B/R App Community 2021 Fantasy Football Mailbag: Last-Minute Advice from Experts

Can you feel that? That tinge of excitement in the air?

Can you hear that? The cheers of the victorious and wails of the vanquished?

Can you smell that? Sorry. I shouldn't have had Taco Bell for breakfast.

We are less than one week away from the season opener between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers—and with that Thursday night affair comes another season of the dizzying highs and despair-inducing lows that is fantasy football.

For most fantasy managers, there is not much to do now but wait—their teams for 2021 have already been drafted. But there is one more big weekend of drafts still to come, and even if you have drafted, there could be preseason waivers or an early trade offer to consider.

We have been banging out fantasy content like crazy over the last month or so here at Bleacher Report, including a number of mailbag columns answering questions posed by users of the Bleacher Report app.

Those mailbags will continue as a Start/Sit column once the wackiness begins in earnest, but here's one last round of questions and answers for managers who still have some team-building to do.

Is Gus Edwards a good gamble in the middle rounds?—@CryingCar

         

Before this question is addressed, let's observe a moment of silence for all the fantasy teams that were rocked by the ACL tear that ended the 2021 season of Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins. Losing a high draft pick to a season-ending injury is one thing. When it happens before Week 1, that's just brutal.

That injury thrusts fourth-year pro Gus Edwards into the lead role in the Ravens' backfield. Per ESPN's Jamison Hensley, "Gus the Bus" said he's ready to answer the call.

"It's a great opportunity," Edwards said. "It's really unfortunate what happened. My feelings go out to J.K. I know how hard he worked this season. Just to see how hard he's been practicing, it's real unfortunate. I'm ready to do whatever's asked of me. I'm ready to step up."

At first glance, the answer to this question is an easy "yes." Per Hensley, featured running backs have averaged 72 yards rushing per game when playing alongside Lamar Jackson. Edwards has been effective when afforded opportunities in the past, averaging 5.2 yards a pop on 414 career carries. And the Ravens face a favorable rushing schedule with 12 games against bottom-half run defenses.

Edwards' ADP has understandably skyrocketed since Dobbins went down—he's currently coming off draft boards late in Round 5, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.

But given that's after players like Denver's Javonte Williams and Cleveland's Kareem Hunt, who are (ostensibly) on the wrong side of backfield splits, even that increased price looks like a solid value.

Trade Travis Kelce and Parris Campbell for Gus Edwards, Mike Williams and Robert Tonyan?—@freddy0710

      

Many fantasy managers fall into the common trap of thinking that you have to "win" a trade—that you need to get more out of a deal than you give. If you need an RB2 to keep your season afloat, and it will take a WR1 to get a deal done, then it's a trade worth making.

The point isn't to "win" the trade—it's to improve the team.

It's hard to imagine making this deal would do that.

Now, knowing what the rest of the team looks like would help—if, say, the running backs are a complete dumpster fire, then acquiring Edwards becomes a lot more attractive. But assuming that there aren't any gaping holes in the roster, then trading away fantasy's top tight end (by a fair margin) doesn't make a lot of sense.

Yes, you're getting three players for giving two, and Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Parris Campbell is essentially a "throw-in."

But Edwards is regarded in most circles as a mid-range RB2. Tonyan was a top-five tight end in 2020, but his 11 touchdowns on just 59 targets last year isn't a sustainable ratio. Mike Williams has been talked up in camp with the Los Angeles Chargers, but the fifth-year veteran barely cracked the top 50 at his position in PPR points last season.

Thanks, but no thanks.

Is Mac Jones worth starting over Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Ryan?—@E_Ramrod

           

It was a little surprising to see the New England Patriots outright cut veteran quarterbacks Cam Newton (the team's starter in 2020) and Brian Hoyer (who was later re-signed), but it wasn't a shock to see that rookie Mac Jones had been named the team's Week 1 starter. The former Alabama star played well in the preseason, impressing New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

"When you look at the whole body of work since he's gotten here...he's been well-prepared each day to come in and do the things we ask our players to do," McDaniels said of Jones, via Mike Giardi of NFL Network. "He's improved. He's generally taken care of the football."

Jones is a talented, accurate young signal-caller who appears to have a bright future.

But there's still no way fantasy managers should start him over proven options like Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Washington's Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Jones may well be a sizable improvement over Newton as a passer, but the New England offense isn't suddenly going to start throwing the ball 45 times a game. The Patriots are going to run the ball with Damien Harris and toss short passes to tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. The team has one of the weakest wide receiver groups in the league.

Ryan has posted top-12 fantasy production four of the past five years and plays for a bad Falcons team that will have to throw the ball a lot in 2021. Per Mike Tagliere of Fantasy Pros, Fitzpatrick has quietly put up QB1-type numbers in 18 of his last 37 starts, and he has the best supporting cast of his career in Washington.

Jones has some appeal in superflex and two-QB fantasy leagues, but in formats with just one weekly starter, it's going to be a while before he's fantasy-relevant.

Tyreek Hill, [Stefon] Diggs, [Austin] Ekeler or [Saquon] Barkley? .5 PPR. My keeper is [Alvin] Kamara. I have first pick and have narrowed it down to those four.—@leno142001

             

Having the first pick with New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara already rostered is a good problem to have. With that said, you also need to hit on that first pick, as it will be a while before No. 2 rolls around.

For that reason, New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley is out. It's not that Barkley isn't capable of big-time production—if he's healthy, Barkley could finish inside the top-five. But the fourth-year pro has barely practiced as he works his way back from an ACL tear, and the Giants woeful offensive line doesn't appear to be one bit better in 2021 than it was a year ago.

That leaves two potential directions here. The first is taking an elite wide receiver in Tyreek Hill of the Kansas City Chiefs or Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills. The pair posted an almost identical number of PPR fantasy points last season, but knock half a point off each catch, and Diggs loses enough luster to make Hill the preferred option.

The other possibility is paring Kamara with another pass-catching back in Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers. The fifth-year pro loses some value without a full point for receptions, but Ekeler was still a top-15 back in .5 PPR points per game in 2020.

The safer play is RB/RB—especially if most of the other managers in your league kept running backs. However, if you're confident you can land a decent second starter on the 2/3 turn, then building the team around a top-five back and a top-five wideout is the way to go.

Who's the starting RB for the Jets?—@bradsoos

            

In fantasy football, any running back with a pulse and a semi-regular workload has value. If you need proof of that reality, look no further than managers sifting through the mess that is the New York Jets backfield. 

Make no mistake—it is a full-blown committee. As Tyler Greenawalt wrote for the Jets website, head coach Robert Saleh made it clear that veteran Tevin Coleman, rookie Michael Carter and third-year pro Ty Johnson will all see significant work in 2021.

"I do think when you come at them in waves it's a lot harder on a defense," Saleh said. "You never want to force the issue. You want to share the load and give those guys more of a chance to have longevity in their careers because feeding them the ball that much can also be a negative."

"Each back has a unique trait," Saleh added, "and being able to find a role for them is going to be what's fun throughout this process."

Barring an injury, it's unlikely that Johnson will see enough work to have value outside the deepest of formats. Coleman has shown he can produce in a Kyle Shanahan-esque offense, piling up over 1,000 total yards with Atlanta in 2018, but he averaged less than two yards a carry last year and missed half the 2020 campaign. Carter is the most explosive back of the group and was a trendy breakout pick in early drafts, but to date, he hasn't been able to unseat Coleman as the nominal starter.

As the No. 1 back (albeit not by much), Coleman has the most early-season value. Between his durability issues and Carter's talent, though, it's fair to question how long it will be until the rookie takes over.

Of course, it's also fair to question how often a Jets team that won two games in 2020 will fall behind and abandon the run altogether, so none of these backs are better than a late-round dart throw.

What round would you consider drafting Michael Thomas knowing he has that foot injury?—@kayner322

                 

Each August, I participate in the King's Classic fantasy drafts at the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio. There are two drafts (one snake and one auction) featuring some of the biggest names in fantasy football.

As it happens, I drafted New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas in both formats in 2021. In the auction, I paid $8 (of a $200 budget). In the snake, I drafted Thomas with the fifth pick of the eighth round in a 14-teamer—pick No. 103 overall.

At the time, I thought both picks were decent values given Thomas' upside. Two years ago, the sixth-year veteran set a single-season NFL record with 149 catches, topping 1,700 yards and finishing as fantasy's top wideout.

However, much of the shine has come off that "value" now. With Thomas set to open the regular season on the PUP list after ankle surgery in June, he'll miss at least the first six weeks of the regular season.

That's a big chunk of the fantasy football regular season.

Also, while Thomas tore up the NFL two seasons ago, last year was a mess—he managed just 40 catches for 438 yards without a touchdown over seven games thanks to the same ankle that has his 2021 season off to such a poor start. There's no guarantee that once Thomas is back, fantasy managers will get the 2019 version and not the 2020 one.

At this point, it would have to be the double-digit rounds before I'd consider drafting Thomas, and even then, only if there's a deep bench or

an IR slot he can be stashed in

Otherwise, he's best left to be someone else's problem.

Dynasty trade superflex PPR. Trade Aaron Rodgers, Christian McCaffrey and a 2022 second-round pick for Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley and a 2022 first-rounder. Which side of the trade y'all got?—@ku2

           

This is a very interesting (and balanced) trade offer.

On one side, you have the reigning NFL MVP, the most valuable player in fantasy football and a Round 2 pick in next year's rookie draft. On the other, you have the 2019 MVP, a potential top-five back and a first in 2022.

It's also worth noting that the manager who posited this query also has D'Andre Swift of the Detroit Lions, Cam Akers of the Los Angeles Rams and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers rostered.

An important consideration here is how you view your team's chances at contending for a championship in 2021. In the short-term, the Rodgers side of this trade is appealing—he's a top-10 signal-caller, and McCaffrey was the first overall pick in the vast majority of redraft leagues in 2021.

However, take a longer-term view, and the paradigm shifts. Jackson is arguably an even better fantasy quarterback (given the high floor his rushing yards offer) who is well over a decade younger than Rodgers. Barkley has considerable upside of his own if healthy and is slightly younger than McCaffrey. And you're getting a better rookie pick out of the deal—a pick that could, in theory, be packaged with your own first-rounder to move up for an elite prospect next year.

It's close, but in this format, I would be willing to take the hit at RB to get better and younger at QB and move up in the draft.

If the Panthers lean on McCaffrey anywhere near as heavily in 2021 as they did in giving him a jaw-dropping 403 total touches in 2019, the fifth-year pro is going to break down.

Besides, having Swift, Akers and Barkley all on the same team will make every week's injury report an edge-of-your-seat thriller.

Which RB would you take with the No. 4 pick? .5 PPR.—@pcantu1230

            

OK, to make the call here, it would help to know who the third overall pick is/was. So what we'll do is back it up one, and I will rank the running backs following Christian McCaffrey of the Panthers and Dalvin Cook of the Vikings, who are almost always the first two picks in fantasy drafts.

         

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL: I'm fully aware that I am higher on Elliott than most fantasy pundits after his disappointing 2020 campaign. But all the ingredients are there for a substantial rebound in 2021—Elliott looks to be in fantastic shape, the Dallas O-line is healthier, and the return of Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' potent passing attack will help keep opposing defenses honest.

         

Derrick Henry, TEN: Henry is a monster between the tackles and has led the league in rushing the past two years, but there are a couple of reasons for concern here. The first is his heavy workload the past two years—a workload that included 681 regular-season carries. The second is the significant drop in production that every single back to ever rush for 2,000 yards has experienced.

            

Alvin Kamara, NOS: Like Henry, Kamara is coming off a massive season, catching a career-high 83 passes and posting a ridiculous 21 total touchdowns. But that touchdown total is all but certainly going to drop considerably this season, and now Kamara is playing with a quarterback in Jameis Winston, who historically hasn't thrown much to his running backs.

With this week's mailbag butting up so close against the kickoff of Week 1, I figured there would be a bunch of Start/Sit questions submitted.

I was not disappointed.

Where the rest of the mailbag is concerned, I chose to steer clear of those, although there will be another mailbag next week before the Cowboys and Buccaneers get things started. But now that it's time for the final preseason edition of Rapid Fire, we'll throw some in here.

I know. I'm a swell guy.

               

Chase Claypool or Antonio Brown as flex Week 1? Full PPR.—@tk_

This is a pretty close call—Steelers/Bills and Cowboys/Buccaneers are both games that could easily become high-scoring affairs. It comes down to tolerance for risk. If you want a higher floor, Brown is the play—he was a bigger part of the Tampa offense than many realize last year. The higher-upside play (and better bet to find the end zone) is Claypool, so he would be my choice.

          

Pick 1 to draft in 12-team PPR. 3 WR. Jarvis Landry, Antonio Brown, Henry Ruggs III, Zack Moss, Melvin Gordon III, Michael Carter, Javonte Williams.—@leftyval15

This is a hard question to answer without knowing what the rest of your roster looks like. If you think a wide receiver is the play, then Brown is the pass-catcher to target—he should be a solid third starter for fantasy managers in 2021. If you're looking for a running back, I'd favor Moss ever so slightly over Williams, if only because he's the best bet to stay on the right side of the carry-share in Buffalo.

             

Antonio Gibson or Austin Ekeler in a full PPR dynasty?—@noahquesnelle

Y'all are coming with the hard questions this week! There is absolutely a plausible scenario for Gibson emerging as the better back in the long-term in Washington—especially if he earns more passing-down work moving forward. But we've already seen what a back with Ekeler's receiving ability can do in a Joe Lombardi offense, and that upside is just too appealing in a PPR format.

            

JuJu Smith-Schuster and David Montgomery for Derrick Henry?—@BallinLikeCurryy

With third-down back Tarik Cohen opening the season on the PUP list, Montgomery's fantasy value gets a boost, though Damien Williams will siphon away at least some touches. But even after Montgomery's top-10 2020 campaign, the only way I'm giving up Henry in this deal is if my wide receivers are a complete disaster.

               

Bench wide receiver, Jamison Crowder from the Jets or Hunter Renfrow from the Raiders?—@jb6395

Um, is there another option? Anyone? Bueller? Kidding aside, with Elijah Moore battling a quad injury throughout training camp and the Jets likely to be playing from behind often, Crowder should have more early-season fantasy value. That value is likely to come with an expiration date, so be ready to hit the waiver wire again in a few weeks.

                  

Took Tyrell Williams with my last pick in a PPR league. He's the No. 1 wide receiver, although it is the Lions. Points are points, right?

Long answer short, right. Williams isn't a world-beater, he has had issues staying on the field, and a second career 1,000-yard season isn't especially likely. However, there should be no shortage of garbage time fantasy points to be had in lopsided games in Motown this year, so Williams is absolutely worth a late dart throw as a depth receiver.

               

Week 1 RB2 and Flex? Nick Chubb, Myles Gaskin and Hollywood Brown. —@asap_roddyyy

Provided that Chubb's legs remain attached to his body, the Browns bruiser should always be in the starting lineup (except his bye week, of course). Gaskin doesn't have a great Week 1 matchup with the rival New England Patriots, but he's still a much safer Week 1 play than a hot-and-cold vertical receiver for a run-first team like Brown.

                    

ADP data of Fantasy Football Calculator.

Scoring data courtesy of My Fantasy League.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.