B/R Experts Answer Biggest College Football Questions for Week 12

At this point in the season, most of the national focus is on the race for the College Football Playoff. And while No. 1 Georgia will have no problem with Charleston Southern, there's plenty of opportunity for chaos with No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Oregon and No. 4 Ohio State all facing ranked opponents, plus No. 5 Cincinnati taking on a capable foe in SMU.

But if you're only paying attention to the top of the rankings, you're missing out on some great theater, such as the quest for the spots in the Big 12 championship, several battles for bowl eligibility, Texas trying to snap one of the worst losing skids in program history or the heroics of punting aficionado Matt Araiza.

What should we expect to unfold heading into the penultimate week of the 2021 regular season?

Bleacher Report's college football experts—David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Morgan Moriarty and Brad Shepard—have once again joined forces to offer up predictions on the weekend ahead.

David Kenyon

It doesn't take a football savant to know the difference between a touchdown and field goal is always important. But in this particular matchup, the red-zone battle is even more pronounced.

Prior to last weekend, Ohio State had a rough two-week stretch. Only two of the Buckeyes' nine trips inside the 20-yard line resulted in a touchdown against Penn State and Nebraska, and they managed a pair of uncomfortable wins. In last week's 59-31 win over Purdue, though, Ohio State scored four touchdowns in five red-zone trips (excluding the kneel-downs to burn the clock on the game-ending drive).

Meanwhile, Michigan State ranks eighth nationally with a 42.9 red-zone touchdown rate allowed. That success was instrumental in the comeback win over Michigan—which managed two touchdowns in six red-zone trips—and must appear Saturday for the Spartans to have a chance.

Ohio State will put up plenty of yards. I'm taking the Buckeyes to win, too. But MSU knows its path to an upset.

Kerry Miller

I've got Ohio State, and I've got it not even being a good game.

Not to toot my own horn, but I've had a pretty good grip on Michigan State this season, especially as of late. I picked the Spartans to beat Michigan by a field goal (they won by four), I picked them to lose to Purdue by a field goal (they lost by two scores) and I had them beating Maryland by 15 this past week (they won by 19). Just about the only one I've missed was back in early October when I thought they might lose to Western Kentucky. They did give up nearly 500 passing yards, but I underestimated how bad the Hilltoppers defense would be.

And I don't see how a team that has this much trouble defending the pass will slow down Ohio State. Over its last eight games, Sparty has allowed an average of 359.3 passing yards, and it has gotten particularly bad over the past three games.

Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud and the receiving law firm of Wilson, Olave and Smith-Njigba has been basically unstoppable. The Buckeyes have had some issues with their red-zone offense this season, but they're still leading the nation in scoring at 46.3 points per game, and they will at least flip the field on most of the possessions on which they don't score. And their run defense has come a long, long way since the first two games against Minnesota and Oregon, so I don't see Kenneth Walker III having a repeat of that five-touchdown game against the Wolverines.

Buckeyes win 45-24.

Adam Kramer

Yes, and I don't believe it will be all that shocking.

While the No. 3 team in the country losing is a big story anytime it takes place, a loss here won't emerge out of thin air. And the fact that Utah is favored, per DraftKings Sportsbook, speaks to the possibilities here. (Also, don't let anyone call Utah beating Oregon an "upset." In rankings, sure. But not with the point spread, which is what matters.)

The biggest factor in my eyes is the venue. Utah historically plays wonderful football at home, and this year has been no different. All three of the Utes' losses have come on the road this season.

It's also reasonable to question what we'll get from Oregon. Since the loss to Stanford, which has not aged well, the Ducks have not been the same over the past two months.

Injuries have played a huge role in that. Regardless, Washington and Washington State made their games against the Ducks weird for a while.

Utah will do the same, only it'll do one better with a win.

Kerry Miller

Michigan State-Ohio State is getting all the fanfare since it's a battle between teams ranked in the Top 7, but this is actually the game of the week.

And I think it's going to produce one of the biggest "upsets" of the season.

One big variable in this battle between top-tiered rushing attacks is the health of Utes running back Tavion Thomas. You may remember him from the four touchdowns he had in the first half against Stanford two weeks ago, but he missed last week's game against Arizona.

However, it sounds like he would have played if the Utes weren't facing a one-win team. And even if he's limited, they do still have a pair of solid options in Micah Bernard and T.J. Pledger, not to mention mobile quarterback Cam Rising.

I also don't trust Anthony Brown in passing situations. He has been mostly fine for the Ducks and is a major rushing threat for whom Utah must account. However, he isn't a threat to beat you deep. He has only two completions of 40 or more yards this season, and the Utes have done a great job of containing mobile quarterbacks thus far in Pac-12 play.

Utah wins 27-24.

David Kenyon

This isn't a "nine times out of 10, they win" situation for Cincinnati or UTSA. Their upcoming opponents—SMU and UAB, respectively—are fully capable of ending an unbeaten season, even without a perfect game.

Both unblemished programs will have the advantage of playing at home. Cincinnati hasn't lost a game at Nippert Stadium since November 2017, and UTSA has dropped only one home contest during the last two seasons. While this isn't a foolproof edge, the trend is indisputable.

The key for Cincinnati is limiting SMU's rushing attack. Although the Mustangs primarily lean on Tanner Mordecai and the passing game, they are 7-0 when running for at least four yards per carry and 1-2 (with a lackluster seven-point win over Navy) when falling below that mark. The offense becomes vulnerable when it's one-dimensional, and Cincinnati has one of the nation's strongest secondaries anyway.

And for UTSA, keep forcing turnovers. The offense is good, not overwhelming, so any boost the defense provides is a valuable one. Since UAB is comfortable playing a slow-tempo game—the Blazers run the sixth-fewest plays per game—the number of possessions will be limited. If the Roadrunners steal 10-plus points and don't gift any to UAB, they should improve to 11-0.

Kerry Miller

I certainly hope so. Cincinnati as the ultimate X-factor in the CFP mix and UTSA mattering for the first time ever has been a lot of fun.

And I do like them both to win at home, albeit against stiff competition.

SMU has the best passing attack that Cincinnati has faced thus far this season, and it's not even close. Mordecai and that four-headed receiving corps will put Cincinnati's excellent secondary to the test. But while the Mustangs figure to put up more than the 16.2 points per game the Bearcats usually allow, Cincinnati should be able to score almost at will against an SMU defense that hasn't been anything special. The Bearcats might not cover the double-digit spread, but they should win.

UTSA is the tougher call at home against UAB, as the Blazers have been pretty solid on defense this season. However, they have given up at least 30 points on four occasions and really struggled against both Georgia (who hasn't) and Liberty (more concerning). Sincere McCormick ranked second in the nation in total rushing yards last season, and he has been almost as potent this season for the Roadrunners, currently averaging 115.0 yards per game.

He'll cause enough problems for UAB's defense for UTSA to get its 11th straight victory.

Morgan Moriarty

Love this question, because all three of these teams have unique matchups in front of them.

Baylor, who is unbeaten at home and riding high after an upset win over Oklahoma last week, goes on the road to face a 7-3 Kansas State team. Although the Wildcats dropped three straight against Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Iowa State earlier in the season, K-State has managed to rattle off four straight wins. I think this one will be quite close, but I think Baylor is the more balanced team on both sides of the ball and can pull this out.

Oklahoma State is a 10-point favorite going on the road to face Texas Tech, per DraftKings. Although both of these offenses have plenty of firepower, Oklahoma State's eighth-ranked scoring defense should give the Cowboys the ability to avoid a shootout and secure a win.

Meanwhile, the Sooners will be trying to rebound after suffering their first loss of the season. Luckily, Oklahoma gets to play Iowa State at home. The Sooners are only 3.5-point favorites, but Oklahoma should be able to win a close one at home.

In conclusion, yes, all three win.

Kerry Miller

Short answer: No. And that admittedly isn't a bold stance to take.

Based on odds I'm currently seeing, a three-leg moneyline parlay on Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to all win would have a +299 payout, meaning there's a roughly 25 percent chance it'll happen.

I definitely like Oklahoma State to hold up its end of the bargain. The Cowboys are getting a little more attention now that they're up to No. 9 in the CFP rankings, but they have quietly been good all season long, especially on defense. They're going to slow down Texas Tech, and Jaylen Warren and Co. should be able to run all over the Red Raiders.

I also think Baylor will win at Kansas State, though I'm considerably less sure about that one. KSU has won four straight and has several massive X-factor guys in Deuce Vaughn, Malik Knowles and Phillip Brooks. But I think Baylor's more balanced approach on offense will win out in a close one.

But I believe Oklahoma lets another one slip away this week against Iowa State.

The Sooners have another quarterback crisis on their hands after both Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler did not look right in the loss to Baylor. And then slightly out of left field this week, there was a lot of chatter on social media about Lincoln Riley possibly getting (and perhaps considering) a massive offer to take the LSU job. Whether there's any truth to that, needing to repeatedly field questions about it could be a distraction in advance of a tough opponent.

To be clear, I was on Iowa State to pull off the upset even before that LSU stuff surfaced. It just makes me feel a little better about backing Brock Purdy and Breece Hall.

Brad Shepard

Sooooo, about the Steve Sarkisian era…

Though few actually think the first-year coach could get canned already, it has been a historically horrible year in Austin. The last time the Longhorns lost this many consecutive games, Dwight D. Eisenhower was president in 1956.

Enter into that picture the West Virginia Mountaineers. Coach Neal Brown's team is having a disappointing season as well. Both teams sit at 4-6, and there isn't a lot of excitement anywhere to be found. 

But a bowl game is still attainable for both programs, and it would be a nice rebound for that to happen.

If the Mountaineers get past Texas, they close the year with a winnable game against Kansas. The Horns have a tougher road, closing the year against Kansas State, but they could rally as well.

This weekend is a must-win for both teams. The nod goes to the Mountaineers, who are playing at home in Morgantown. West Virginia is a slight favorite, as it should be. This is going to be a close, hotly contested game.

I don't expect Texas to be coming home happy.

Kerry Miller

Losing Bijan Robinson (dislocated elbow) for the remainder of the season does not inspire much confidence in the Longhorns to turn things around in these final two weeks.

They do still have two capable rushing threats in Roschon Johnson and Keilan Robinson, but Bijan was their bell cow who was also a major factor in the receiving game. It's difficult to imagine his absence not having a negative impact on their offense. And we're talking about an offense that had already been struggling for the past month, aside from putting up 56 points in the overtime loss to Kansas.

Despite its 4-6 record, West Virginia has had a respectable season outside of getting completely shut down in a 24-3 loss to Oklahoma State two weeks ago. The Mountaineers should be able to put points on the board against a woeful Texas defense. They also have a secondary that has held eight of the last nine opponents below 270 passing yards, which means Texas isn't likely have much success by pivoting to passing more in the absence of Robinson.

So, yes, Texas loses its sixth game in a row, resulting in more serious questions about Steve Sarkisian's future with the program.

For what it's worth, Texas has had only two seasons in program history with eight or more losses, the more recent of which came in 1956. If the Longhorns indeed lose to WVU and subsequently fall to Kansas State next Friday, a pink slip for the first-year coach would be a rash decision, but a somewhat understandable one.

No matter what happens, though, we'll always have Pole Assassin. OK. Cool. Hook 'em!

Adam Kramer

What a delightful question.

Let me start off by saying how much joy it brings me to see a punter/field-goal kicker generating this much buzz. People are tuning into San Diego State to watch Matt Araiza punt. Well, at least I am.

Araiza is averaging more than 52 yards per punt, although that's just the start. He has an 86-yard punt this season. He also punted a ball that traveled 84 yards in the air against Air Force, which sounds like a glitch in a video game. 

As for the question at hand, I'll go over. He's booting 60-yard punts with regularity, and he should get ample cracks against his latest opponent. While UNLV's record is less than ideal, the Rebels have won two in a row while playing considerably better defense. 

With San Diego State's offense still a work in progress, the punter could be active on the road. That's good news for all of us.

Here comes a 71-yard punt. I'll be watching.

Kerry Miller

This game between San Diego State and UNLV kicks off at 11:30 p.m. ET on Friday night, which means it'll likely end at about 3 a.m. in my neck of the woods.

But the thrill of watching Punt God do his thing might be enough to get me through to the finish line.

A smarter, more well-adjusted human being would record the game and enjoy a morning cup of coffee while fast-forwarding through the not-good offenses to get to the good stuff. But where's the fun in that?

The question here isn't "Can Matt Araiza demolish a football with his left foot?" We already know that he can. The man already has multiple punts of more than 80 yards this season, as well as a 79-yarder a few weeks ago at Hawai'i.

The real question here is "Is UNLV's defense good enough to force San Diego State to punt from inside its own 30?" And I'm less sure of that, so I'll go with under 69.5 for Araiza's longest punt of the night.

Here's hoping I'm very wrong, though.

Brad Shepard

Yes, the Demon Deacons are going to be able to do enough offensively to get the job done.

Boy, how far has Clemson fallen? After six straight years in the College Football Playoff, the Tigers have dropped off the face of the college football planet.

After understandably starting the year with a loss to Georgia, the Tigers dropped games to North Carolina State and Pittsburgh. Now they're facing an explosive offensive attack led by Sam Hartman that is almost as good as what Pitt brings to the table. That doesn't bode well for a Tigers team that has struggled to punch the ball into the end zone.

When you throw in the fact Justyn Ross won't play, that takes away Clemson's biggest threat on an offense that otherwise doesn't have enough weapons.

Wake Forest isn't going to throw the ball all around the field and score at will against Clemson, and the Tigers will score some points against a porous Demon Deacons defense. But the best unit on the field is Dave Clawson's offense. Though Clemson is much more talented, it doesn't have the horses to keep up on the scoreboard.

Wake is going to win this game something like 31-26.

Kerry Miller

Back on Sunday when I was putting together my picks for the week, I liked Clemson to win 38-31. That's an unusual amount of offense for the Tigers this season, but they had been looking better over the past few weeks. Wake Forest's defense has been all sorts of not good, and Clemson hasn't lost in Death Valley in more than five years.

But then we found out that Ross—who has more than twice as many receptions in 2021 as his next-closest teammate—will be out for the rest of the season following foot surgery. Now, I don't think Clemson will be able to outscore Wake Forest.

The Tigers do have a great defense. However, so does North Carolina State, and the Demon Deacons just dropped 45 points on the Wolfpack last Saturday. They have scored at least 35 points in each game this season, and I don't understand why Hartman (316.3 passing yards, 32.9 rushing yards, 3.9 total touchdowns per game) hasn't been more of a factor in the Heisman conversation.

Perhaps a big day on the road against Clemson will do the trick. Hartman accounts for four touchdowns in a 31-27 Wake Forest victory.

Morgan Moriarty

As a Florida alumnus that just saw her alma mater give up 530 total yards and 52 points to FCS Samford, let me first state that the Gators are absolutely going to lose Saturday.

Missouri's offense is led by running back Tyler Badie, who has 1,247 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the season. Meanwhile, Florida's rushing defense ranks 78th in the country, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 157.7 yards per game. Not to mention, this one is in Columbia, and the Gators haven't won on the road since Week 2 against South Florida. So, yeah, Florida will have to get bowl eligibility next week against Florida State.

Tennessee, meanwhile, should have no problems at home against South Alabama. The Vols are four-touchdown favorites over the 5-5 Jaguars, and South Alabama has lost its last four games on the road.

Lastly, Miami is recovering from an embarrassing loss to Florida State last week. The Canes' defense gave up 11 points in the final five minutes. Miami then got the ball back in the final seconds, and before getting a chance to throw a Hail Mary, it lined up to spike the ball with two seconds left. Which isn't allowed. 

This one will be close, but Miami should pull it out at home, mainly because Virginia Tech has to play on the road with an interim head coach (co-defensive line coach J.C. Price) after firing Justin Fuente on Monday.

Kerry Miller

Let's tackle these in descending order of confidence.

First, Tennessee is going to beat South Alabama. The Jaguars have yet to defeat an FBS team that is currently better than 3-7, while it sure feels like the Volunteers would be better than 5-5 if they hadn't faced current No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Alabama, No. 12 Ole Miss and No. 18 Pittsburgh. Hendon Hooker leads Tennessee to a comfortable victory and a likely spot in either the Liberty Bowl or the Texas Bowl.

Florida at Missouri is a tough call, since the Gators have become such a laughingstock over the past few weeks. But last week's 70-52 win over Samford was a vivid reminder of how potent this offense can be. Yeah, it was Samford, but it's not like Missouri's defense has been able to stop anything this season. Florida survives what might be the highest-scoring game of the week.

And then I have no clue what to make of Virginia Tech at Miami, aside from assuming it's going to come right down to the wire, as the Hurricanes have played in six consecutive games decided by four points or fewer.

VT firing Fuente this week adds a new wrinkle, but it doesn't mean we write off the Hokies. Not after USC blew out Washington State and TCU upset Baylor in the first week after firing its head coaches earlier this season. And I like the Hokies secondary to lead them to a slight upset. (Though Miami will still secure its spot in bowl season by defeating Duke next week.)

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