Sleeper Pick for Every Major Men's 2021 College Basketball Conference Tournament

The 8-15 Kentucky Wildcats have been asleep at the wheel for just about the entire 2020-21 college basketball season, but could they be one of the teams that wakes up and catches fire at the perfect time?

In recent years, sleepers have fared surprisingly well in major-conference tournaments.

In 2017, No. 5 seed Duke won the ACC tournament, No. 8 seed Michigan won the Big Ten tournament and No. 6 seed Creighton made it to the Big East championship.

In 2018, No. 5 seed Michigan won the Big Ten tournament, No. 5 seed Providence made it to the Big East championship and No. 6 seed North Carolina made it to the ACC championship.

In 2019, No. 5 seed Iowa State won the Big 12 tournament, No. 5 seed Auburn won the SEC tournament and No. 6 seed Oregon won the Pac-12 tournament.

That's three straight years in which half of the major conferences had a No. 5 seed or worse at least reach the league championship, six of whom won the title.

In each of the projected multi-bid conferences, we've pinpointed the most likely candidate to pull off multiple upsets on consecutive days in the coming week.

Sleeper Pick: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

The real question in the ACC is: What even counts as a sleeper pick when the third-best through ninth-best teams in the conference are entirely interchangeable? Can Duke or North Carolina really be considered a sleeper here? 

Assuming everyone other than Florida State and Virginia counts, North Carolina is probably the best pick. That highly touted freshman class took some time to develop, but the combination of Day'Ron Sharpe, Walker Kessler and Kerwin Walton could bust brackets, both in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

However, I'm going to make a judgment call that, despite their poor records, neither Duke nor North Carolina counts as a sleeper. And of the remaining options, Georgia Tech is the most likely to pull off a surprise title.

The Yellow Jackets have been on fire as of late, closing the regular season on a six-game winning streak. They also previously won a home game against Florida State and led in the final 10 minutes of both games against Virginia before letting those slip away.

Senior big man Moses Wright is the most valuable/dominant player in the conference, and though Jose Alvarado has struggled and looked a bit banged up as of late, the senior point guard is a great perimeter defender who has averaged at least 12 points per game in each of his four seasons at Georgia Tech.

They aren't quite on the same level as Illinois' Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu, but if you think there are 10 better inside-outside duos in the country than this, you should occasionally watch a Georgia Tech game. The Yellow Jackets are going to be a major nuisance to eliminate.

Sleeper Pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders

While the ACC has about eight viable sleeper picks, the Big 12 has none. The top seven teams in the league are all ranked in the AP Top 18, and I cannot in good faith try to tell you that TCU, Kansas State or Iowa State is a real candidate to win four games in four days in this conference.

But as the projected No. 7 seed, Texas Tech would need to play one more game than the rest of the Big 12's top tier. Even though it is extremely unlikely the Red Raiders would lose that opener against Iowa State, that extra game does make them the longest shot of the bunch.

What also makes Texas Tech a long shot is its poor success rate against the rest of the league. The Red Raiders swept Oklahoma and Texas, but they were swept by Kansas, Oklahoma State and West Virginia. They also lost their home game against Baylor and will likely lose the road game against the Bears on Sunday.

This team never gets blown out, though.

If we can agree that an overtime loss should count as a one-point game, the average margin of Texas Tech's seven Big 12 losses was 4.1 points. The biggest "blowout" of the bunch was the 82-71 game against West Virginia, which was a two-point game with 80 seconds remaining before the Mountaineers made 11 late free throws.

The Big 12 tournament has been Texas Tech's nemesis, though. Chris Beard has a career 1-3 record in this event, and the Red Raiders have only once played in a Big 12 championship game (2005). However, Mac McClung and Co. couldn't care less about that history lesson. This team is capable of getting hot and beating anyone.

Sleeper Pick: Georgetown Hoyas

For Georgetown to win this tournament, it would need to win four consecutive games. That is a level of consistent success that has eluded the Hoyas all season. Heck, they have not yet managed to put together so much as a three-game winning streak.

But this is a tough team to beat, particularly as of late.

In the past six weeks, Georgetown is 6-3 overall. During that stretch, it won at Creighton, and it scored home wins over Seton Hall and Xavier—a pair of bubble teams trying (and failing) to prove they belong in the NCAA tournament field.

The biggest reason for that success has been the play of Chudier Bile.

The Northwestern State transfer averaged just 6.7 points and 4.0 rebounds in his first 10 games of the season, but he has been perhaps Georgetown's most valuable player since the team returned from a January COVID-19 pause. Over his last nine games, he's averaging 14.1 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.4 steals while shooting 45.9 percent from three-point range.

Senior guard Jahvon Blair is still the star, and the Hoyas still have the frontcourt tandem of Jamorko Pickett and Qudus Wahab combining for roughly 25 points and 16 rebounds per game. But Bile has been that proverbial missing link on both ends of the floor.

Georgetown is 7-0 when Bile scores at least 13 points, so if he catches fire next weekend, the Hoyas just might be able to pull off a miracle run.

Sleeper Pick: Maryland Terrapins

From a "Sleeper Potential" perspective, the Big Ten is sort of a hybrid between the ACC and the Big 12. On the Big 12 side of things, there's a crowded top tier (like the Big Ten's Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State and Purdue) that can't be considered sleepers. But on the ACC side of things, there are at least half a dozen teams beyond that top tier who could conceivably win this thing.

That said, the obvious sleeper choice (if there can be such a thing) is Maryland getting hot for a few days as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.

The Terrapins have road wins over Illinois, Wisconsin, Rutgers and—even though it doesn't look like much now, it was impressive at the time—Minnesota. They also won a home game against Purdue, almost won at Purdue and played well in home losses to Michigan and Ohio State.

And prior to the disappointing loss at Northwestern on Wednesday night, Maryland was one of the hottest teams in the country. In less than three weeks' time, the Terrapins went from playing for a spot in the field to playing to improve their spot in the field, and that sudden influx of house money could be the catalyst for a deep run.

Maryland's lack of a true big man / rim-protection presence is more than a little concerning. If they get the No. 6 seed, the Terrapins would theoretically need to go through Luka Garza in the quarterfinals, Kofi Cockburn in the semifinals and Hunter Dickinson in the championship game. That's an awful lot to ask of Donta Scott and Jairus Hamilton. But if you're picking a team outside the top five seeds to win this conference tournament, you can't do better than Maryland.

Sleeper Pick: Stanford Cardinal

For a team that opened the season with an 82-64 neutral-site victory over Alabama, it sure has been a rocky road for Stanford.

Player absences have been a major problem for the Cardinal, though.

Senior point guard Daejon Davis missed 14 games. Junior wing Bryce Wills missed 10 games. Freshman phenom Ziaire Williams played relatively well for the first seven weeks, but then he missed six games and has struggled to regain his form. And star big man Oscar da Silva was unavailable for the final three games of the regular season, all of which were losses.

As a result of the many losses suffered while at less than full strength, Stanford has a lot of work to do in the Pac-12 tournament to make the NCAA tournament. In fact, the Cardinal almost certainly need to win this tournament to play in the big one.

If healthy, that work could be accomplished in a Pac-12 tournament field devoid of teams projected for a No. 4 seed or better in the NCAA tournament.

Oregon has emerged as a somewhat clear favorite to win this conference tournament, but as the projected No. 6 seed, Stanford wouldn't need to deal with the No. 1 seed Ducks until the championship game, if at all. And if it comes down to that matchup, the Cardinal will have the confidence to get it done. They almost beat Oregon a little over a week ago without da Silva.

Sleeper Pick: Kentucky Wildcats

I mean, we have to go there, right?

While we previously decided that Duke or North Carolina wouldn't count as a sleeper pick in the ACC, at least those blue-blood teams are on the bubble.

It has been a horrific year for the 8-15 Wildcats. Barring some unbelievable turnaround in which they win the SEC tournament and a few games in the NCAA tournament, this will be just the second time in program history that they finish below .500 in a season with at least 17 games played. (Kentucky also went 13-19 in 1988-89 before replacing Eddie Sutton with Rick Pitino.)

But Kentucky hasn't been that bad.

Oh, the Wildcats looked awful early in the season in those losses to Richmond and Georgia Tech. But Richmond ranks 13th in the nation in experience, per KenPom. Georgia Tech ranks fourth. And prior to Keion Brooks making his season debut in January, Kentucky was playing without a single person who was on last year's roster.

Since then, the Wildcats have at least been competitive in just about every game. Five of their 15 losses were by a single bucket, and the only blowout loss since Georgia Tech came at the hands of Alabama—which has happened to many a competent team this season.

Kentucky is just 3-12 vs. Quadrant 1, but its average scoring margin in those 15 games is negative-3.7 points.

The Wildcats were top 50 on KenPom a week ago.

I'm not saying they definitely will win the SEC tournament. But I am saying it wouldn't take a drastic transformation for them to make a run at it.

As a projected No. 8 or No. 9 seed, Kentucky would need to get through No. 1 seed Alabama in the quarterfinals. Do that, and then anything is possible.

In addition to the six major conferences, there are several other leagues with a realistic shot at sending multiple teams to the NCAA tournament. Let's also briefly explore some sleeper candidates in those conference tournaments.

American: UCF Knights

UCF has a sub-.500 overall record, but the Knights won a road game against Florida State back in mid-December. And that was before they had really established Louisville transfer Darius Perry as their star player. They could immediately lose to a team like Tulane, or they could knock off Houston to win this tournament.

Atlantic 10: Davidson Wildcats

The A-10 tournament is already down to its final four teams, so this isn't anywhere near as wide open as it was a few days ago. But Davidson has a good chance to win this thing and steal a spot in the field. The Wildcats already beat VCU last Saturday, recently played a pair of good games against St. Bonaventure and darn near upset Texas in November. If they do sneak into the Big Dance, this would be a sneaky good No. 12 seed.

Missouri Valley: Indiana State Sycamores

From a national perspective, the Missouri Valley has been all Drake and Loyola-Chicago, Loyola-Chicago and Drake this season. But Indiana State knocked off Loyola-Chicago in mid-January and entered "Arch Madness" with wins in 10 of its last 12 games. As the No. 4 seed, the Sycamores would draw the Ramblers in the semifinals. Win that one and they could knock off a short-handed Drake the following day.

Mountain West: Nevada Wolf Pack

There are four NCAA tournament candidates from the Mountain West, but five teams could win this thing. The "bonus team," if you will, is projected No. 5 seed Nevada. The Wolf Pack swept Boise State, beat Colorado State on Friday, had two losses at San Diego State by seven total points and almost won at Utah State on Feb. 26. Going through the No. 4, No. 1 and No. 2/3 seed on consecutive days is probably asking too much, but Steve Alford's guys will not be an easy out.

West Coast: BYU Cougars

In any other league, the No. 2 seed is not a sleeper pick. But in the WCC, it's Gonzaga and a bunch of Rip Van Winkles. BYU could shock the world, though. Back in 2017 when the Cougars weren't even that strong of an at-large candidate, they went on the road and defeated then-29-0 Gonzaga. This year's team put up solid fights in both games against Gonzaga but was unable to rally from near-immediate double-digit deficits.