UFC 268 Predictions: Bleacher Report Staff Main Card Picks

The UFC will return to our screens this Saturday with a stacked UFC 268 pay-per-view out of New York City's hallowed Madison Square Garden. The card will be the UFC's first in The Big Apple since The Before Times, and the promotion has pulled out all the stops to celebrate the occasion.

The event will be topped by a pair of compelling championship rematches. In the evening's headliner, dominating welterweight champion Kamaru Usman will look for his fifth title defense against outspoken contender Colby Covington. The pair first met at the tail end of 2019, with Usman winning by fifth-round TKO in an instant classic, but a lot has changed since then, so we could be in for a very different fight this time around. 

The card will be co-headlined by a strawweight title fight, as reigning champion Rose Namajunas looks to defend the division's ultimate prize against the woman she won it from: Chinese superstar Zhang Weili. Namajunas won the first fight, which went down earlier this year, with a first-round head-kick knockout. However, Zhang's previous dominance and the abrupt nature of the first fight have many fans expecting a different outcome this Saturday. 

Generally speaking, two title fights would be more than enough to sell a UFC pay-per-view, but that's certainly not all this one has to offer. Before Usman and Namajunas attempt to defend their titles, we'll be treated to a ridiculously appetizing lightweight bout between top-five contenders Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler. Throw in a similar alluring featherweight fight between Billy Quarantillo and Shane Burgos and an interesting bantamweight battle between the legendary Frankie Edgar and the rising Marlon Vera, and it's safe to say we're in for a good night. 

Keep scrolling to see who the B/R combat sports team is picking in these five main card fights.

Scott Harris: Man, what an outstanding card, capped by the sport's current pound-for-pound kingpin. Ever since linking up with super-coach Trevor Wittman, Usman has steadily improved his game, particularly in the standup area. Neither man attempted a takedown in the original match, with their respective wrestling bases presumably canceling each other out. If it goes that way again, Usman will use combinations and body attacks to soften the challenger for a big stoppage that ends this rivalry once and for all. 

Usman by TKO, Rd. 3

Lyle Fitzsimmons: If the sequel is anything close to the original, it'll be a winner. Two supremely talented and rugged guys with a genuine enmity for one another. That's good news for everyone watching. Maybe not so good news for Covington, though. Usman took the measure of him the first time around, and I haven't seen anything in the interim that convinces me the result will change. A super-satisfying title defense.

Usman by KO, Rd. 4 

Tom Taylor: It's been almost two years since Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington first fought. A lot can change in that time. For all we know, Covington has shored up the holes in his game and is now twice the fighter Usman ever was—but that just doesn't seem likely. We've only seen Covington fight once since he lost to Usman, beating the ghost of Tyron Woodley over a year ago, and he didn't flaunt any glaring improvements in that appearance. Usman, meanwhile, has won three fights since then, and if his stoppages of Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal are any indication, he seems to have discovered some nascent knockout power. Considering he was already about as perfect as fighters get, that's a scary thought. 

It'll be interesting to see how Covington has changed since his first loss to Usman, but all the information suggests Usman is far better than he was the first time around. I'm with my sagacious colleagues on this one: the champ wins again—and faster. 

Usman by TKO, Rd. 3

Scott Harris: When was a champ this good and this beloved overlooked so consistently? As of Wednesday, Namajunas was a slim +100 underdog to the former champ in Weili, whom Namajunas defeated in April. I'm going to learn from experience here and sound the upset alarms. The champ may not land anything dramatic this time, as she did with that massive head kick in the original bout, but she should rely on her slick striking to outwork and outpoint the challenger.

Namajunas by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I've got to admit, I thought Weili was close to unbeatable heading into Jacksonville. And then I sat cage-side and saw her, well, get beat. But I'm nothing if not stubborn. I think the ex-champ does the things she planned to do the first time around and grinds her nemesis over the long haul. Sign me up in advance for the trilogy bout. 

Zhang by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: Unlike Usman and Covington, Rose Namajunas and Weili Zhang literally just fought—we're talking less than a year ago. Based on that, it's easy to forecast another nasty Namajunas knockout. After all, how much can Zhang have possibly evolved since their first fight?

That forecast, of course, ignores the fact that Namajunas and Zhang's first fight only lasted 78 seconds. This isn't to suggest Namajunas' win was a fluke, but we just didn't get to see what Zhang is actually capable of. I expect the Chinese star to do much better this time around. Look for her to land the harder punches, mix in some of the takedowns she's no doubt been training alongside Henry Cejudo and most importantly: not get kicked in the head.

Zhang by unanimous decision

Scott Harris: There's only one thing to do for this fight. Batten down the hatches, pop the popcorn and enjoy. I wish Gaethje was far more active than he is, but also I get it. I wouldn't wish 15 minutes in the cage with his super-aggressive power striking on my worst enemy. Chandler is better all around, but Gaethje's takedown defense will make this a standup affair, and with Gaethje it only takes one. 

Gaethje by KO, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Holy cow, what a good show this is when this one isn't even the co-main event. I respect Gaethje a ton. I still cringe when I remember the number he did on a then-streaking Tony Ferguson and essentially ended—at least for now—his top-shelf career. But I feel like Chandler has more to offer. If he doesn't get brutalized, I think he gets enough done in 15 minutes to win on the cards.

Chandler by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: Since the moment this fight was announced, the prevailing narrative has been that Gaethje and Chandler are very similar: They're both wrestlers, they both possess ridiculous knockout power, they both love to brawl, blah, blah, blah.

OK fine, it's true that Gaethje and Chandler are similar in many ways. Yet there is one area where they're definitely different: Gaethje has proven he's almost impossible to knock out, while Chandler has been stopped in four of his six losses and been stung in more occasions than that. That durability differential is going to matter in a matchup like this.

Gaethje by KO, Rd. 2

Scott Harris: These two are the most anonymous fighters on the main card, and you know what that means: action fight! Burgos has dropped two straight, but both took Fight of the Night honors, making them financial as well as moral victories. This is easily Quarantillo's biggest fight to date, and he's here because 12 of his 16 professional wins have come by stoppage. Burgos is the more polished and experienced of the two, so I'll ride with the Bronx native until circumstances recommend otherwise. 

Burgos by unanimous decision 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Where my man Scott decided to go with the Bronx native, I've got to go the other direction and ride with the guy who was born in the same Western New York county I was. Albeit he was a couple decades later. And while I concede Burgos is the more well-rounded of these two, I think this one—unlike Chandler-Gaethje—is going to come down to the guy who gets finishes.  

Quarantillo by TKO, Rd. 3

Tom Taylor: UFC President Dana White has probably already made out Fight of the Night checks for Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler, but he may want to think twice, because this featherweight scrap might just steal the show. Quarantillo is as venomous as finishers get, giving the judges a break in all but four of his 17 victories. Burgos has needed the judges even fewer times, finishing all but three of his 13 wins, and has also won four Fight of the Night bonuses in nine fights. 

It'd be easy to say the real winner of this fight will be the fans, but I'm not that cheesy. Besides, you came here for a prediction, so I'll give you one. Like my man Scott, I think Burgos' well-roundedness and big-stage experience will carry him to victory.  

Burgos by unanimous decision

Scott Harris: Edgar is a +145 underdog here for a reason, given he's lost three of his last four. But now think about those opponents who have beaten him: Cory Sandhagen, Korean Zombie and Max Holloway. That's a pretty good list. Vera's not at that level, and while he can certainly finish the former champ if given the opportunity, Edgar will still have enough quickness to evade the slower man. Sound the upset alarms.

Edgar by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: My viewpoint on this one is pretty simple. One guy is 28 and on something at least resembling a roll. The other guy is 40 and, even though he possesses a far more impressive resume, has lost three of four in the last two years and five of nine since the start of 2016. So as much as I respect championship pedigree, I tend to lean toward Father Time in situations like this.

Vera by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: This is such a weird fight. If you were to match Edgar and Vera up against the same 10 opponents, I'd expect Vera to emerge with the much better win-loss ratio of the two. Yet this particular matchup seems tailor made for Edgar. Even at 40 years old—which is absolutely ancient for a bantamweight—he should be fast and strong enough to hang with Vera on the feet and on the mat. Throw in the fact that Vera, despite being a solid puncher, has never been much of a one-strike KO threat, and Edgar's chances of a win look even higher.

You've surely heard the old adage that "styles make fights" in MMA. This matchup, in which the more dangerous competitor overall is likely to lose, is a perfect example of that adage's veracity.

Edgar by unanimous decision

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