Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant: B/R Staff Predictions

When it comes to boxing, it's a tale as old as time and a song as old as rhyme.

Nothing generates a pre-fight buzz quite like a good, old-fashioned press conference scrum.

So whether you believe the melee at their late-September get-together in Beverly Hills was authentic or manufactured, it was a fitting way to fire up the hype machine for the super middleweight unification bout matching Canelo Alvarez and Caleb Plant that'll finally take place this weekend.

On the line at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas will not only be Alvarez's collection of WBA, WBC and WBO hardware that back up his claim to be the best of the 168-pounders, but also his current standings as both the sport's pay-per-view bell cow and its top pound-for-pound fighter.

As for Plant, he'll bring his IBF share of the divisional empire and a seemingly genuine confidence.

"There have been some guys who lost before the bell even rang against Canelo," he said during a virtual press conference in late October. "I think that's why he's so irritated with me. Some guys just come in and are there to hand over their belt, get their check and leave.

"Anyone who knows me, they know I'm only here for those belts."

The fight will top a four-bout Showtime pay-per-view broadcast that'll start Saturday at 9 p.m. ET.

It'll cost $79.99 to see how it turns out, but before you lay out cash, three members of the B/R combat sports team—Tom Taylor, Scott Harris and Lyle Fitzsimmons—got together to predict the result.

Take a look at what we came up with, and drop a line or two with your own picks in the comments.

I may be in the minority here, but I expect Caleb Plant to give Canelo a very tough fight this Saturday.

The IBF super middleweight champ possesses many of the traits and skills that have been effective against the Mexican superstar in the past, namely slick lateral movement and a venomous and versatile lead hand. Those weapons are likely to be most effective early in the fight, when Canelo is still downloading information.

During those preliminary phases, I expect Plant to rely heavily on his jab, sometimes with the intention of landing it, other times using it as a feint to draw out parries and get around Canelo's vaunted guard with more meaningful impacts like the lead left hook. If the American keeps his foot on the gas, he might win a few rounds as a result, but eventually Canelo will begin to adapt.

Plant's feints won't elicit responses the same way they did earlier in the fight, and his lateral movement will become a less effective means of avoiding danger as Canelo begins to ramp up his offense, most likely starting with body shots and graduating to the head when his foe's hands begin to drop.

Once Canelo makes those adjustments, the fight should swing decisively in his favor—though I do think Plant can survive until the final bell.

Depending how successful the American is in the early going, there might be a bit of nail-biting as the decision is read—you never know in boxing—but Canelo should have done more than enough to get the nod.

Canelo by unanimous decision

— Tom Taylor

First off, as usual I need to give props to a fellow redhead making moves out here. With apologies to Prince Harry and Ed Sheeran, I'd say Alvarez is the current king of the gingers.

I'm being told I need to make an actual prediction. Well, it doesn't get any lockier than this. Plant is deader than a Boston fern after two months in a broom closet. He certainly cuts an imposing figure, so that's fun, but his nifty footwork and quickness just aren't enough.

As Tom points out, he has a rangy, powerful jab that could see him score points, but Alvarez's defense is too strong. Canelo has come into his own at 168 pounds, and over time he'll solve Plant and break him down with his power. He also has enough speed to negate Plant's quickness. Come Sunday morning, Plant will be just another victim in a long, grey line of redheaded excellence.

Canelo, TKO, Round 9

— Scott Harris

My learned colleagues are right on point.

Plant is a good fighter. He's got hand speed and footwork for days. And he has the ability to give Canelo difficult moments over their 36 (or fewer) minutes together.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Erislandy Lara gave him difficult moments, too.

Enough difficult moments, in fact, that I think both guys beat him—Floyd by a lot, Lara by a little.

But where Mayweather had the defense that allowed him to stand in the pocket and drive a 23-year-old Alvarez bonkers because he simply couldn't hit him, and Lara had the legs to make it a full-on track meet interspersed with some violence every now and then—Plant will eventually have to stand and fight.

He had to against Jose Uzcategui. He had to against Caleb Truax.

They're the two most determined—although hopelessly limited compared to Canelo—brawlers Plany has faced since reaching the championship level, and the only two men to go 12 rounds with him in a title fight.

Plant had enough oomph in his shots to at least dissuade them.

He dropped Uzcategui—a rugged character who'd only hit the deck twice in 30 fights—twice in the first four rounds when they met in January 2019. And he both out-threw and outlanded Truax, himself a former world champion in 2017-18, in all 12 rounds of their bout in January.

Still, dissuading Uzcategui and Truax and dissuading Alvarez are slightly different asks.

Alvarez has never been knocked down and, even in bouts against bombers like Sergey Kovalev and Gennady Golovkin, never been punished to the point where a KO loss seemed imminent.

And given that all but two of Plant's stops came before he graduated to 12-rounders, it's an issue.

More of an issue than he's capable of solving.

Canelo, KO, Round 10

— Lyle Fitzsimmons