Best NFL Futures Bets Heading into Week 6 of the 2021 NFL Season

You may or may not have placed some futures bets prior to the start of the 2021 NFL season, and those bets may or may not already be dead in the water. 

If they are, hopefully you set aside a few bucks to responsibly roll some more dice at some point this season. Week 6 is somewhat of a sweet spot for that.

We now have a better feel for how the campaign might play out based on 81 games' worth of regular-season action. But it's still early enough to land some tremendous value on teams or players you believe can exceed expectations between now and Super Bowl Sunday. 

With that in mind, here are several futures bets that stand out heading into Week 6.

Odds are from DraftKings as of Thursday, Oct. 15, at noon ET.

The NFL's only 5-0 team has worse Super Bowl odds than six franchises, including the 2-3 Kansas City Chiefs.

The Arizona Cardinals shouldn't necessarily be viewed as the Super Bowl favorite. Five games is a relatively small sample, and they're only 18-18-1 in the Kyler Murray/Kliff Kingsbury era.

But it's entirely possible that this is their time. Don't they feel a little bit like the Chiefs of a few years ago?

The Cardinals are the league's third-best team in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders, and they have a deadly combination of accomplished talent and upside. 

Arizona is stuck in one of the league's toughest divisions, which contributes to that +1400 number. But the Cardinals handily defeated the Rams on the road two weeks ago, yet Los Angeles is currently +800 to win Super Bowl LVI. 

The NFL's leader in QBR and touchdown passes has worse MVP odds than eight other players, including a sophomore and a 44-year-old.

With the Chiefs at 2-3, it's easy to understand why Patrick Mahomes shouldn't be considered one of the league's most valuable players right now. But a level of projection is involved in setting these numbers, and it's shocking to see +1800 odds for a player who won the award in 2018 and was a prime MVP candidate in 2019 and 2020.

It isn't as though Mahomes has been bad this season. The 26-year-old leads the league in both touchdown passes (16) and QBR (75.0) heading into Week 6, and the Chiefs offense ranks fifth in points per game. 

He and the Chiefs deserve the benefit of the doubt. They'll likely turn their season around, and if/when that happens, you'll have trouble grabbing Mahomes above +1000 for MVP.

Much like with the Cardinals, there's understandable skepticism that Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs will be able to sustain the pace that has made him the NFL's most valuable defensive player so far this season. 

The 23-year-old wasn't on the Defensive Player of the Year radar before he intercepted six passes in the first five games of the 2021 season. That puts him on a record-breaking pace, and it isn't as though he's just been ball-hawking. Diggs also leads all qualified corners with an opposing passer rating of only 29.2. 

It's rare for cornerbacks to win this award, although Stephon Gilmore did so with the New England Patriots two years ago, so it isn't out of the question. Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard also finished third in voting for the award last season with 10 interceptions.

If Diggs can keep killing it in coverage and intercept more than 10 passes, he'll have a good shot here. However, both Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald have far better odds than him right now. 

There's little doubt that Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is leading the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. He caught 23 passes for 456 yards and five touchdowns in Cincinnati's first five games.

However, it's surprising that quarterbacks Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and Trey Lance also have better OROY odds than Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris.

Chase could still hit a rookie wall, and the injury factor is always unfortunately in play. Meanwhile, none of those quarterbacks have done much to indicate that they'll have strong rookie campaigns.

Jones has been babied, Lawrence is one of the league's lowest-rated starting quarterbacks in most categories, and both Fields and Lance are works in progress. The latter hasn't even been named his team's starter moving forward as of yet.

Harris got off to a slow start, but he's found his footing with 233 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns over the last two weeks. He's averaged 4.8 yards per carry during that stretch, and if he can keep building on that, he'll likely be in the mix for Offensive Rookie of the Year come December and January. 

Four running backs have won this award in the last eight years, while a wide receiver hasn't won it since 2009. That makes Harris a steal at +1000.

Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons has a clear early advantage in the Defensive Rookie of the Year race. But you always want to watch for edge defenders who could wind up with a number of splash plays like sacks and forced fumbles. 

Those stats hit harder than tackles and intangible impact, so if Odafe Oweh of the Baltimore Ravens or Azeez Ojulari of the New York Giants can go on a big run in the coming months, either could overtake Parsons. 

Six rookies have better DROY odds than Oweh, who has three sacks, two forced fumbles and eight quarterback hits but sits at +1400 right now. Ojulari pays even better at +1600 and is also in the mix with three sacks thus far, but he has only three quarterback hits beyond that and one forced fumble. 

Edge defenders have won this award in three of the last five years. Don't count Oweh out, especially with that much juice. 

Nine quarterbacks have thrown for more yards this season than Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. As a result, a handful now have better odds than him to lead the league in passing yards this season.

But the Cowboys have been winning, and they're unlikely to keep doing so at their current rate (.800). When they trail more, Prescott will throw more.

Once that happens, expect him to catch up to the top of the field in this category.

Prescott was 399 yards behind Tom Brady entering Week 6, but Brady has topped the league in passing yards only once in the last 13 years. The question of whether the Bucs are asking too much of the 44-year-old Brady is already being asked. 

Prescott is within a hot half of everybody else ahead of him on the passing yardage list. And in the four games before his season-ending ankle injury in 2020, the two-time Pro Bowler led the NFL by a huge margin with 1,690 passing yards. 

You might not consider the Tennessee Titans a prime Super Bowl contender, but they're always in the mix. They've posted five consecutive winning seasons, and they're off to a 3-2 start.

They should be expected to post at least a 10-7 record with reigning Offensive Player of the Year Derrick Henry leading the way this season, so a win total over/under of 9.5 presents a prime opportunity for bettors. 

It's possible you'll get even more value for the Titans after their upcoming stretch against the Buffalo Bills, Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts and Rams, so you could wait this one out a little longer. Regardless, the well-coached, experienced Titans should weather potential storms during that run.

After that, they should have a chance to feast just when Henry usually gains steam. 

The AFC South is soft. The Titans still play the Houston Texans twice and the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. If they take care of business in those outings, then they merely need to go 4-5 in the rest of their games to hit the over here. 

Oddsmakers and the public can't be faulted for lacking trust in Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold. He busted with the New York Jets and has now thrown five interceptions in two games after a promising start to his career in Carolina. 

That might explain why the Panthers are still paying +250 to make the playoffs even though they have the fifth-best scoring margin and are tied for the sixth-best record in the NFC.

Darnold isn't trustworthy, but he's had his moments. Meanwhile, his defense has surrendered only 17.4 points per game, and he hasn't had superstar running back Christian McCaffrey at his disposal for the past few weeks.

But McCaffrey has a chance to return in Week 6, and the Panthers have a decent shot at beating the Minnesota Vikings at home to move to 4-2. They also very well could be favored the next two weeks against the New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons. 

The Panthers might not be a Super Bowl contender, but they have a clear path to capture one of the seven playoff spots in the NFC. 

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21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN/MI only. Odds and lines subject to change. Eligibility restrictions apply. See DraftKings.com/Sportsbook for full terms and conditions.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. He specializes in the pro football betting market. Follow him on Twitter: @Brad_Gagnon.