What Top 2021 Heisman Trophy Contenders Must Do to Catch the Favorites

In a congested Heisman Trophy race, it's officially now-or-never for the leading candidates.

This season, ballots are due Dec. 6. That means 2021's top contenders only have two regular-season games and a possible conference championship to add a couple of victories, pad stats and find that ever-elusive "Heisman moment" for their resume.

Heading into Week 12, the leading group contains Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III and Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud. They're all likely to earn an invite to the Heisman ceremony as finalists.

But can anyone else close the gap?

Ole Miss signal-caller Matt Corral and Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett are still in the hunt. So too are Alabama edge-rusher Will Anderson or Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis. The odds are against them, for sure, but we're examining the chances of this chasing group to catch up with Young, Walker and Stroud.

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Consistent excellence is the most succinct way to describe Young's season. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in every game and only fallen short of 8.0 yards per attempt in two.

Heading into Week 12, he ranks eighth in yards per attempt (9.3), 13th in yards per game (302.5) and third in touchdown passes (33). Young has guided the Crimson Tide to a 9-1 record, and he didn't play badly in that shortcoming against Texas A&M. A loss is a loss, but Young won't be dinged for 369 yards and three scores any more than the other favorites are for respectable games in their respective losses.

Young could use a signature moment, but he has several good chances left. Alabama finishes the year opposite Arkansas, Auburn and—with one victory in either of those games—against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

                 

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State

The nation's leading in both rushing yards per game (147.3) and touchdowns (17), Walker has assembled a brilliant year for a surprise contender. Michigan State holds a 9-1 record.

Next up, though, is arguably his most important game.

If he outperforms Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud in an MSU victory on Saturday, that'll provide a massive boost to Walker's candidacy. He already has a Heisman moment with 197 yards and five touchdowns in the comeback win over Michigan.

                

C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Early in the season, continuing to include Stroud amid a rough stretch felt oddly polarizing. That might be an anecdotal experience, but he's nevertheless established himself as a favorite.

Last weekend, Stroud thrashed Purdue's hopes of an upset with 361 yards and five touchdowns. He's now up to 337.3 yards per game with 9.8 per attempt and 30 scores, all of which are top-six marks in the FBS. Stroud has only tossed five interceptions too.

Ohio State's final stretch of Michigan State, Michigan and potentially the Big Ten Championship Game is challenging, but a few strong performances will lock in Stroud's status as a top candidate.

Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

Can someone magically heal his ankles? That would help.

Corral spent much of the first six weeks as the favorite or co-leader in the Heisman race, but the numbers haven't been so glamorous lately. Since the epic 52-51 victory over Arkansas, Corral has accounted for seven touchdowns in five games.

Plus, unlike everyone else on the list, Corral has little hope of a conference championship game. Alabama only needs one more victory to clinch the division. And the Rebels' last two games—Vanderbilt and Mississippi State—aren't exactly going to provide him with a chance for a signature moment.

Honestly? Corral's chances are low. He basically needs the favorites to collapse in these final contests.

Still, with 329.7 yards of total offense per game, 27 total scores, only two interceptions and Ole Miss' 8-2 record in the vaunted SEC, he's slightly better than a long shot.

                         

Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

For voters, team success is often a key separating factor. That's the primary downfall for Pickett, who like Corral is having a spectacular season on a two-loss team.

The bright side is that Pitt has a best-case scenario finish of 11-2 as the ACC champion. If the Panthers manage that and Pickett has three more excellent games, he absolutely can be a threat. There's a realistic—even if unlikely—path to each of Alabama, Michigan State and Ohio State dropping a second game.

Pickett needs that to happen.

Although he threw six touchdowns against Western Michigan and put 519 yards on Miami, those were still two ugly losses. Since his production (3,748 total yards and 36 touchdowns) isn't obliterating the rest of the field, most voters won't be so gracious when comparing those results to the other leading contenders.

Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama

Two years ago, Ohio State's Chase Young jammed his Heisman resume with 21 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks. However, he finished fourth behind a trio of quarterbacks—including teammate Justin Fields, who checked in third.

Anderson has a similar problem.

Bryce Young is Alabama's top contender, slightly overshadowing an excellent year from Anderson, who leads the FBS in both tackles for loss (23) and sacks (12.5), and he's totaled 67 tackles.

But as long as the Crimson Tide are winning, Young will probably keep grabbing the headlines. Anderson's hopes of a surprise ascent will likely require a massive performance to beat Georgia in a low-scoring SEC Championship Game.

              

Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

Although he's built a swell of vocal support, Jordan Davis won't appeal to many traditional voters.

Perhaps you think defensive players merit more consideration, and that's a worthwhile conversation. Given that he hasn't played half of Georgia's snaps this season, though, it's hard to argue Davis is more impactful than the other candidates.

Yes, his impact can't be appreciated in the box score. But voters love stats, and Davis doesn't shine there.

He's provided 3.5 stops for loss and two sacks, which is well below past defensive tackles who received Heisman consideration. Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh (fourth in 2009) collected 19.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks in time for voting, and Alabama's Quinnen Williams (eighth in 2018) produced 18.0 and eight, respectively.

Short of something like six sacks and multiple takeaways in the last three games, Davis will garner scattered votes in the back of the race—and a whole lot of All-American nods.

                  

Sam Hartman, QB, Wake Forest

Had the Demon Deacons stayed undefeated, Sam Hartman might've had a chance to crack the leading group. Instead, he's destined for a top-10 finish without some chaos ahead of him.

Now, his numbers are incredible. The sophomore ranks fifth nationally with 349.1 offensive yards per game, and only one quarterback—Western Kentucky's Bailey Zappe (45)—has more combined passing and rushing touchdowns than Hartman's 39.

Hartman has a chance for a signature moment Saturday against Clemson, which has the No. 5 defense in the country. But that would mostly get Hartman back into consideration.

To truly compete for the Heisman, Hartman needs Wake Forest to finish 12-1 with an ACC title while Young, Walker, Stroud and the others have mediocre games from here on.

Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

As mentioned with Davis, the Heisman is largely about numbers. Desmond Ridder trails his QB counterparts in that department.

While he's amassed 242.5 yards per game, that ranks 39th nationally. The other five quarterbacks in  meaningful contention are no worse than 15th. Ridder is also tied with Corral for the fewest total touchdowns (27) in that six-man group.

One valuable appeal for Ridder is Cincinnati's 10-0 record, and team success is important to voters too. But a non-Power Five quarterback hasn't earned a top-three finish since Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch in 2013, let alone anything more.

Ridder needs to have his best statistical games of the season and the Bearcats to reach 13-0 to even reach the top five.

                    

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State

It's a tough life as the second-best Heisman contender on an offense. TreVeyon Henderson is having a fantastic freshman year, racking up 1,035 yards and 14 touchdowns as a runner with 16 receptions for 223 yards and three scores.

Stroud is clearly the Buckeyes' top contender ahead of Henderson, though. Besides, Henderson is 300 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown behind Walker.

Rising from his current slot as a top-10 option will require a couple of 200-plus-yard showings down the stretch—and for Stroud to not have productive games. And in reality, that would probably be a net negative for Ohio State collectively.