Yankees or Elsewhere? Best Landing Spots for A's Matt Olson Amid Trade Rumors

Teams that would rather not sign Freddie Freeman to a nine-figure contract in free agency are in luck, because there's a cheaper and arguably just as good first baseman on the trade market.

His name is Matt Olson.

According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Oakland Athletics general manager David Forst is realistic about listening to offers for everyone at a time when the club's payroll needs to come down. Per Andy Martino of SNY, "Olson is one of several players who will likely be on the move" this winter.

Thus, we have our cue to weigh the All-Star and two-time Gold Glover's trade value and hypothesize about where he fits best.

After enjoying a cup of coffee with the A's in 2016, Olson settled into an everyday role in Oakland in impressive fashion in 2017. He needed only 59 games to amass a 1.003 OPS and 24 home runs.

In four seasons since then, Olson has posted an .848 OPS and 118 homers to go with 15.3 rWAR, the latter of which leads American League first basemen. Following a down year in 2020, the 27-year-old was never better than in 2021 as he set career highs with 39 homers and 5.8 rWAR.

Because Olson is also under club control for two more years, his hypothetical value is at least equivalent to where Paul Goldschmidt's was after 2018.

With Goldschmidt only a year away from free agency, the Arizona Diamondbacks cashed him in for right-hander Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals. Neither was arbitration-eligible yet, and both had been top-100 prospects before arriving in the majors.

If we assume that the baseline price for Olson is two major leaguers—or, alternatively, major league-ready prospects—we can begin a list of potential suitors in a place just across the bay from Oakland.

It was only a few weeks ago that the San Francisco Giants capped a historic 107-win season, yet the roster that got it done is no longer intact.

Longtime catcher Buster Posey has retired, and free agency has come calling for several of the Giants' most important players. Among them is one of baseball's most underappreciated first basemen, Brandon Belt.

He had a heck of an 11-year run with the Giants between 2011 and 2021. He was an above-average hitter in all but one of those seasons, and he became downright great as he hit to a .988 OPS and 38 homers over the last two campaigns.

The catch, though, is that the 33-year-old Belt has missed significant time with injuries in three of the last five seasons. As he's played in 89 more games than Belt since 2018, Olson's relative durability on its own could therefore tempt the Giants to trade for him rather than re-sign Belt.

The tricky part here, though, is what the A's could extract from their cross-bay rivals. Catcher Joey Bart would have been a feasible centerpiece a couple of weeks ago, but less so now following Posey's retirement. So unless the A's are interested in center fielder Steven Duggar, the two sides make for ill-fitting trade partners.

Freddie Freeman officially entered the free-agent market Monday, yet he and Atlanta would prefer to continue a partnership that began in 2010 and culminated in World Series glory earlier this month.

To quote general manager Alex Anthopoulos: "Look, he's a free agent. By rule, obviously I can't say a whole lot, other than what I've said in the past. We love him, he's great, we want him to stay, he wants to stay."

However, it is possible that Freeman's price will become too high for Atlanta. He's likely to at least match Goldschmidt's $130 million guarantee from 2019. Atlanta has paid as much to retain Freeman once before, but it's never done a nine-figure deal in free agency.

In the event that Freeman does depart, pivoting to Olson is about as good a Plan B as Atlanta could hope for. As a left-handed hitter with power and Gold Glove-caliber defensive skills, he's practically a carbon copy of Freeman. Except, five years younger.

To acquire Olson, Atlanta might headline an offer with speedy center fielder Cristian Pache and then tack on one of its extraneous arms. Kyle Wright, for example, is the kind of post-hype prospect that the A's have had success with over the years.

The Milwaukee Brewers were good enough to win 95 games in the regular season but not good enough to advance past the first round of the playoffs for one simple reason: They couldn't hit.

As a team, the Brew Crew couldn't even muster a .700 OPS in three of the season's six months. One of their more notable shortcomings was at first base, where their guys ranked 25th with a .716 OPS.

To this end, Rowdy Tellez isn't a feasible everyday option going forward. Though he had his moments for Milwaukee—including the club's only two homers in the National League Division Series opposite Atlanta—he has just a .770 OPS for his career and is a poor defender (i.e., minus-seven defensive runs saved) at first.

Olson wouldn't just be the offensive upgrade the Brewers need at first base. He'd also be a substantial defensive improvement, as he leads all first basemen in defensive runs saved over the last five seasons.

In exchange for Olson, the Brewers could offer the A's a post-hype dice roll in slugger-turned-reserve Keston Hiura. They could also trade from their pitching depth, perhaps by offering wild yet talented left-hander Aaron Ashby.

First base was simultaneously a strength and a weakness for the Boston Red Sox in the last two months of 2021, wherein the position ranked first in offense but last in defense, according to FanGraphs.

While Bobby Dalbec and trade newcomer Kyle Schwarber took turns whacking the heck out of the ball, both were about equally inept in the field. Famously, Schwarber even celebrated making a routine play in October.

Schwarber is a free agent now, leaving Dalbec in charge of the cold corner by default. The Red Sox could stick with him and hope that the 26-year-old shows more consistency in 2022, but the catch there is that consistency has never really been Dalbec's thing throughout his pro career.

Instead, Dalbec might be better used as a centerpiece in a deal for Olson. The Red Sox could further entice the A's by dangling speedy center fielder Jarren Duran, who's already done some time in the majors yet is still our No. 73 prospect.

But if a package of that magnitude doesn't make the Red Sox pause, what might is how Olson's offensive skills fit at Fenway Park. He's a dead-pull hitter from the left side, and as such not a good candidate to make good use of the Green Monster.

If only there were another team in the American League East that also needed a first baseman and whose home park would jibe with Olson's left-handed power.

Oh, wait...

So obvious is this fit, in fact, that the New York Yankees have already had internal discussions about making it a reality, according to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. A trade for Olson would replace Anthony Rizzo, who's a free agent, and upgrade over Luke Voit, who's a potential non-tender candidate after an injury-ruined season.

As a 6'5", 225-pounder in his own right, Olson would fit right in alongside supersized sluggers Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Gallo. And of all the non-homer fly balls he hit in Oakland between 2017 and 2021, it's noticeable that quite a few would have cleared the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium.

Regarding what the Yankees can offer for Olson, the A's might like Gleyber Torres as a change-of-scenery candidate but would also be justified in demanding more. And we're not just talking fellow change-of-scenery guys like Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier, but also higher-floor talents like starting pitchers Deivi Garcia or Luis Gil.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.