MLB Free Agents Primed for Career Revival with New Teams in 2022

It's amazing what a change of scenery and a new hitting/pitching coach can do for a Major League Baseball player, and there are a bunch of free agents who might just need different teams in order to rebound from down years in 2021.

These are the potential sneaky bargains of this year's free-agent class. While guys like Corey Seager, Kris Bryant and Marcus Stroman are sure to get big contracts, it will be interesting to see what the market is for the likes of Zach Davies, Kole Calhoun and others who were much better in the 2016-20 timeframe than they were in 2021.

In looking to identify candidates for career revivals, guys with player options for 2022 were not included. Even though Charlie Blackmon and Jackie Bradley Jr. struggled this past season and might bounce back next year, it's pretty unlikely that they'll turn down their options since it's unlikely they would get bigger deals in free agency.

Guys with club options or mutual options are fair game, though.

Maybe it won't be with a new team, because the Yankees would presumably love to keep Anthony Rizzo's left-handed bat in the Bronx.

But Rizzo is certainly in search of some sort of revival after back-to-back subpar seasons.

From 2014-19, Rizzo triple-slashed .284/.388/.513 while averaging 31.8 home runs per 162 games played. While he never came all that close to actually winning one, he was an annual staple on the list of players receiving votes for NL MVP.

Over the past two seasons, though, those batting numbers have plummeted to .240/.343/.432, and the home-run rate is down to 26.9 per 162 games.

By the end of 2019, it seemed inevitable that Rizzo would be signing a "Miguel Cabrera Lite" contract this winter. Maybe instead of $240 million for eight years, it would've been more like $200 million for eight years. But it felt like some team—most likely the Cubs—would be happy to cut a big check to one of the most consistent hitters and one of the best fielding first basemen in the game.

At this point, though, it'd be a surprise if anyone is willing to make a long-term investment that substantial in a 32-year-old who appears to be on the decline. If it does happen, it would probably be on a deal with a considerable number of incentives or team options.

He's still going to get a substantial payday, but my guess is it'll be something more like a three-year, $70 million deal, just in case that revival doesn't happen.

Much like Rizzo, Trevor Story was still pretty darn good in 2021. He was one of just 10 players with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.

He just wasn't quite performing at his typical level of excellence.

Through his first five seasons in Colorado, Story hit .277/.343/.535 with a 162-game home run pace of 36.0. He also stole 80 bases during that time, though it wasn't until his third season that he really started swiping bags.

This past season, amid a constant barrage of trade rumors and free-agency speculation, Story hit .251/.329/.471 at a 162-game pace of 27.4 home runs. He wasn't even selected to represent the Rockies in the All-Star Game, which was held in Colorado. (He did partake in the home-run derby, at least.)

Story should still have quite a few years left in his prime, though. He turns 29 in mid-November, and while power-hitting shortstops do tend to break down a bit faster than most position players, we've seen a fair number of them thrive well into their mid-30s. And if the Mets were willing to sign Francisco Lindor to $34.1 million per year until he's almost 38, Story should be headed for quite the payday of his own.

Who is actually willing and able to make a big offer remains to be seen, but someone is going to bet big on Story bouncing back.

Game 5 of the 2019 NLDS between Atlanta and St. Louis may have irreparably broken Mike Foltynewicz. That was the nightmare in which Atlanta allowed 10 runs in the first inning with "Folty" only lasting 0.1 innings.

The following year, he made just one start for Atlanta, allowing six earned runs in 3.1 innings of work before getting designated for assignment. The Texas Rangers then scooped him up for $2 million for the 2021 season, for which he provided them with a 5.44 ERA and a 2-12 record.

Folty just turned 30 earlier this month, though, and he finished eighth in the NL Cy Young vote in 2018. There were some dreadful performances in 2021—10 earned runs in 1.2 innings against Toronto, in particular—but he also recorded a quality start (at least six innings with three or fewer earned runs) in 11 of his 24 starts this season.

However, the Rangers released him before he could even hit free agency, so they clearly have no interest in bringing back the former first-round pick who occasionally has some terrible body language on the mound. Someone is bound to sign him, though, and he could be a key, inexpensive contributor to a starting rotation.

Foltynewicz was the 19th pick in the 2010 draft. Michael Wacha went 19th in the 2012 draft, and he, too, was pretty valuable as recently as 2018.

But over the past three seasons, he has had a world of trouble just trying to keep the ball in the park.

Through his first six seasons (2013-18), Wacha allowed 0.86 home runs per nine innings. Since the start of 2019, that rate has more than doubled to 1.83.

If the 30-year-old can somehow get that back under control, though, the rest of his numbers are plenty serviceable.

After a career K/9 rate of 7.9 and a career BB/9 rate of 3.1 while with St. Louis, he has improved those numbers to 9.0 and 2.2, respectively, over the past two seasons with the Mets and the Rays. He had a 5.05 ERA in 2021, but his xFIP—which assumes roughly a league average home-run rate on fly balls—was 3.91, which is pretty much exactly on par with what he did with the Cardinals from 2014-18. He also had a 1.31 WHIP in 2021, which is slightly below his 1.33 career mark in St. Louis.

So, again, if he could just cut down on those dingers, he could be a solid back-end-of-the-rotation guy for at least a few more years.

It almost certainly won't be in Tampa Bay, though. That ship probably sailed when he gave up six earned runs over the final three innings of Game 2 of the ALDS against Boston.

Kole Calhoun is not technically a free agent yet. Arizona holds a $9 million team option to bring the 34-year-old outfielder back in 2022.

After a season in which he only played 51 games and slugged .373, though, there's a good chance the Diamondbacks will pass.

Calhoun struggled because of multiple injuries. He had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee in early March. Less than two months later, he had surgery to repair his left hamstring and missed more than two months of action. One more after returning, he re-aggravated the hamstring and missed another month. He couldn't catch a break.

If he's able to heal up over the winter, though, a healthy Calhoun should still have a good amount of value.

Calhoun clubbed 33 home runs in 2019 with the Dodgers and darn near led the NL with 16 dingers in 54 games played with the Diamondbacks in 2020. Between those two seasons, he averaged 17.6 plate appearances per home run and had an OPS of .811.

It's possible, of course, that he never returns to that level of production. But he's at least worth a flyer for any team in need of a right fielder or designated hitter.

Daniel Hudson already revived his career once.

Between 2010 and 2011, "Huddy" was a starting pitcher with a 3.18 ERA who also batted .277 in the latter year, earning a Silver Slugger award. But after Tommy John surgery in July 2012, he came back in 2014 as a reliever. It took a little while for him to thrive in that role, but he was a key piece of Washington's 2019 World Series run.

Hudson was also one of the many key pieces the Nationals moved at this year's trade deadline, shipping his 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP to a Padres squad hoping he could be the final piece to a championship puzzle once again.

Instead, both he and the Padres imploded. He had a 5.21 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in San Diego. There weren't many high-leverage situations for that team over the final two months, but it didn't seem they were comfortable using him in them anyway.

Now that his two-year, $11 million contract has expired, who will be next to sign the soon-to-be 35-year-old reliever who still has enough gas left in the tank to average 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings over the past two seasons?

I doubt we'll see Huddy back in a closer role in 2022 after he had zero saves in 2021, but he's still good enough to be a well above average seventh-inning option.

Aside from pitching the first six innings of a combined no-hitter in June, Zach Davies was one of the biggest busts of the 2021 season.

After posting a 2.73 ERA for the Padres in 2020 and subsequently relocating to Chicago in the Yu Darvish trade, Davies couldn't find the strike zone with the Cubs. He walked at least three batters in nearly half of his starts (14 of 32), posting a walk rate of 4.6 per 9.0 innings pitched—significantly worse than his 2.6 rate from 2015-20.

His rate of home runs allowed was also higher than usual (1.5 per 9 IP), and factoring in all the extra base runners from walks, his ERA ballooned to 5.78. He was OK in the middle of the season, but he had a 9.47 ERA in April and a 15.32 ERA in September.

Rough start; rougher finish. But the 28-year-old should benefit from a change of scenery.

Through his first six seasons, Davies never had a WHIP worse than 1.354 and only once had an ERA north of 4.00. He has not yet made an All-Star roster nor received Cy Young votes, but he was a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter up until this past year.

His durability certainly won't hurt his marketability. Davies has started 149 games since the beginning of 2016, and it's actually 162 if you count his 13 starts in the minors. Only Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin have made more than 162 starts during that time.

Plenty of teams will be interested here, but especially the Los Angeles Angels, who are in dire need of an experienced starting pitcher or two. Wherever he lands, he could turn his career around in a big way if he can get those walks under control.