T.J. Pledger. The real difference-maker on the offense, though, has been quarterback Cameron Rising. Since he took over the starting job in Week 4, the Utes are 6-1 and he's been among the best quarterbacks in the conference.
According to CFB Film Room, he is the best in the conference in adjusted net yards per attempt and third in completion percentage on throws longer than 10 yards. His ability to push the ball down the field and make plays with his feet has been instrumental in elevating Utah's offense.
The Ducks kept him relatively in check last time the teams met. He only completed 10 of his 18 passes for 178 yards and no touchdowns. He's capable of more if Oregon does a better job of shutting down the run this time.
When Oregon Has the Ball
They didn't show it in the first meeting, but the Ducks have a dynamic rushing attack of their own. The most shocking part of the first game may be just how much a non-factor Oregon's running game was.
Of course, a lot of that had to do with game script. The Ducks are 36th in rushing rate on the season but only ran the ball 13 times with running backs Byron Cardwell and Travis Dye. Overall, the rushing attack combined for 63 yards on 23 attempts.
That's a far cry from the 5.5 yards per carry they are averaging on the season. They got back on track against the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday, racking up 231 yards on the ground, including 99 from Dye.
The make-or-break factor is going to be how well Anthony Brown plays at quarterback. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes in his first go-round with the Utes and chipped in just eight yards on the ground.
He's usually a much bigger threat, both through the air and with his feet, so he will have to step up and make more plays this time if his team's fortunes are going to be different this time around.
Prediction
Once again, these two teams look even on paper. ESPN's SP+ ratings have the Utes ranked 16th in the country, and Oregon isn't too far behind in 19th. Obviously, that's not the way the first one played out on the field, but if these teams played 10 times, it is hard to say there would be more blowouts like the one Utah had at home.
By those ratings, the offenses are nearly identical. Utah is ranked 19th while Oregon is 18th. The difference is defense, where the South champion is ranked 17th and its North counterpart is 49th.
Utah is 0-2 in the Pac-12 Championship Game since joining the conference in 2011. The Ducks have won this game in each of the past two seasons.
This feels like the time Utah's fortunes are reversed. It won't be as easy as it was the last time they met Oregon, but the Utes should hold on to win again.
Prediction: Utah 23, Oregon 16