Purdue vs. Ohio State: Top Prospects, Storylines, Odds for B/R Game of the Week
Can the Purdue Boilermakers pull off another upset?
That storyline is undoubtedly a key reason the B/R community has chosen No. 19 Purdue's trip to face the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes as the Game of the Week. The Boilermakers are seeking their third victory over a Top 10 opponent this season.
While the Big Ten matchup received 39.0 percent of your 5,337 votes, it clipped the Big 12 showdown between No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 13 Baylor at 32.9 percent. No. 11 Texas A&M vs. No. 15 Ole Miss (23.6 percent) and No. 16 NC State vs. No. 12 Wake Forest (4.6) rounded out the options for Week 11.
This preview includes top NFL draft prospects, two important storylines and the latest betting odds for the clash in Columbus, Ohio.
Top NFL Draft Prospects
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
As a freshman in 2019, George Karlaftis burst onto the draft radar. The local product collected 17.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks for the Boilers.
Although an injury and positive COVID-19 test limited him last season, he's recovered nicely in 2021. He's posted 29 total tackles with 7.5 for loss and three sacks, forcing three fumbles and returning one fumble for a touchdown.
Karlaftis is a potential top-10 pick.
The Receiver Show
We could individually highlight Ohio State standouts Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave along with Purdue star David Bell. All three are definite first-round prospects for the 2022 draft.
Given the Buckeyes' depth at receiver, it's no surprise Bell has generated the most production. He's reeled in 64 passes for a Big Ten-leading 1,003 yards, catching five touchdowns. He has tallied 665 more yards than Purdue's No. 2 receiver.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who isn't draft-eligible until 2023, actually leads OSU in receptions (50) and yards (888). But both Wilson (43/687) and Olave (42/623) are close behind. Olave has a team-best 10 touchdown catches, and Wilson is second with six.
If your favorite NFL team needs receivers, there isn't a better game on the schedule to watch.
3rd-and-O'Connell
Purdue has earned two Top 5 upsets in 2021, and Aidan O'Connell played a key role in both victories with third-down success.
When the Boilers defeated Iowa in October, he connected on 11-of-12 third-down passes for 145 yards and added a rushing score. Those 12 attempts resulted in one touchdown and six first downs, helping Purdue shock the Hawkeyes 24-7.
Last weekend at Michigan State, the senior completed 9-of-13 attempts for 159 yards. Along with one touchdown, the other eight completions gave Purdue a first down.
And for the Boilers to topple Ohio State, it must happen again.
On numbers alone, this is a potential issue for the Buckeyes. Opponents have moved the chains on 46.2 percent of third-down pass attempts, the highest rate in the Big Ten.
Sure, a few blowout wins—and intentionally risk-averse defensive calls late in the game—may have inflated those numbers. But if O'Connell can shred a spectacular Iowa secondary, he can do the same to the Buckeyes' unit.
Ohio State's Red-Zone Woes
Total yardage is never a concern for Ohio State. Through nine games, the Buckeyes rank second nationally in both yards per play (7.9) and per game (541.8). Given how effectively they move the ball, this offense is rarely short on scoring opportunities.
The problem is what the Buckeyes do with those chances.
Although the 94.7 red-zone scoring rate is fifth-best in the FBS, that's not the best measurement. Ohio State's red-zone touchdown rate of 65.8 percent is just 43rd in the country. The Buckeyes are leaving a lot of points on the field.
Most frustratingly for Ohio State, this is a new challenge. The offense scored 23 touchdowns in 29 red-zone possessions through seven games but only two in nine chances during the last two weeks.
Purdue has a slightly above-average defense, so Ohio State should move the ball effectively. However, the Boilers rank 15th nationally in red-zone touchdown rate allowed.
The defense will bend. C.J. Stroud, TreVeyon Henderson and the Buckeyes' offense needs to make it break.
Game Information and Odds
When: Saturday, Nov. 13 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio
TV: ABC
Stream: WatchESPN
Spread (via DraftKings): Ohio State -21
Total: 63
Moneyline: Ohio State -1250 (bet $1250 to win $100); Purdue +750 (bet $100 to win $750)
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