NFL Draft 2021: Who Are This Year's Biggest Bust Candidates?

The NFL draft is often a minefield.

If a team spends a pick wisely, a prospect can help it achieve its goals. However, one wrong pick could send an organization in the other direction.

While the word bust is harsh, it's fitting given the damage a prospect can do to a team if he fails to meet expectations. Take Dwayne Haskins, whom the Washington Football Team selected 15th overall in 2019 and released less than two years later. Or the setback the Detroit Lions will endure if 2020 No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah doesn't turn his career around after a disappointing rookie season.

Prospects become busts for a variety of reasons, whether it's a questionable fit or poor evaluation of talent. Onlookers can find some of these warning signs early, like a prospect who feasted on weak competition in college or was propped up by the players around him. 

The 2021 NFL draft will be especially tricky given the canceled games and opt-outs that left teams with less film to evaluate than usual. However, the following high-profile prospects have some early warning signs. 

It's risky to spend an early-round pick on a running back given the devalued nature of the position and the idea that college workload could limit pro effectiveness. 

So while Travis Etienne is one of the most decorated backs in Clemson Tigers history, he's also a bit concerning as a pro prospect. 

Etienne put up head-turning numbers in college, rushing for 4,952 yards and 70 touchdowns while averaging 7.2 yards per carry over four seasons. He also caught 102 passes for 1,155 yards and eight touchdowns and pitched in on kick returns. 

That resume has Etienne ranked as the 21st overall prospect at CBS Sports. But his size (5'10", 205 pounds), huge workload to date (686 carries) and ball-security issues (three lost fumbles in 2020) suggest he could be a risky investment in the first two rounds of the draft.

Caleb Farley has been all over the place at Virginia Tech. 

Farley came into college as a wide receiver, but he shifted to cornerback after redshirting in 2017. He broke out in 2019, getting named to the All-ACC first team, and he's now ranked as the 10th overall prospect at The Draft Network. 

However, his resume doesn't come without warning signs.

Farley suffered a non-contact ACL tear in 2017 before exploding with four interceptions and 12 passes defensed in 2019. He then sat out the 2020 season, which makes him a possible one-year wonder. 

Farley also struggles to wrap up tackles, which is something NFL teams will exploit, especially on the ground.

None of this means Farley is destined to become a bust, but scouts weren't able to see whether he smoothed out some of his problem areas in 2020.

Miami edge-rusher Gregory Rousseau had the look of a top-10 defender in 2019. 

Over 13 games, Rousseau put up a staggering 19.5 tackles for loss, 15.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and pass defensed. At 6'5" and 260 pounds, he seemed like one of the most pro-ready players set to enter the NFL over the next few years. 

However, Rousseau opted out of the 2020 season. Considering he played only one game in 2018 because of an ankle injury, it's concerning that he didn't get to work on his array of pass-rushing moves against live competition for more than a year. 

According to NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah, Rousseau didn't start playing on the defensive line until his senior year of high school. His upside is amazing, but he needs to work on the fundamentals and prove he can stay healthy.

One year of huge production and limited experience otherwise could leave teams in the first round wary of rolling the dice on him.

Alabama quarterback Mac Jones threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns against four interceptions in 2020, completing 77.4 percent of his 402 attempts. That earned him the highest-ever single-season quarterback grade from Pro Football Focus. 

However, a closer look hints at some issues.

CBS Sports has Jones ranked 25th overall, but he's 46th at The Draft Network. The former has Alabama wideouts DeVonta Smith (the Heisman Trophy winner) and Jaylen Waddle ranked among the top 10 overall prospects and two of his offensive linemen (Deonte Brown and Alex Leatherwood) in the top 50. The latter has both wideouts in the top 10, Leatherwood at No. 27 and running back Najee Harris at No. 21.

That may lead teams to wonder whether Jones was a product of his surrounding talent.

Smith accounted for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns of his production. Alabama's weapons compensated for his average arm strength, and he won't thrive off script like 2020 No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow.

While Jones has the feel of a late first-rounder, the lone year of standout production and strength of his surrounding pieces raise some cautionary signs. 

Zach Wilson is one of the consensus top quarterback prospects, and that doesn't figure to change throughout the draft process. 

Wilson broke out in 2020, completing 73.5 percent of his passes for 3,692 yards and 33 touchdowns against only three interceptions. Considering he had only 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions on a similar number of attempts in 2019, the leap in production was noteworthy.

The BYU star has a booming arm and can make impressive throws with anticipation. He also makes plenty of plays with his legs, whether it's getting out of trouble or picking up yardage on his own, as evidenced by his 10 rushing scores this past season. 

The problem with Wilson is competition. He faced only four teams with a winning record all season, and while throwing for four touchdowns against 2-10 Texas State is great, throwing one score and a pick against 11-1 Coastal Carolina isn't. 

Tearing down a prospect for taking care of business against a bad schedule isn't always advisable. But it's at least a big warning sign with Wilson, whose dramatic one-year leap coincided with a cakewalk lineup of opponents. 

Trey Lance is somewhat of a great unknown in the 2021 class. 

In 2019, he completed 66.9 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions, and he added 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. However, a lack of film—he played only one game in 2020—and concerns about his level of competition may work against him.

Lance's upside is immense, largely because of his running potential, but having only 318 collegiate passing attempts is concerning. Pro Football Focus' Mike Renner compared him to New Orleans Saints gadget player Taysom Hill, "but if Taysom Hill could throw the football somewhat accurately."

Some team will take the plunge on Lance's enormous upside. But in an impatient league that often expects results from quarterback prospects right away, it could backfire.