Fantasy Football 2021: Stock Up, Stock Down Heading into Late Drafts

Sometimes the best fantasy football plans unfold in last-second drafts.

Fantasy managers in leagues that wait until the buzzer to hold a draft have the advantage of seeing leaguewide updates, average draft position (ADP) trends, injuries and positional battles before making decisions that will impact them all year.

One could argue the past week offers more impactful yearlong fantasy updates than any other. Teams made final cuts after showing their hand in preseason finales, albeit briefly and in vanilla fashion, and updates from practices have peppered the news cycle.

Looking at these updates and weighing them with ADP data from 12-team leagues, these are stock movers that managers should know going into late drafts.

Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins was a hot breakout pick and drafted as such in fantasy leagues. Anyone dishing advice on Dobbins, though, surely suggested handcuffing his selection with backup Gus Edwards.

Dobbins' season-ending injury in his team's preseason finale shines the spotlight on Edwards.

Even since the start of September, Edwards only has an ADP of 5.07, making him the 28th running back off the board. That's wild considering Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman admitted Edwards is on the way to a major role.

Edwards scored six rushing touchdowns on 144 attempts last year. While that was a career high in carries, it's hard not to get excited about a guy who averages 5.2 yards per carry and looks set to grab a workhorse load. Undrafted sophomore Ty'Son Williams provides little competition.

Any ideas of a Michael Carter breakout for the New York Jets might have to go on hold.

Carter, a fourth-round rookie, looked like an incredible value for the Jets who would outpace names like Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson and La'Mical Perine.

But preseason usage suggests otherwise. In the team's second preseason game, Carter gained 52 yards on 10 carries but landed behind Coleman and Johnson in the pecking order. In the preseason finale, he ran seven times for 12 yards while splitting time with Johnson as the team held Coleman out before the season opener.

It's something to keep in mind for a back with a 7.08 ADP (35th RB). The Athletic's Connor Hughes says to look at the 2019 San Francisco 49ers as a blueprint for Jets running backs. None of the three in the Niners rotation rushed for 800 yards.

A breakout pick who underperforms because of a coaching approach isn't new for managers. Carter could be the latest example.

Breakouts from Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert last year showed fantasy managers not to sleep on rookie passers.

Another got added to the noteworthy pool after the New England Patriots crowned first-rounder Mac Jones the starter and released Cam Newton.

Jones, who looked good in New England's preseason finale with 156 yards and a touchdown on a 10-of-14 line, has an ADP of 14.02, making him the 26th and final quarterback listed on the chart.

Odds seem solid Jones can outplay that ADP as a full-time starter. He'll get to work with the usual army of pass-catching backs in Foxborough, plus Nelson Agholor at wideout and Jonnu Smith at tight end, among others.

Newton needed 12 rushing scores last year to prop up his production, which otherwise featured eight passing scores. Jones should provide a more traditional, even approach worth rostering and tossing in the lineup given the right matchups.

"Steady" comes to mind with Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.

A year ago, he was again a top-10 scorer at his position thanks to 979 yards and six rushing scores with 52 catches over 15 games. But as fantasy managers know, things can change in a hurry for running backs.

Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy hinted this offseason that Elliott could see less work early in the season to keep him fresh for a playoff push. That means more looks for capable backups like Tony Pollard (who averages 4.8 yards per carry for his career).

Don't forget the return of Dak Prescott, which could mean a more pass-oriented attack. Also don't rule out early injury news that has offensive lineman Zack Martin out for Week 1 after testing positive for COVID-19, while right tackle La'el Collins is dealing with a neck injury with an unknown return date. The line has had little cohesion this summer, which isn't improving as the season looms.

That hasn't stopped managers from making Elliott the fifth back off the boards on the ADP charts, but he appears to be on a downward trend.

A third-round wideout isn't the first thing that comes to mind for fantasy managers during drafts. Neither are the Houston Texans given the state of their rebuild and how miserable the offense could be.

But a rookie with breakout upside who's about to get major attention in the passing game is worth a look, which brings the focus to Nico Collins.

Collins, this year's 89th pick, averaged 17.8 yards per catch over three seasons at Michigan. He took the lion's share of the snaps in Houston's preseason finale over Chris Conley and is expected to have that role during the regular season.

Collins will get plenty of looks alongside or rotating with Brandin Cooks and Anthony Miller. Tyrod Taylor isn't an inspiring fantasy quarterback, but the opportunity should equal production for Collins. Not bad for a guy who doesn't chart on the ADP list that features 68 wide receivers.

It's not a good sign when a big-money acquisition says the offense could start slow.

That's what New York Giants wideout Kenny Golladay did, though. While he's stating the obvious, it's concerning from a fantasy perspective.

Golladay missed a month of practice with a hamstring pull, a red flag after he played just five games last year with the Detroit Lions. It's not the only injury that has impacted the offense's ability to form cohesion, most notably the continued rehab of Saquon Barkley. Quarterback Daniel Jones hasn't inspired either. He threw a pick in the team's preseason finale while struggling behind a shaky offensive line.

Managers are still making Golladay the 32nd wideout off the board, but he's dropping from potential No. 1 to risky third-wideout play from a fantasy slant.