Dark-Horse Destinations for MLB's Biggest Free Agents

There are only so many ways we can say MLB free agency is moving at a snail's pace.

By Dec. 22 last offseason, Scott Boras clients alone had netted more than $1 billion in guaranteed money. That is in stark contrast to this winter, when the top stars remain unsigned and the richest contract is a four-year, $40.6 million deal catcher James McCann signed with the New York Mets.

Players are having a hard time setting the market as front offices grapple with spending capabilities amid revenue losses from the coronavirus pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

But might this actually widen the scope of possibilities for various players? After all, we have already heard numerous stars could have many suitors.

Here is a closer examination of dark-horse destinations for some of the top free agents. The player-team combinations are meant to be unlikely, but some address recent chatter on the hot stove. Fit was also a consideration.

Liam Hendriks has an abundance of interest, per ESPN's Jeff Passan, and with good reason.

The 2020 Mariano Rivera American League Reliever of the Year has been the most valuable reliever in baseball over the last two years. Hendriks' 5.2 fWAR vastly outpaces his peers, and his 2.34 SIERA ranks fourth during that span.

Hendriks has a live arm with an overpowering fastball he locates to all quadrants and a wipeout slider that has generated a whiff rate of over 50 percent in each of the last two years. He has overpowering stuff and is the ideal back-end arm for any team.

The Australian seems to make plenty of sense for the Los Angeles Dodgers, especially with Kenley Jansen's contract expiring after 2021. The Toronto Blue Jays could also use bullpen help and, in a year in which they appear to be going for it, met with Hendriks on Monday, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

But the team that could grow increasingly aggressive in Hendriks' market is the Houston Astros, who have pursued him, per Passan.

The Houston bullpen was effective (4.39 ERA) last year, though Andre Scrubb and Blake Taylor had high walk rates and could be due for some regression. Ryan Pressly is a tremendous asset but also blew four saves and might be better suited to a setup role.

Additionally, the Astros might choose to delegate the majority of their funds to the bullpen. They do not appear to be in on George Springer. Re-signing Michael Brantley could also prove challenging, but more on that later.

If Houston is not going to spend big on Springer or Brantley, it could free up payroll for a more lucrative offer to Hendriks, whom Passan noted is seeking a four-year deal. The length of the contract could benefit the Astros given that Pressly's pact is up after the 2022 campaign.

The Astros signed Ryne Stanek, but he could be mostly a reclamation project, and Houston needs more. Hendriks could be the impact pitcher at the back end.

Dark-Horse Candidate: Astros

Needless to say, DJ LeMahieu will get plenty more than the two-year, $24 million deal he signed with the New York Yankees in 2019.

LeMahieu was one of the best hitters in baseball during his time in the Big Apple, putting up 7.9 fWAR and winning the second batting title (.364) of his career in 2020. He was the lynchpin of a lineup frequently beset by injuries and also played multiple positions.

New York will take a "wait-and-see" approach with LeMahieu, per Jack Curry of YES Network (via Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media). The veteran also had interest from the Mets (though they are almost certainly out after acquiring Francisco Lindor) and Blue Jays, but keep an eye on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported Jan. 2 the Dodgers were showing interest in LeMahieu, who would provide defensive versatility while also improving a lineup that was one of the best at putting the ball in play last year (third in the National League in fewest strikeouts).

There are a few things to consider. The first is the depth of talent in the Los Angeles infield, which also includes youngsters Gavin Lux and Edwin Rios. Secondly, a deal with LeMahieu would almost certainly push the Dodgers over the luxury tax. Lastly, what about a reunion with Justin Turner?

Well, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reported Turner is looking for a four-year deal. Turner's average annual value would likely be lower than LeMahieu's. But LeMahieu is almost four years younger with limited durability concerns and more positional versatility.

It is rare for Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to dole out massive contracts in free agency. Los Angeles is also still likely to pursue more bullpen arms even after re-signing Blake Treinen, and Corey Seager's and Clayton Kershaw's impending free agencies loom large. Plus, the Mets' acquisition of Lindor could make the Blue Jays and Yankees more aggressive in their efforts to sign LeMahieu.

Friedman, however, might feel it is worth it to dip into the luxury tax for LeMahieu, especially if the Dodgers are still in amid his crowded market. Not to mention, LeMahieu might put extra stock in joining the defending World Series champions.

Dark-Horse Candidate: Dodgers

Michael Brantley has the dual benefit of being a designated hitter type who also appeals to teams that need a corner outfielder.

The Chicago White Sox were reported to be in on Brantley last month, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Washington Nationals could also pursue Brantley as a middle-of-the-order bat, though it appears Kyle Schwarber is their outfielder of choice after he signed a one-year deal with Washington on Saturday.

The Minnesota Twins present an intriguing landing spot as well.

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported last month the Twins "checked in" on Brantley, and Darren Wolfson of KSTP reiterated that point on the latest Locked On Twins podcast.

Brantley would be an interesting target for Minnesota for multiple reasons. He would be a natural fit to replace Nelson Cruz as the team's DH should the Twins fail to bring Cruz back. But even if they do re-sign the veteran slugger, the Twins could still go after Brantley.

Minnesota might not commit to anything longer than a two-year deal with Cruz, if that. The Twins are also in need of a corner outfielder after non-tendering Eddie Rosario.

Brantley could be a bridge. He could play one of the corner outfield spots in the event Cruz is re-signed and settle in to the DH spot once Cruz's contract runs out. This might also allow top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach more time to develop, though Minnesota might feel one or both are ready to play now.

Regardless, Brantley makes sense. Minnesota ranked ninth in the AL in strikeouts in 2020. Brantley would be a great contact presence, having ranked in the 93rd percentile in whiff rate, but he also has power to all fields.

It might not be the biggest surprise if the four-time All-Star joined the Bomba Squad, whether or not Cruz re-signs.

Dark-Horse Candidate: Twins

This was supposed to be J.T. Realmuto's offseason as much as anyone else's. Now, it is unknown what Realmuto's market will even look like in the coming weeks.

Re-signing Realmuto is a "priority" for the Philadelphia Phillies, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, but Philly did not extend him during the season and has been coy about its free-agency spending.

The Nationals also showed interest in Realmuto, with Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic reporting the team had "early discussions" with the two-time All-Star. But Washington's decision to sign Kyle Schwarber to a one-year deal puts its estimated 2021 payroll at $182 million, per Roster Resource. Adding Realmuto would likely push them dangerously close to the luxury tax.

It is possible the Los Angeles Angels will choose to get involved. However, L.A. needs starting pitching and might go hard after Trevor Bauer with the Mets possibly pricing themselves out of his market following the Francisco Lindor trade.

Maybe a reunion with the Phillies really could be the resolution. But what if the Blue Jays choose to get more involved?

Toronto has a ton of catching depth in its pipeline, including Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire and Alejandro Kirk. But none are of Realmuto's quality.

Realmuto has had an OPS of at least .820 in each of the past three years. His 123 OPS+ in 2020 was the second-best of his career. Moreover, the 29-year-old is a terrific pitch-framer who has also thrown out 36 percent of would-be base-stealers in his career.

The Blue Jays previously showed interest in Realmuto. He would be the ideal target in the event Toronto strikes out on DJ LeMahieu or George Springer, especially because general manager Ross Atkins might then leverage one of the young catchers to acquire more starting pitching.

Dark-Horse Candidate: Blue Jays

Perhaps nobody will benefit more from Tomoyuki Sugano's decision to stay in Japan than Jake Odorizzi.

Sugano and Odorizzi headlined the next tier of starting pitchers available following Trevor Bauer. With Sugano off the market, the swaths of clubs needing quality starting pitching can turn to Odorizzi.

The 30-year-old made just four starts last season because of a multiple injuries, giving up 10 earned runs in 13.2 innings. Odorizzi, however, is just one year removed from arguably his best season.

He was an All-Star in 2019, finishing with a 3.51 ERA in 30 starts. He posted a career-high 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings in addition to a 3.36 FIP, another personal best.

The former Tampa Bay Rays right-hander has an array of pitches, mixing in a cutter and splitter. But the four-seam fastball is his best offering, notching an exceptional run value of minus-19 in 2019. That kind of fastball success surely appeals to any team.

Indeed, Odorizzi appears to have quite a market. Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio previously reported at least seven teams were in on Odorizzi, including the San Diego Padres.

Granted, Duquette's report came before the Friars acquired Blake Snell and Yu Darvish. San Diego could address its bullpen by re-signing Kirby Yates or Trevor Rosenthal, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Padres have expressed interest in re-signing Jurickson Profar.

But general manager A.J. Preller appears to be embracing the idea of "you can never have too much pitching." Rosenthal and colleague Dennis Lin reported the Padres were in the mix to sign Sugano before he returned to the Yomiuri Giants.

It is certainly possible San Diego shows interest in Odorizzi until the end. The question will be whether—after adding Snell's and Darvish's salaries—the Padres can make a competitive offer to Odorizzi and be able to fill out the bullpen.

Dark-Horse Candidate: Padres

Marcell Ozuna, much like Nelson Cruz, could be waiting for a ruling on the universal designated hitter rule before deciding with which team he should sign. But his market is far from scarce.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported in November that "no less" than 10 teams were showing interest in Ozuna, including the Atlanta Braves. It is not surprising Ozuna's market would be so plentiful.

The 30-year-old is coming off a season in which he led the NL in homers (18), RBI (56) and total bases (145) and hit .338 with a 1.067 OPS. Ozuna ranked in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity, the 97th in hard-hit percentage and the 99th in xwOBA.

Atlanta appears to be a strong candidate to push hard in its efforts to re-sign Ozuna. Perhaps Toronto will become more involved should it miss out on George Springer, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported last month. But there is another AL club with a DH need that could be willing to spend big.

Fresh off their first playoff berth in 12 years, the Chicago White Sox have already bolstered their rotation by trading for Lance Lynn. They also signed veteran outfielder Adam Eaton to platoon in right field with Adam Engel. But general manager Rick Hahn does not appear to be done.

Heyman mentioned the White Sox were in on left-hander Brad Hand in addition to Liam Hendriks. But, as previously noted, Chicago was also still in on Michael Brantley, even after it signed Eaton.

Would it make more sense to go after Ozuna? The Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, native can start at DH and move into the outfield should the White Sox decline Eaton's club option for 2022. Signing Ozuna would also allow top prospect Andrew Vaughn more time to develop, though his MLB arrival could be imminent.

Even still, the White Sox could shift pieces in the coming seasons, with Vaughn taking over at first base and Jose Abreu (if he is re-signed after 2022) moving to DH with Ozuna playing the outfield.

Jerry Reinsdorf can be hesitant to spend big money on free agents, but Ozuna would be a windfall for Chicago after it got underwhelming DH production from Edwin Encarnacion.

Dark-Horse Candidate: White Sox

We cited in the DJ LeMahieu blurb that Justin Turner is hoping for a four-year deal.

There is a good chance that results in the veteran's playing for another team next year, particularly given the Dodgers' interest in LeMahieu as well as the report by Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times that L.A. could look into a trade for Kris Bryant or Eugenio Suarez. So, if Turner does not return, where will he land?

The Blue Jays, as with almost every big name, were reported to have interest, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. But the 36-year-old might not be as good a fit alongside Toronto's young core as a younger option such as a LeMahieu, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto or others.

Outside of a return to Los Angeles and purported interest from Toronto, there has been little to report with respect to Turner's market. Teams will eventually jump in, with one possibility being the Nationals.

The Nats are hoping Kyle Schwarber can be their new slugger in the middle of the lineup, but they could also use an upgrade at the hot corner.

As things stand, it appears Starlin Castro will hold down second or third base. That means Carter Kieboom or Luis Garcia will be an everyday player. Is Washington comfortable with that?

Garcia is still just 20 years old. He hit .276 in his big league debut but does not walk a lot (4.4 percent walk rate in the minors) and has limited slugging upside. Kieboom, meanwhile, has hit .181 with a 29.7 percent strikeout rate in 165 plate appearances in the majors.

Turner provides more assurances. He has a .292 career average with an .838 OPS, including .302 and .886 in seven years with the Dodgers. Turner almost never strikes out, and his .553 expected slugging mark in 2020 was the second-best of his career.

The contact element is especially important. Despite his slugging upside, Schwarber strikes out quite a bit. Turner would make for a steadier bat to offer protection for Juan Soto and, unlike Realmuto, could probably be signed while still giving Washington some room below the luxury tax.

While it is valid to acknowledge the Nats might not be in a position to offer an aging star a hefty salary, Turner is the kind of consummate hitter who could leave a massive imprint on the lineup.

Dark-Horse Candidate: Nationals

Picking a dark-horse candidate for Trevor Bauer is tough, especially given recent proceedings.

The Mets might otherwise have been a major suitor. But Andy Martino of SNY reported his desire to break Gerrit Cole's $36 million annual salary mark likely prices him out of New York, especially after the Mets took on payroll with the acquisition of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. The Padres might also be out because of payroll constraints.

Thus, the Blue Jays and Angels are the favorites, whereas previously they might have been dark-horse types.

Alas, we arrive at the San Francisco Giants.

John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reported the Giants have discussed Bauer, which only makes sense given their need for starting pitching. But the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner would make plenty of sense for San Francisco going forward.

The Giants have tons of money coming off the books next year. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Kevin Gausman will be free agents, and the team is likely to decline club options on Johnny Cueto and Buster Posey.

Additionally, the Giants have rapidly supplemented their pipeline with young talent. Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter ranked the San Francisco system No. 14 in the majors—no small thing considering the Giants had a lackluster farm just a couple of years ago.

So, San Francisco has rising talent and ample funds to spend in the future. That could appeal to Bauer if he is indeed seeking a five- or six-year deal.

There is also the fact Oracle Park is typically a haven for pitchers and that the Giants signed former Bauer batterymate Curt Casali last week.

San Francisco would still be a surprising choice because the Giants are not exactly ready to contend. But they sure could be in 2022 and for years to come thereafter.

Dark-Horse Candidate: Giants

Jackie Bradley Jr. could make perfect sense for the Mets.

By all accounts, New York will still at least attempt to sign George Springer, per Andy Martino of SNY. But Martino reported Springer's camp is hoping for $175 million. That might not be realistic for the Mets after they added Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco.

If New York still wants to add a center fielder, however, Jackie Bradley Jr. would be a more cost-efficient option who could also allow the Mets to spend more on improving their bullpen.

Bradley has always been one of the best defenders in baseball. The 2018 Gold Glover ranks third in defensive runs saved among center fielders since 2014. He was among the leaders in outs above average in 2020 and landed in the top 11 in 2017 and 2018 as well.

The 30-year-old also had a resurgent season at the plate, hitting .283 with an .814 OPS. Bradley walked slightly more and struck out less, with a revised approach clearly paying dividends. He has yet to show consistent year-over-year results but has clear slugging potential from the left side.

Michael Mayer of USA Today reported around the time the Mets acquired Lindor and Carrasco that they were in contact with Bradley, possibly marking a shift in philosophy.

New York could pass on a Springer megadeal, pivoting to JBJ and going after Brad Hand. Team president Sandy Alderson said the Mets might have claimed Hand off waivers from Cleveland had the new front office already been in place, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

Here is the other tidbit worth mentioning: opting for Bradley and going with more of a quantity approach this offseason could leave funds to use on extensions for Lindor and Michael Conforto.

Dark-Horse Candidate: Mets

One way or another, the Angels will add starting pitching this offseason.

The Halos ranked 21st in starting pitching fWAR and 29th in ERA in 2020. Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney are entrenched, but it's unknown when Shohei Ohtani will take the mound again, and Griffin Canning, Jaime Barria and Patrick Sandoval are still developing.

Angels manager Joe Maddon said last month the team needed at least two starters to increase its depth. Naturally, Los Angeles would love to attract the top pitcher on the market in Trevor Bauer, and perhaps it could look to pair Bauer with a buy-low player such as James Paxton or Corey Kluber. The Angels might be looking for a buy-low candidate, anyway.

General manager Perry Minasian has his work cut out to shore up the rotation and bullpen. He began that process by acquiring Raisel Iglesias from the Cincinnati Reds, though there is more to do. Considering Roster Resource already estimates the Angels' 2021 payroll at $164 million, they might have to lean heavily on at least one veteran starter.

Kluber could be particularly appealing in this regard. Los Angeles had interest in acquiring Kluber before he was traded to the Texas Rangers last year, and the Angels could invest in the two-time AL Cy Young Award winner after he had a pair of injury-riddled seasons.

Of course, the Angels have a new front office, and Minasian is likely to be wary of Kluber's injury history. Nonetheless, the 34-year-old has major upside, and he is set to throw at a Wednesday showcase.

A diverse group of teams is expected to send scouts to Kluber's throwing session. Even the Pittsburgh Pirates will do so, per Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic.

Kluber could get plenty of interest, but the Angels' dire need could lead them to be more assertive than others—especially if they feel he can return to ace form.

Dark-Horse Candidate: Angels

All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, FanGraphs or Baseball Savant.