Bills' Keys to Win Playoff Matchup vs. Chiefs
The Buffalo Bills can earn a Super Bowl berth on Sunday by avenging one of their three regular-season defeats.
Sean McDermott's squad mustered 17 points in a Week 6 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs. After that loss, the Bills won all but one game to qualify for the AFC Championship Game.
Leslie Frazier's defensive unit is coming off one of its best performances of the season, and it needs to replicate that type of performance to limit Kansas City's top stars.
In case a high-scoring affair breaks out, the Bills need to make a few offensive tweaks to ensure they can keep up with Kansas City.
One way to do that is to have a much more balanced attack than the divisional round, when Devin Singletary was not heard from much in the ground game.
Limit the Big-Play Potential of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce
The Bills are not going to take Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce out of the game for four quarters.
Kansas City's top two passing-game targets will make some type of impact on Sunday's game, but what Buffalo can do is limit how many long gains they earn.
Kelce and Hill combined for 72 yards after the catch in the divisional-round win over the Cleveland Browns. Mecole Hardman also had 67 YAC.
In Week 6, three Kansas City players had over 30 yards YAC. Kelce and Demarcus Robinson led the team with 49, while Hill managed just eight.
The Bills held Hill to three catches for 20 yards, but Kelce was not stopped. The tight end recorded five catches for 65 yards and a pair of scores.
If Buffalo limits what Kelce can do across the middle and Hill's speed along the sidelines, it could force some punts, or hold Kansas City to field-goal attempts.
If Hill and Kelce run rampant through the secondary, Kansas City could put up 30-40 points and force Buffalo to beat it in a shootout.
Get Devin Singletary More Involved
Buffalo could try to beat Kansas City with Josh Allen's arm, but it would be wise of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to incorporate Singletary more at the start of the game.
The Bills' top running back only had seven carries for 25 yards in Saturday's win over the Baltimore Ravens. He has not earned double-digit touches in the ground game since Week 16.
Singletary's usage went down at the end of the regular season because of Zack Moss' productivity, but with the rookie out, he needs to make more of an impact on the contest.
On Saturday, Daboll did not dial up a run play for Singletary until the 3:07 mark of the second quarter. He went right back to passing calls on the next five plays of the drive.
Singletary does not need a 100-yard game for the Bills to achieve victory, but he has to be used more to keep Kansas City's defense honest.
If Daboll calls another high ratio of pass plays, Kansas City's front four can focus solely on stopping Allen, and that may result in an increase of hurries and sacks that turn into drive killers for the Bills.
Put Patrick Mahomes Under Pressure to Create Turnovers
Kansas City's offense put up plenty of high totals this season, but it is not a perfect unit.
The Chiefs turned the ball over in each of their last five games. Five of Mahomes' six interceptions occurred after Week 9.
In Mahomes' six postseason starts, he has two interceptions from Super Bowl 54 and six fumbles, none of which he lost. The Chiefs quarterback was also sacked 14 times in those contests.
If the Bills put pressure on the Kansas City quarterback, it could result in a bad decision or two that leads to a turnover. They forced Lamar Jackson into that on Taron Johnson's interception return for a touchdown on Saturday.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Mahomes is "expected to practice" on Wednesday, but he is dealing with a foot injury that hampered him a bit before he left Sunday's game in concussion protocol.
If the Bills force Mahomes out of the pocket and adjust to routes run by the Chiefs wide receivers, it could create a bad throw or two from the banged-up quarterback.
Buffalo created a turnover in 14 of its 18 games and won eight of the nine games in which it earned multiple takeaways. The lone exception was the Kyler Murray "Hail Mary" victory in Week 10.
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Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference