Fallen Preseason Contenders Still Capable of a Deep 2021 March Madness Run

The 2020-21 men's college basketball season has not gone according to plan for a bunch of the preseason contenders, but several that have fallen by the wayside could still make a significant run in the NCAA tournament—provided they get in at all.

How would one define a "fallen preseason contender"?

Simple: Any team that was ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 that currently has a KenPom.com ranking at least a dozen spots worse than its initial AP ranking.

Given how awful this year has been for the blue bloods/usual contenders, I figured there would be at least 15 teams who fit that description. Instead, it was only eight: Arizona State, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oregon and UCLA.

Of that octet, I can only see five legitimately making any sort of tournament run. Arizona State has no frontcourt, Michigan State has lost a game by 30 twice in the past three weeks, and there's no reason to even consider 13-loss Kentucky unless it wins the SEC tournament, since that is the only way it would make the Big Dance. Even at that, I cannot see that team stringing together multiple quality wins.

As far as the other five with a hope and a prayer, they are listed in descending order of preseason AP ranking.     

Preseason AP Ranking: No. 6

Current Record (KenPom Rank): 15-7 (No. 24)

Reason to Believe

Kansas has a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none thing going on.

The Jayhawks don't rank in the top 10 percent in the country in any of the Four Factors or Miscellaneous Components in KenPom, but they also don't rank in the bottom 33 percent in any category other than free-throw percentage on defense. They're above-average in overall efficiency on both ends of the floor, but they have neither a clear calling card nor an Achilles' heel. (Though three-point defense has been a colossal issue in their losses.)

Moreover, all five starters average at least 10 points per game, but the Jayhawks don't have a star player.

David McCormack is finally stepping into that role, though. At least a little bit. He's no Udoka Azubuike or Joel Embiid, but he has averaged 16.4 points and 3.6 offensive rebounds over his last seven games. That's substantial improvement from the marks of 11.5 and 2.2, respectively, that he had posted through Kansas' first 15 games.

Redshirt freshman Jalen Wilson has also come back with a vengeance after a major disappearing act for much of January. During the four-game stretch in which the Jayhawks lost three straight and barely won at home against TCU, Wilson averaged 5.3 points and 3.5 rebounds. Those numbers are 16.3 and 11.5, respectively, in Kansas' four most recent games, in each of which he had a double-double.

If that frontcourt duo keeps showing up, anything is possible. Marcus Garrett is an excellent defender. Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun can both stroke it from deep, each averaging at least two made triples per game.

Perhaps the biggest problem with this team is just bad luck.

In all seven of Kansas' losses, its opponents shot at least 80 percent from the free-throw line (collectively 106-of-125, or 84.8 percent). Those seven opponents also shot a combined 64-of-142 (45.1 percent) from three-point range. In its 15 wins, Kansas' opponents shot 29.9 percent from downtown.

To a certain extent, it's the Jayhawks' own doing. They've fouled the wrong guys and/or lost track of the wrong shooters along the perimeter. But defensive three-point and free-throw percentages are also inherently a little random, and those numbers are ridiculous. If that luck turns even a little bit in their favor while Wilson and McCormack continue to thrive, Kansas could go on a huge run.   

Preseason AP Ranking: No. 9

Current Record (KenPom Rank): 8-8 (No. 34)

Reason to Believe

When I originally wrote this section over the weekend, it was more or less a giant shrug emoji in the direction of mercurial freshman Jalen Johnson. I.e., if "Good Jalen Johnson" decides to show up the rest of the way, the ceiling is the roof.

Then on Monday, we found out that Johnson has opted out of the remainder of the season.

And in a weird way, that makes me more optimistic about Duke's NCAA tournament prospects.

Because while Johnson sputtered through an all-or-nothing (mostly nothing) season, so did many of his teammates, particularly Wendell Moore Jr., Jeremy Roach and the underutilized freshman big men (Mark Williams, Jaemyn Brakefield and Henry Coleman III).

By removing one wild card (Johnson) from the mix, maybe it'll stabilize things elsewhere.

If nothing else, Johnson's departure should be a positive for Duke's woeful defense, which is the end of the floor where he was most Jekyll and Hyde and where the Blue Devils need the most help. Johnson averaged 3.3 blocks and 3.1 steals per 100 possessions, but he just looked lost out there for much of the other 93.6 percent of the time.

And that shouldn't be a surprise. Similar to what happened with Jabari Parker back in 2013-14, a lot of that was merely a product of being forced to play out of position. Johnson came to Duke as a small forward, but he had to spend a lot of time as Duke's de facto center because of the roster construction.

Even worse, his defensive shortcomings were constantly on display because he was often paired up with Matthew Hurt in the frontcourt, and Hurt is just plain bad on defense.

With Johnson gone, we're going to see a lot more of Mark Williams—an actual center with a legitimate shot-blocking presence.

While that will improve the defense, it does create some question marks on offense. Duke already has a veteran point guard (Jordan Goldwire) who's out there much more for his defense than his offense. More minutes for Williams means more pressure on Hurt, Roach, Moore and DJ Steward to shoulder the load on offense.

However, that narrower focus on offense worked pretty well when Duke won the 2009-10 national championship with Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler as the only guys averaging better than 5.6 points per game.

Maybe Duke can turn things around and finally hit its stride when it matters most.    

Preseason AP Ranking: No. 16

Current Record (KenPom Rank): 12-7 (No. 43)

Reason to Believe

Outside of having no answer whatsoever for Iowa's three-point onslaught back in early December, the Tar Heels have been respectable on defense. Their raw numbers aren't great, but their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks in the top 35 in the country. Couple that with their usual spot among the nation's best offensive rebounding teams, and you've got a team capable of at least hanging with anyone.

Their problem has been everything on offense aside from the rebounding.

Freshman point guard Caleb Love has been woefully inefficient. It has taken him 219 field-goal attempts to score 204 points, he barely has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio (63-61) and his KenPom O-rating (84.5) is the second-worst in the ACC among guys playing at least 50 percent of minutes for their team. (Miami's Harlond Beverly takes the cake, though, at 71.1.)

In spite of Love's poor play, this offense has been showing signs of life as of late. (Not consistently, just to be clear. North Carolina was AWFUL on offense in the losses to Clemson and Virginia. But road games against those defenses are liable to make anyone look bad.)

North Carolina shot 54.4 percent from the field against NC State, 52.5 percent against Pittsburgh and 53.1 percent against Duke within the past five games. Prior to that, its season high was 47.7 percent against Iowa. And after averaging 15.5 turnovers through its first 11 games, North Carolina has trimmed that rate by nearly 20 percent to just 12.5 over its last eight games.

One of the biggest reasons for that turnaround has been the emergence of Kerwin Walton.

The freshman shooting guard scored a total of just six points in North Carolina's first six games, but he has scored at least seven in 11 consecutive contests and is shooting 47.8 percent (32-of-67) from three-point range since mid-December. Considering the rest of the team is shooting 26.7 percent (65-of-243) from deep, you could legitimately argue he's the most important player on the roster.

The Tar Heels are loaded with interior weapons. Garrison Brooks, Armando Bacot and Day'Ron Sharpe should all be headed for a long future as professional big men, be it in the NBA or overseas. But it's hard to run a two-bigs offense with an inefficient point guard and no floor spacing whatsoever. At least Walton is keeping defenses honest now, and the Tar Heels are much more of a threat for it.

It kind of reminds me of 2019-20 Virginia. Those Cavaliers were woeful on offense, started 11-5 and looked like they might miss the NCAA tournament (before it was canceled amid COVID-19). But once Tomas Woldetensae came out of nowhere and started canning three-pointers left and right, they turned things around in a hurry.

Preseason AP Ranking: No. 20

Current Record (KenPom Rank): 12-4 (No. 36)

Reason to Believe

Oregon's record seems fine, but make no mistake about it: The Ducks are on the NCAA tournament bubble. Their best wins of the season are a road game against Arizona and a neutral-site contest against Seton Hall, neither of which is saying much, and neither of which makes up for the bad home losses to Oregon State and Washington State.

However, this is a classic "If they're healthy in March, look out" squad.

Big man N'Faly Dante does not factor into that hypothetical. He tore his ACL in mid-December, and he's done for the year. But even without accounting for him, Oregon's primary rotation has been littered with absences all season long.

Will Richardson—the third-leading scorer last season who shot 46.9 percent from three-point range—didn't play his first game until Feb. 4 because of thumb surgery. Highly touted freshman Jalen Terry missed four games early in Pac-12 play. Top-five scorers LJ Figueroa and Chris Duarte each missed two games, including the loss to Oregon State. Another top-five scorer, Eric Williams Jr., has missed three of the last four games.

The Ducks have gone through two lengthy COVID-19 pauses and have been forced to use nine different starters and five different starting lineups—this after opening the season unclear on whether transfers Figueroa and Aaron Estrada would be ruled eligible to play this year.

Head coach Dana Altman deserves some sort of "rolling with the punches" award for keeping this team in the hunt for a bid in spite of all of these speed bumps.

But road wins over Arizona State and Arizona last week were a reminder of what this team is capable of doing. Four of the starters (Duarte, Figueroa, Richardson and Eugene Omoruyi) scored at least 15 each against the Sun Devils, and the defense held both of those opponents below 65 points.

If the Ducks are destined for a No. 10 or No. 11 seed and if they are healthy (minus Dante) heading into the tournament, they are going to be the prime candidate for "double-digit seed who reaches the Elite Eight."       

Preseason AP Ranking: No. 22

Current Record (KenPom Rank): 14-5 (No. 46)

Reason to Believe

As far as roster flow throughout the season is concerned, UCLA's situation is somewhat similar to Oregon's.

The Bruins opened the year unsure of whether a critical transfer—Johnny Juzang from Kentucky—would be allowed to play. (He didn't play until the team's fifth game.) Shortly after Juzang was fully implemented into the offense, one of the team's best players (Chris Smith) suffered a season-ending torn ACL.

Big man Cody Riley (ankle) and back-up big man Jalen Hill (personal reasons) were both unavailable in the recent 18-point loss to USC. In the subsequent bad loss to Washington State, Hill still didn't play and Riley (four points, one rebound, five fouls) wasn't his usual self.

When they've had their full complement of players, though, the Bruins have fared quite well.

Juzang has scored at least 25 points in three of his last five games, developing into the clear go-to scorer. Point guard Tyger Campbell is averaging just under 3.0 assists per turnover while leading an efficient offense. In Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Jules Bernard, the Bruins have a pair of 6'6" Swiss army knives. And with the combined force of Riley and Hill in the paint, UCLA has a bit of a mid-2010s Michigan State vibe, when the Spartans had Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling as co-starting centers.

There are two significant causes for concern, though.

The first is that this defense is bad. We all kind of assumed head coach Mick Cronin would turn things around on that end of the floor, given how consistently solid the defense was over his final decade with Cincinnati. However, thus far, all he has been able to change is the pace at which UCLA plays.

In efficiency, this defense is still almost as bad as when it was a gigantic red flag for that Lonzo Ball-led team a few years ago.

The other cause for concern is Cronin's NCAA tournament track record. In 11 career trips to the dance, he has made just one Sweet 16 appearance. He went 3-7 in his final seven seasons with the Bearcats, with the wins coming against a No. 15 seed, a No. 11 seed and a No. 9 seed (in overtime).

This team has the talent to do some damage, but I can already assure you I won't be picking UCLA to make a deep run. I've had my bracket destroyed by Cronin's teams too many times.