It's been two years since the last NCAA men's basketball tournament.
There's a lot to love about the usually annual event that was canceled last year because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The buzzer-beaters, the memorable single-game performances and magical runs are some examples, but one of the best things is the near-guarantee there will be upsets that break brackets all over the place.
After months of watching these teams play and evaluating them, the selection committee has the unenviable task of putting together a seeded 68-team bracket. It only takes 40 minutes for those rankings and analysis to come undone, though.
With the 2021 bracket set, we can begin parsing through each region looking for the best upset picks. According to Andy Wittry of NCAA.com, there is an average of 12.2 upsets in the tournament every year. So while you don't want to go wild picking a ton when filling out your bracket, a healthy amount of forecasted madness is good.
Here's a breakdown of the strongest candidate for an upset in each region.
The 12-seed over five-seed upset pick has become a popular strategy. It happens at least once nearly every year and happened in three of the four regions in 2019.
The odds are stacked against that happening two tournaments in a row from a statistical standpoint, but there's a lot to like about Santa Barbara in this spot. They started the season 4-3 before rattling off 18 wins in their next 19.
There is the question of whether the Gauchos' schedule has prepared them for the tournament. Playing in the Big West, they haven't seen too many quality opponents. But they can only play the opponents put in front of them, and they've beaten them with a balanced effort on both ends of the court.
They are 69th overall in KenPom.com's rankings, which is significant. As Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report noted, only three teams have been ranked in KenPom's top 75. The first two pulled off upsets in the first round.
Creighton hasn't done much to inspire confidence against inferior opponents this season. They've lost games to non-tourney teams in Marquette, Butler, Providence and Xavier. They also lost twice to Georgetown, including the Big East championship game.
The Hoyas are also a No. 12 seed, so Creighton losing to the Gauchos wouldn't be all that surprising.
This one is based less on anything Michigan State or UCLA has done and more on two things: the recent performances from 11th-seeded teams coming out of the First Four games and BYU's vulnerabilities.
In breaking down some interesting upset picks, Peter Keating of The Athletic identified an interesting trend in regards to No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchups in general. Since 2010, 11-seeds are 21-19 against six-seeds. That coincides with the introduction of the First Four play-in games.
Previous teams to come from the First Four to make a run in the tournament include Virginia Commonwealth in 2011, Tennessee in 2014 and Syracuse in 2018.
Both the Spartans and the Bruins bring interesting threats to the table.
Michigan State has a star in Aaron Henry and a season of playing in the toughest conference in the country. It's no mistake that nine Big 10 teams made the tournament.
UCLA is 26th in offensive efficiency and is hitting threes at a 36.7 percent clip.
Keating's statistical analysis found the most vulnerable teams and BYU came in at No. 2 on the list. The Cougars rarely force turnovers (319th in the nation) and don't get to the line (270th in free-throw rate).
That could be the recipe for a first-round upset if either team gets into a rhythm with an early game in Indianapolis.
Double-digit seeds usually do one or two things really well that create a wide range of outcomes. They are either extremely proficient from three-point range or they crash the offensive boards.
Winthrop is a mediocre three-point shooting team (35.3 percent) but few teams crash the offensive glass quite as hard as the Eagles. They rank 12th in offensive rebound percentage.
They don't just rely on one star player, either. They have a veteran cast that features four players who average more than 10 points per game.
More importantly, the Villanova team that is playing in the tourney isn't the same one that was the regular-season Big East champion. They've lost Collin Gillespie for the season and ended the year by losing three out of their last four games.
Like Creighton, they ended their conference tournament with a loss to Georgetown, and the Hoyas are another 12 seed. Villanova is just an average rebounding team and doesn't have the same offensive firepower without Gillespie, so they are ripe for the picking.
Winthrop hasn't really played anyone of merit this season, but if they're willing to rise to the challenge, this is the most likely upset in the region.
Since 2009, Jim Boeheim has only been one-and-done in the tournament once. Granted, that was last season, but it isn't often that the Orange don't win at least one tournament game.
The Orange's vaunted 2-3 zone is always tough to beat around tournament time. While the Aztecs are a strong defensive team, they aren't anything special on the offensive end. They rank 44th in offensive efficiency.
The Orange, on the other hand, are a strong offensive team. Especially with Buddy Boeheim playing really well of late. He scored 58 points in two ACC tournament games. He anchors an offense that was 22nd in efficiency.
San Diego State is a strong team. There aren't a ton of holes to poke, and they profile well as a tournament team.
However, Syracuse brings a lot to the table and has a star who is in top form in Boeheim.