Updated Championship Odds for Every NBA Team

Now over a month into the season, we're still seeing plenty of upsets and parity as the short layoff and the league's health and safety protocols produce bizarre results on a nightly basis. Finally, though, we're starting to get some separation among the NBA's various tiers.

The cream is rising, in other words. Slowly and less certainly than in most seasons, but it's still rising.

That makes this a good time to see where all 30 NBA franchises' championship odds stand.

We'll use FanDuel's most recent figures to set the order and keep this organized. But in addition to giving a quick state-of-the-team analysis, we'll also comment on whether and why a few of the provided odds feel a little off.

Washington Wizards fans won't like that last part.

These odds feel a little harsh for the Chicago Bulls given they're a mostly youth-driven enterprise that could theoretically improve more over the course of this season than, say, the Detroit Pistons, who have the same +25000 odds.

But let's not split hairs. The Bulls have no shot at a title—particularly when Thaddeus Young and Garrett Temple, two of their most productive players this season, are more likely to wind up on other rosters via trade than they are to finish the campaign in Chicago. If the Bulls alter their roster at all, it'll likely be to skew younger.

That generally doesn't improve a club's record...or its title odds.

The Bulls are a middling scoring outfit and one of the league's very worst defenses, though they project to be in the hunt for a play-in spot.

That's something, at least.

Clearly, the oddsmakers are out on Sexland.

Sure, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a long history of losing (LeBron James' tenures excluded) and are punching well above their weight defensively. But Collin Sexton's brash play suggests he very much believes he's as good as anyone with whom he shares the floor, and Darius Garland is progressing nicely now that Sexton is ensconced as the 2.

Larry Nance Jr.'s electromagnetic hands make him a top-notch disruptor, as evidenced by his league-leading deflection rate. Jarrett Allen is a potential long-term answer at center who's already catching bodies with his new team, and Isaac Okoro projects as a defensive menace.

Though Andre Drummond is a short-timer and Kevin Love's contract remains an albatross, the Cavs' future is as bright as it's been in a while.

Cleveland seems very likely to outperform several of the other squads in this bottom tier. But let's focus the attention on an increasingly realistic chase for a play-in spot first. With this group, serious contention this season is impossible.

There's not much to say here as the Detroit Pistons didn't enter this season with realistic playoff aspirations, let alone visions of pursuing a title.

At 4-14, the Pistons are near the bottom of the East and have only faint hopes of sniffing the play-in round.

If they manage to offload Blake Griffin, who's struggled mightily enough that contenders have to be losing whatever interest they once had, they could slip even further behind the pack in their conference. Derrick Rose may return value in a trade—more than Griffin anyway—but that would further deplete a backcourt already missing rookie Killian Hayes.

Hayes' hip injury, which will cost him at least another couple of months but won't require surgery, is a real double-whammy. The Pistons' mounting losses won't even serve a developmental purpose for the franchise's most important young player. If he returns at all this year, it'll be like starting his rookie campaign all over.

The good news: Jerami Grant appears to be worth his $20 million annual salary, and it seems all but assured that Detroit will pick near the top of the 2021 draft.

The only possible quibble with the Minnesota Timberwolves' positioning is that they should actually be in a bottom tier of their own rather than tied with the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder at +25000.

Minnesota owns a plus-6.1 net rating in the rare minutes Karl-Anthony Towns has been on the floor, but the franchise center has logged just four total games this year due to a dislocated wrist and health and safety protocols. While it's tempting to argue the Wolves might be just fine with their best player available more often, there's just not enough talent on the rest of the roster to keep things competitive when Towns rests.

For example, D'Angelo Russell has been one of the most negatively impactful players in the league this season. Individual on-off numbers are noisy, but the eye test validates the stats. When Russell is in the game, he provides no defense at the point of attack or off the ball. On the other end, his mid-tempo pick-and-roll game doesn't generate quality looks for himself or for his teammates.

Towns will help, but he's not a miracle-worker. Minnesota has a dearth of talent at the forward spots, and as long as Anthony Edwards gets major minutes, the offense will fail to score efficiently.

There's absolutely nothing playoff-worthy about this group. It's a mercy their title odds aren't worse.

Though bolstered by poor opponent shooting luck from deep, the New York Knicks defense has now hung around in the top five for over a month. We're getting close to the point at which we must acknowledge the Knicks are doing something right.

No other team in this longest-odds group can claim top-five status on either end, which distinguishes New York nicely.

Even the most charitable view of the Knicks wouldn't warrant moving them any higher than, say, +20000. That's still a "no chance at a championship" level, so the difference is essentially meaningless. But you can't tell me a team that defends at a top-five clip for a quarter of the season deserves longer odds than the Sacramento Kings, who are on pace to post the worst defensive rating of all time.

Julius Randle won't keep flirting with triple-doubles every night, and when that happens, a Knicks offense that's already terrible will get worse. Though RJ Barrett is taking steps in his second season, his growth won't offset declines in other areas.

Ultimately, the point here is that the Knicks don't belong among the absolute dregs. They've earned their way out of the basement even if the odds say they're still down there.

At 8-9, the Oklahoma City Thunder clearly aren't the worst team in the league right now. But they might be the one most motivated to eventually achieve that distinction.

Framed slightly differently, OKC is the NBA's likeliest late-season tanker.

Though their coffers already overflow with incoming first-rounders, the Thunder might as well lean all the way into their rebuild by winning the race to the bottom. They've got Al Horford and George Hill on the roster, who'd ordinarily prevent them from falling too far. But both veterans are obvious trade candidates for, yes, more picks.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's major step forward means the 2020-21 season is already a success. At 22, he's a clear cornerstone. As long as the coming onrush of defeats doesn't stunt his growth or sour him on the organization, the Thunder should strip this thing down to the studs. 

The Charlotte Hornets aren't quite in the lowest-odds grouping, which feels right. To damn them with faint praise, they're better than the league's worst teams.

No, they don't have even the slimmest of chances at a championship. But the Hornets are respectable most nights, and they're regularly able to channel levels of excitement and aesthetic beauty the teams below them rarely can.

Miles Bridges is good for one or two such moments per game.

LaMelo Ball's confident, head-up style is contagious; the ball hums with energy when he's in the game. Devonte' Graham is gradually breaking out of his season-opening slump, Gordon Hayward is thriving as a first option, and Terry Rozier is shooting over 40.0 percent from deep for the second year in a row. 

Those are all mid- and long-term sources of hope that will make Charlotte's push to reach the play-in round this season more satisfying. Nobody should expect any more than that.

That the Sacramento Kings don't reside in the lowest tier speaks to the talent on the roster. It's understandable that a team with De'Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes would get the benefit of the doubt to some degree.

That has to be it because the results this season certainly don't justify exclusion from the lowest rung of the title ladder.

Even after surrendering two of its four lowest point totals of the season against the New York Knicks (Jan. 22) and Orlando Magic (Jan. 27), Sacramento remains on pace to post the worst defensive rating in NBA history.

We'll get deeper into it later, but you generally need a top-10 defense to be considered a contender. To wildly understate it, the Kings are...a little short of that threshold.

More likely than not, their playoff drought will extend to a 15th year.

Hard hit by COVID-19-related postponements, the Memphis Grizzlies have played fewer games than everyone so far. Fortunately, they've made the most of their limited action.

Owners of the league's second-best defense, these Grizzlies are admirably carrying the mantle of the bygone Grit-and-Grind era. They're aggressive, force a ton of turnovers and somehow manage to do it without fouling at a high clip. That's a real achievement with noted hack-master Dillon Brooks starting every game and ranking in the top three on the team in minutes played.

Brooks also leads Memphis in shot attempts, which is part of the reason scoring has been tough. He ranks 71st in true shooting percentage among the 72 players who've taken at least 200 shots this year.

Jaren Jackson Jr. hasn't played a game yet, and his return will open up the floor for Ja Morant's downhill drives. Added bonus: Brooks will probably shoot less often when the Grizzlies hit full strength.

Memphis deserves credit for overcoming limited reps, thinned rotations and the expectations of many who foresaw a consolidation year after 2019-20's ahead-of-schedule arrival.

Inexperience and suspect offense mean the Grizz can't expect much more than a first-round elimination. But that defense is intriguing, and Morant could give a higher seed a scare for a game or two in a playoff series.

Veteran-led and featuring a recent history of trying very hard to be the eighth seed, the Orlando Magic know what they're doing.

What they're doing happens to be maddening for a large subset of fans who probably wish the organization would quit aiming for mediocrity. But, you know, it's good to have goals.

Even with Nikola Vucevic in line to set a new career high in scoring, Orlando's offense is woefully ineffectual.

Some of that has to do with shot profile; the Magic take a larger share of mid-rangers than any other team. There's also a huge playmaking void with Markelle Fultz out for the year. Cole Anthony will get some valuable developmental reps, and he's already hit a game-winner, but rookie point guards are almost always in way over their heads.

The Magic are going to try harder than most to make the playoffs, which means they technically deserve title odds better than several teams ahead of them that are likelier to tank. But if we know anything about Orlando, it's that its playoff trips tend to end after no more than five first-round games.

Bradley Beal is bummed, and he has a right to be.

He's leading the league in scoring and ripping off efficient 40-point nights with regularity, but it hasn't mattered. The Washington Wizards just keep losing.

New addition Russell Westbrook, sometimes hurt but also ineffective when healthy, hasn't helped the Wizards raise their profile. Davis Bertans isn't shooting like an $80 million man. The defense, awful last year, is as non-competitive as ever and ranks in the bottom three in 2020-21.

Result: The Wizards own the league's lowest winning percentage.

Health and safety protocols have hamstrung Washington, and Thomas Bryant's torn ACL will keep him out all year. Even if you could guarantee Beal would be on the team for the duration, the Wizards would deserve to be among the group with the longest odds at +25000.

With the likelihood of a Beal trade increasing, their current +16000 odds read as an even bigger joke.

This feels like a lifetime-achievement odds bump as there's not much in the statistical record from this season to justify the San Antonio Spurs having significantly better odds than a team like the Memphis Grizzlies.

To the Spurs' credit, they've defended at a top-10 clip and beaten a handful of quality opponents. Both L.A. teams, the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics have taken L's from San Antonio this season. 

Just like last year, the Spurs are getting outscored when DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge share the floor. That puts this team is in the unusual position of potentially getting better by selling off veterans on expiring contracts. Usually, that's an asset-accumulation strategy that hurts the on-court product.

We've got multiple seasons of data saying the Spurs can buck that trend.

With or without its costlier veterans, San Antonio isn't a championship contender. But maybe optimism about what's possible with a more optimized (veteran-free) rotation explains these mid-pack odds.

We've reached a point at which, barring injury, the Atlanta Hawks feel like a playoff lock. Tied for sixth in the East with a positive point differential, they're in little danger of sliding out of the top eight.

The Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors figure to jump into that group eventually given their veteran cores and recent deep playoff runs, but it's the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks who'll have to worry about that. The Hawks' record isn't demonstrably better than either of those early-season surprises, but their peripherals and talent are both superior.

When Trae Young and John Collins are on the floor, Atlanta scores at an elite clip. That's not a shocker given their respective talents. The more surprising development is the Hawks defense, which has been better than average to this point in the year—even with those two noted sieves on the floor. Atlanta may regret its failure to extend Collins before the season if he sustains this level of impact.

De'Andre Hunter is a strong candidate for Most Improved Player honors, and Clint Capela's rim protection is as advertised. No team in the league has been particularly healthy this year, but the Hawks have done all this with several key additions missing significant time. There's real upside here if Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari eventually contribute at expected levels.

These are all great signs for the Hawks, but they're certainly not indicative of title-threat status.

The Houston Rockets have outscored opponents with James Harden off the floor (and, obviously, off the team) this season. We're still dealing in very small samples, and it'd be disingenuous to say they are better without their former MVP.

But it seems safe to trust the evidence that says they're better without the disgruntled version of Harden they had this year. Score that as a victory for chemistry and good vibes. The unquantifiable stuff still matters.

Houston feels more balanced in its current form—more like a recognizable basketball team than the norm-warping experiment it became around Harden. That's not to say the Rockets are anything more than a fringe play-in threat that will probably hover around .500 all year, but at least it now feels like they're playing the same sport as everyone else.

Victor Oladipo and P.J. Tucker are on expiring deals, so the roster, already changed significantly with the Harden trade, could undergo further alterations if those two also move on before the deadline. Given Houston's unabashed efforts to get under the tax, there's no way potential trade returns will include talent that raises the team's ceiling. Picks and more cash savings will be the priority.

So while the Rockets have looked better lately, there's a strong chance their talent level declines as the season progresses.

The New Orleans Pelicans' +12000 odds would make sense if everything had gone right this season. The virtual opposite has happened instead, which results in one of the more head-scratching figures in the league.

Steven Adams is good at what he does (being large, setting screens and fighting on the glass), but he's mostly just in the way of what should be a spaced-out, uptempo attack. Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick have been disappointments, Zion Williamson hoards layups but doesn't impact the game on defense, and Brandon Ingram is not yet a two-way threat.

It feels like many of New Orleans' rotation players would benefit from picking up the pace, but the Pels just aren't running.

Head coach Stan Van Gundy is trying to coax defensive accountability out of his young stars, but the Pels' No. 25 ranking on that end is evidence he hasn't succeeded yet.

The Pelicans are 6-10 and remain caught between building around their early-20s talent and trying to instill a winning culture by having vets in prominent roles. They're failing in both efforts.

Really? The odds sit at +10,000?

Granted, the Golden State Warriors are giving major minutes to rookie James Wiseman (which tends to hurt the bottom line), Draymond Green's shot is never coming back and opponents get to throw several defenders at Stephen Curry without fear of reprisal from anyone else...but don't these odds seem a little long?

Nobody's arguing the Dubs belong way up there with the two L.A. teams or the Milwaukee Bucks, but it's worth pointing out that Golden State has already beaten both the Lakers and the Clippers this year. Even with parity reigning, that has to count for something.

Curry is the league leader in total points and made threes, so even with more defensive attention than ever, he's still an offense unto himself. Green's defense, when fully engaged, still changes games. Also, an objective statement that will seem controversial: Andrew Wiggins is good—especially on defense, where he's become a shot-blocking weapon.

The Warriors lack depth and secondary playmaking, and they've outperformed their point differential to a larger extent than most. They're a third-tier contender as presently composed, at best.

But +10,000 isn't so far from where the Atlanta Hawks, Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans reside. It seems like championship experience and a two-time MVP still clinging to his prime warrant a little more love than that.

The Portland Trail Blazers offer good value at +6500, and it's possible they could become more of a bargain as losses mount.

Without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, both out several weeks with injuries, the Blazers are going to have a hard time maintaining their current winning record. Assuming the dive down the standings isn't too pronounced, a fully healthy Blazers squad will be much more dangerous in the playoffs than its record will suggest.

Damian Lillard is a verified big-game destroyer, and McCollum was on one of the most scalding heaters of his career prior to going down. With those two back, Nurkic anchoring the middle and the new duo of Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. patrolling the wings, Portland will be a postseason problem.

That group didn't get much time together before injuries broke them apart, but a plus-5.5 net rating indicates a high ceiling—one that could get higher with more reps later this year.

Don't sell your "Portland is a dark horse in the West" stock just yet. 

These odds might seem too flattering to an Indiana Pacers team currently lacking quality at the all-important wing positions, but maybe they are pricing in the upside of a couple of key returns.

T.J. Warren (foot) and Caris LeVert (surgery to remove cancerous tumor from kidney) are both out indefinitely, but if one or both makes it back at close to full form, Indy's ceiling rises. And if all we're talking about here are championship odds, the upper limits of a team's potential takes on extra importance.

It also helps that the Pacers have updated their shot profile on offense, ditching long twos in favor of threes and layups. That's been the biggest story of their first season under head coach Nate Bjorkgren. They've finally embraced scoring-efficiency math, which can only help in playoff series.

With all hands on deck, the Pacers have the depth, lineup variability and two-way style that serves postseason teams well. Domantas Sabonis is a strange bully-facilitator hybrid; Myles Turner might be the DPOY and can also stretch the floor; Malcolm Brogdon, LeVert and Warren could be one of the tougher 1-2-3 units in the league; and all those secondary pieces currently being forced into larger roles because of injury could again become luxuries off the bench.

Indy is pretty intimidating with the Holiday brothers and Doug McDermott coming off the bench. Less so when those three populate the first unit and play heavy minutes.

The Phoenix Suns' 5-1 start was all the more impressive with the Chris Paul-Devin Booker dynamic failing to fire on all cylinders. Having played sub-.500 ball since, the meaning of Phoenix's struggle to fully weaponize both guards (and Deandre Ayton) has changed.

Instead of expected growth on the front portending a higher level of dominance in the Suns' future, it might now be better to ask whether the pieces are ever going to fit as well as many hoped. 

Phoenix's defense has outperformed its offense so far, which is a good sign. Mikal Bridges is breaking out, which is another.

But until the Suns stop getting outscored in the minutes shared by their starry backcourt, these odds aren't going to get any better.

The Toronto Raptors gradually began righting the ship over the last two weeks, amassing a 5-3 record in their last eight games. That helped an alarming 2-8 start fade into the background, but it seems like those brutal first 10 contests shook the oddsmakers' faith.

At +5500, the Raps sit alongside the Pacers and Suns—a pair of quality teams that have nowhere near Toronto's level of postseason success.

The Raptors have a yawning hole at center, as Aron Baynes has turned in one of the worst starts by any player this year. Chris Boucher's emergence has mitigated the damage, but he was never supposed to be the full-time answer at the 5.

Pascal Siakam has regressed after looking more like himself in the first half of January, but it still seems hasty to assume he's forgotten how to play. Between him and OG Anunoby, Toronto has a pair of ideal playoff wings to throw at the most dangerous opponents, and you won't find a tougher backcourt tandem than Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet.

Forever in the bag for this team's grit and tactical acumen, I'm here to say these odds undersell the Raptors. They belong in the next tier up with the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks.

The Dallas Mavericks' position here indicates oddsmakers don't think we've seen the real team yet.

That's a sensible stance to take, as Dallas started the season with Kristaps Porzingis on the shelf and Luka Doncic behind the conditioning curve. Add to that the Mavs' status as one of the teams hit hardest by COVID-19 health and safety protocols, and there's even more reason to look skeptically at Dallas' 8-10 record and not-quite-break-even net rating.

The best offense in the league a year ago, Dallas is going to find its scoring touch at full health. And once Josh Richardson and Dorian Finney-Smith get their legs back under them, perimeter defense, a key failing in 2019-20, could actually become a strength. Doncic's renewed commitment on that end is one of the more encouraging signs of the early season.

It remains concerning that the Mavs' clutch offense was so bad last year, particularly since their offseason moves skewed toward improving the defense. Doncic still needs help in close-and-late situations, whether that comes in the form of a more egalitarian system or better support from secondary players. If there's one reason to doubt Dallas as a title threat, it's that Doncic could again wear down over the course of games and series.

The Mavs are in the right spot—based on their potential, not their performance to date—just outside the top handful of teams. It'd be unexpected if they won the whole thing, but not quite a complete shock.

The Denver Nuggets have no problem putting up points, and that'll be true as long as Nikola Jokic is around to score at all three levels and feed teammates with the widest array of creative setups in the league.

Jokic's combination of size, feel and passing touch make him one of the NBA's most dangerous offensive players...when he's standing perfectly still and closely defended. The rest of the Nuggets know all they have to do is find a sliver of space and, poof, the ball appears in their hands like magic. It's as if Jokic can coerce four other players to cut and move with his mind. 

The bad news: Denver's defense isn't any good. We'll hit the necessity of stopping power in more depth when we get to the Brooklyn Nets, but the Nuggets are a similarly one-sided operation. They've been marginally better over the last two weeks, but both of the Nuggets' most-used lineups bleed points—whether it's Michael Porter Jr. or Will Barton joining Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Paul Millsap on the floor.

Denver gained valuable experience during last year's improbable run to the conference finals, and those high-pressure moments can strengthen the fabric of a team. If only the Nuggets could keep opponents from tearing their defense to shreds.

Turnovers are a massive problem for the Miami Heat, and the reigning Eastern Conference champions are currently in the bottom 10 of both offensive and defensive efficiency.

In the East, only the Pistons and Wizards have fewer wins.

Much of this is due to personnel shortages. Jimmy Butler has played a grand total of six games, and his extended absence pushes bit players into outsized roles every night. It's unlikely Miami expected Gabe Vincent to play in 10 games during the season's first month, let alone start five of them.

The fatigue of last season's deep run and Tyler Herro's missing jumper exacerbate the struggle, but at least Bam Adebayo is taking yet another step after last year's breakout. Already established as one of best frontcourt facilitators in the game, Adebayo is on pace to blow past last season's assist percentage while also setting new personal bests in true shooting and usage rate. His mid-ranger is now a true weapon.

Miami is a bit of a mess at the moment, but it hasn't finished below ninth in defensive efficiency in any of the last five years. Scoring may remain an issue, but the D will come around, and the Heat deserve the benefit of the doubt. Their odds, which are tied with those of the Mavs and Nuggets, reflect a large measure of faith in their ability to sort all this out.

The Boston Celtics could stand to keep opponents out of the restricted area more often. But even with that concerning issue, they're fielding a respectable defense. Ditto on the other end, where Boston has found ways to generate points, despite Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker each missing long stretches.

We know the Celtics have the experience necessary to be categorized as a contender. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have been visiting the conference finals regularly since their rookie years. They've seen more big games than any under-25 superstar tandem has a right to.

Boston, which has the seventh-best shot at a chip, isn't quite in that true top tier. But it probably should be, considering the Raptors and Warriors, both recent champs, are the only teams with more playoff wins since 2017-18 than Boston's 26.

The Celtics need to figure out how to get better production from their 4s and 5s, and Walker's knee has to hold up for the duration. Even if one of those problem areas isn't solvable, Tatum and Brown give Boston a shot against anyone.

It feels like the Celtics are undervalued here.

Theory: The Utah Jazz have the most *Very Good Basketball Players* in the league. With Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell (depending on whether you're in or out on the latter as a true superstar), they might only have one-and-a-half great ones. But Utah can field a full rotation of guys who just know how to play and take nothing off the table.

Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, Derrick Favors and Royce O'Neale are absolutely rock solid. 

In a decisive win over the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday, Utah kept the ball hopping and the defense airtight—all without Mitchell and Favors available. 

Depth, Conley's resurgence, Mitchell's step forward and continuity have all combined to give Utah the best record in the league. This team has made a habit of putting on incredible runs for long stretches in each of the last few seasons, but this one feels more sustainable. If Mitchell can be the kind of take-it-over postseason star he was in last year's playoffs, something special could be afoot.

Keep an eye on the Jazz. The L.A. teams aren't the only ones who could realistically come out of the West.

With Joel Embiid playing MVP ball and lifting the defensively dominant Philadelphia 76ers to the top of the East, it's easy to train total focus on the big man when considering Philly's likelihood of winning a championship.

Don't overlook Tobias Harris.

His game-winner against the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday, a high point in what's on pace to be a career year, suggested Harris could be the answer to the critical "what do we do when we need a late-game bucket?" question.

Embiid is a wrecking ball, but he may not be the best option in clutch situations against a set defense bound to double him. Harris' ability to create space in one-on-one matchups, even if it's only to generate a contested pull-up against a switch, matters. That's the kind of thing serious contenders need in case of emergency. If he can keep providing that, it adds a necessary ingredient to the recipe in Philadelphia

The Embiid-Ben Simmons Sixers have never looked this dangerous, and they have yet to lose when their whole starting five is healthy. That said, their fifth-best odds seem fair in light of a soft schedule and a net rating that only ranks eighth so far.

The Milwaukee Bucks are past the point of being judged on their regular-season efforts. They've crushed the last two, only to come up empty in the playoffs. Yet again this year, Milwaukee is posting regular stomp-outs and running up a league-best net rating.

That a team with the two-time reigning MVP and the league's top offense only has the fourth-best championship shot tells us the "we've seen this movie before" playoff concerns are causing oddsmakers to discount the Bucks' performance.

It's hard to fault them. Twice now, Milwaukee has burned those that bought its stellar regular seasons and overlooked its postseason solvability.

The Bucks have tweaked their attack by stationing a player in the dunker spot, rather than having everyone camped out beyond the arc. That's producing more efficient scoring right now, but can it sustain under the more focused scouting of a playoff series?

Those who believe Milwaukee's underwhelming odds are justifiable might focus on Giannis Antetokounmpo's waning production. His numbers are down across the board, and his free-throw yips are a genuine concern. If he's dissuaded from attacking the rim for fear of clanking freebies, opponents are going to capitalize. That gives this team a vulnerability other top-tier contenders lack.

Anyone else wondering what these odds would look like if the Los Angeles Clippers hadn't imploded in the second round last year?

This was true in 2019-20, and we all saw how that ended, but L.A.'s on-paper case is airtight: a pair of elite two-way wings (one of which already has two Finals MVP trophies), depth up and down the roster, playmaking on the second unit, the ability to go big up front (Ivica Zubac) or stretch the floor (Serge Ibaka)—it's all here.

It shouldn't be a surprise, then, that Los Angeles owns an elite offense. The defense, a touch below average overall, is not a concern with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George around.

Obviously, the Clips are still among the favorites to win it all. But it feels fair to assume they'd have even better odds if not for concerns about the way they came undone in the bubble. Knowing that, it's difficult to believe they can do anything during this regular season to inspire higher levels of confidence. They dominated on cruise control for long stretches a year ago, but there'll be no eliminating skepticism until they prove they've changed by making a deep playoff run.

Offense alone has never won a championship, but it's clear oddsmakers think that could change.

Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving give the Brooklyn Nets one of the most potent point-producing trios in league history. When your third option, Irving, is a six-time All-Star currently cruising toward a scoring average in the high 20s on a 50/40/90 pace, you're presenting defenses with truly unmanageable problems.

Even without many reps together, it's already obvious Brooklyn's superstar triad cannot be stopped. Forget concerns about role-sharing and everyone's favorite "there's only one ball" refrain. These guys roll out of bed with the ability to shred nets.

Defensively, though? That's another issue.

Last season's champion Los Angeles Lakers had the third-best defensive rating during the regular season. Only one champ since 2000, the 2001 Lakers, finished outside the top 11 in defensive efficiency. More often than not during that two-decade span, title winners have had a top-five defensive rating.

Brooklyn is currently 25th in defensive efficiency, and it's been little better in games Irving, Harden and Durant have played together. Lacking depth, short on roster flexibility and staring down historical trends that say defense is critical to ultimate success, Brooklyn's second-best odds are tough to justify.

Don't get caught up with all that offense. If you score 140 and give up 141, you still lose.

Last year's champs are undiminished. If anything, the Los Angeles Lakers look better than they did a season ago.

Marc Gasol's passing and general basketball acumen make up for his lack of mobility, and his presence on the floor significantly improves L.A.'s shot quality. The Lakers' effective field-goal percentage jumps by over 6 percent when the veteran center is in the game. With him and LeBron James on the floor, the Lakers give observers an indulgent surplus of "well that was exactly the right pass to make in that situation."

It's fun!

Unfun: trying to score against the league's best defense. Los Angeles has trimmed a point off a defensive rating that ranked third a year ago and is running away with top honors on that end so far this season. All this with Anthony Davis still easing into the year. When he revs all the way up, look out.

James' star is as bright as ever, and he's showing no signs of taking it easy as he guns for a fifth MVP.

There's no question the Lakers deserve this top position. They've been the best team during the regular season, and we know they have another gear in them when the games really start to matter.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Basketball Insiders.