Predicting the NBA's Best Defender at Every Position Ahead of 2021-22

Even in this NBA age of advanced analytics, great defense remains hard to define.

A number of catch-all stat categories have emerged, but none paints a complete picture.

There's still a "you know it when you see it" element with superb stopping, so the eye test can and should play a prominent role in defensive debates. When the eye test and analytics align with one another, that's the best way to know you're probably looking at one of the league's best in the point-prevention department.

That's why we followed the process of weighing statistics (both traditional and advanced) with our own observations and projections to predict the top stoppers at each position for the upcoming campaign.

Don't hold Ben Simmons' lack of a jumper or uncertain future against him. Not in this discussion, at least.

When it comes to the game's less glamorous end, Simmons is no less than a superstar. He has the body to bang with bigs (6'11", 240 lbs), the quickness to keep in front of guards and the tenacity to check any player in between. He is a true five-position stopper, so wherever the Sixers (or his next NBA employer) need him, he'll go and silence scorers of all sizes and skill sets.

BBall Index graded Simmons as the fifth-most versatile defender last season, spending at least 10 percent of his minutes defending each position. Among the 10 most versatile defenders (minimum 500 minutes), Simmons was the only one to also land in the top 40 of defensive real plus-minus, where he landed 31st overall.

"He guards every position," Sixers skipper Doc Rivers said in March (h/t NBC Sports). "And he makes such a difference. And not just at the rim. It's everywhere. He literally at times swallows players. And I've not seen that."

There are other shutdown stoppers at this position. Jrue Holiday is a menace on defense. Chris Paul knows what opponents are doing before they do. Dejounte Murray is a nightmare for opposing ball-handlers.

However, none can match the versatility of Simmons, an All-Defensive first-teamer each of the past two seasons. He might have to cover more ground than ever depending on where he lands, but it won't change his spot atop the point guard position's defensive pecking order.

Some defenders make their mark with ferocious on-ball defense. Others are havoc-makers away from it.

Matisse Thybulle masterfully checks both boxes, which has quickly made the 6'5" swingman an analytical favorite.

He hits marks that are often only reachable for bigs

Seven players had a defensive RAPTOR of plus-4 or better last season; Thybulle was the only non-center in the group. Eight qualified defenders knocked at least 5.5 points off of their matchup's normal field-goal percentage; Thybulle was the only one who didn't primarily play the 4 or 5. No one at any position bested his 4.3 defensive box plus-minus, and the four other players who tallied 3.0-plus were 4s and 5s.

As a chaos-creator, Thybulle is unrivaled not just by his peers, but by anyone who has stepped inside the lines. He's the only player ever to log at least 500 minutes and have career block and steal percentages of at least 3.5 (4.0 and 3.7, respectively). Just 10 other players have cleared 2.5 in each category.

This is where it's worth mentioning Thybulle is all of 130 games into his NBA existence. In other words, we almost certainly haven't seen his best yet, and there's a chance we haven't glimpsed anything close to it.

The combination of production and potential is enough to separate him from other off-guard stoppers like Luguentz Dort, PJ Dozier, De'Anthony Melton and Josh Okogie.

Given how many lethal scoring threats reside on the wing, it's no surprise there are an abundance of top-tier defenders at this position.

This might be the year that OG Anunoby makes good on the Kawhi Leonard comparisons that predate his NBA career. Mikal Bridges boasts impossibly long arms and knows how to use them. Paul George hasn't lost a step during a decade-plus of defending the elites. When LeBron James can expend the energy, he's still a dominant source of on-ball stopping and off-ball playmaking.

Yet, five-time All-Defensive honoree Jimmy Butler stands out in this crowded field for his physical tools, insatiable energy and innate ability to know when risky plays are worth it.

"He has some very disciplined games," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said of last season's steals leader, per Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. "I know that's counterintuitive. But I've coached players that would totally take themselves out of a play. Jimmy is a very disciplined team defender."

The numbers agree. Butler, who tied for third with 3.5 deflections per contest last season, made Miami's defense 6.1 points stingier per 100 possessions than it was without him. He also ranked fourth among qualified stoppers with a 2.5 defensive box plus-minus and landed sixth among wings in Defensive RAPTOR.

His strength allows him to hang with bigger forwards, and his quickness keeps him up with speedster guards. He doesn't miss rotations and still has the instincts of knowing when and where he can freelance to force turnovers.

At some point, his age (32) and mileage under former coach Tom Thibodeau (Butler averaged 38.7 minutes a night during his two seasons in Chicago as a starter for Thibs) might catch up to him, but Butler should be good to pace this position in this possibly Leonard-less campaign.

All due respect to the other point-preventing power forwards, but this is a two-player discussion: Giannis Antetokounmpo versus Draymond Green.

It's the kind of debate that simultaneously feels like you can't get it wrong or right. Each has a Defensive Player of the Year award on his resume. Both are the first names mentioned when opposing teams strategize their offense. Each one can harass a ball-handler, erase a shot at the rim, plug up passing lanes or devour the glass.

Last season, the numbers all pointed toward Green: defensive box plus minus (3.3 to 2.6), defensive real plus-minus (1.68 to 1.20), defensive RAPTOR (plus-3.5 to plus-2.3), defensive win shares (3.4 to 3.3). That's why he took third in DPOY voting, and Antetokounmpo had to settle for fifth.

So, why go with the Greek Freak? Because we're projecting forward not looking back, and since all of those categories were close, it's easier to bet on the younger (26 to 31), more athletic Antetokounmpo closing the gap and surpassing Green during the upcoming campaign.

Green might have the sharper defensive mind, but Antetokounmpo might have the best physical tools in the business.

Players aren't supposed to have his combination of size, length, mobility, strength, speed and explosion. The fact he also expends energy like he's fighting for the final roster spot—Antetokounmpo traveled the eighth-most miles on defense among players 6'10" or taller despite missing 11 games—just adds to the matchup problems he presents.

This should be a great debate, because the center position is overloaded with dominant defenders.

Joel Embiid is hyperactive at the rim and nimble away from it. Bam Adebayo has yet to meet a perimeter switch he can't cover. Folks in the Circle City are still counting all of the blocks Myles Turner recorded last season. If Clint Capela isn't the NBA's most underappreciated stopper, then Jakob Poeltl wears the label.

And yet, there's no debate at all, because center is the position Rudy Gobert plays, and no one in the entire league can match his credentials.

The 29-year-old is already one of only four players to win Defensive Player of the Year three times, and the absence of any slippage on that end suggests he'll have a chance to become the first player ever to win more than four.

"He's in the middle of the prime of his career," Tony Jones wrote for The Athletic. "He stays in excellent shape. He can run the floor like a deer and he's relentless on both ends. He can certainly stay at this level for the next [two to three] years, health permitting. And that should make him a DPOY candidate every season."

Last season, Gobert dominated both traditional and advanced stat categories. He led the league in total boards and blocks, while enjoying sizable leads in defensive RAPTOR, defensive real plus-minus and defensive win shares.

While the position isn't short on stoppers, Gobert would need to suffer some significant regression for anyone to catch him.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference , ESPN, BBall-Index and Stathead unless otherwise noted.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.