Bowl Projections 2020: Predictions for CFP Championship and Biggest Matchups
In a season defined by the COVID-19 pandemic, simply making it through to conference championship weekend is a massive accomplishment.
As recently as August, two of the five biggest leagues in college football weren't going to be playing this fall, and the other three were teetering on the same decision. After the SEC, ACC and Big 12 opted to play, the Big Ten and Pac-12 scrambled to make their own seasons work for fear of missing out on hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue. The former three leagues had the most success in getting their games played, largely because they had enough time to build in bye weeks for teams that might have COVID-19-related roster issues.
The Big Ten, meanwhile, had to decrease the required number of games to play in the championship game so that Ohio State, which only completed five contests during the regular season, could have a chance at making the College Football Playoff. Elsewhere in the Pac-12, Washington, the North Division champion, couldn't field a roster to play in the title game, so it was replaced by Oregon, which promptly defeated then-unbeaten USC and will now claim the league's New Year's Six bowl bid.
With that updated result from last night, here's where projections stand.
New Year's Six Bowl Games
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Chick Fil-A Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. North Carolina
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Indiana
Capital One Orange Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati
One of the more notable storylines heading into championship weekend is just how few New Year's Six contenders are playing in their league's title games. Only Cincinnati, Florida and Iowa State are playing during conference championship weekend, with Texas A&M, Georgia, North Carolina and Indiana simply sitting and waiting. And depending on what happens, some of these teams could end up out of the New Year's Six completely.
If, for example, Notre Dame beats Clemson for a second time, the Tigers could drop out of the CFP and knock North Carolina out of an NY6 game. The same goes for Indiana. If Northwestern were to upset Ohio State, the Buckeyes would almost certainly fall to the Fiesta Bowl and knock out Indiana.
That puts those teams in the peculiar position of rooting for their conference rivals, and in the Hoosiers' case, that means rooting for the team that beat them by a touchdown and nabbed their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Texas A&M and Iowa State, meanwhile, are likely the only two teams outside the top four that have a shot of getting into the CFP. If Clemson does lose again—or if it beats Notre Dame by a wide margin—one of the two could drop out of the top four, and that would make for some fireworks during the College Football Playoff Selection Show on Sunday night.
Texas A&M, if it beats Tennessee on Saturday, would be 9-1 in the SEC but would only have one Top 25 win (over Florida). And the Aggies were boat-raced by Alabama in a game that was pretty much over by halftime.
Iowa State, meanwhile, has two losses to ranked teams but also holds wins over No. 20 Texas and No. 10 Oklahoma, whom the Cyclones will meet in the Big 12 Championship Game. Another win over the Sooners would give Iowa State an impressive trio of top-20 victories. And that's where things get awfully complicated for the committee.
College Football Playoff
Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State
For the sake of brevity, this assumes that Clemson beats Notre Dame in a close one.
Clemson nearly won the first meeting without Trevor Lawrence, and it's hard to imagine a rematch with the College Football Playoff on the line wouldn't go the Tigers' way. If that's how the chips fall, and both Ohio State and Alabama take care of business, we're likely to see the Crimson Tide and Fighting Irish facing off in Atlanta and a rematch of the 2016-17 CFP semifinal with Ohio State and Clemson facing off in the Rose Bowl.
Unlike that game, which Clemson won 31-0, Ohio State's offense will play with a vengeance after being told they didn't belong in the College Football Playoff because the team played just five regular-season games. In a showdown between the likely top two picks in the 2021 NFL draft, Justin Fields and the Buckeyes come out victorious.
In what's almost a home game for Alabama, the Crimson Tide's dynamic offense will be entirely too much for Notre Dame, which relies heavily on its run game and defense to win low-scoring affairs.
College Football Playoff National Championship: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Despite Fields' best efforts, Ohio State's scorching offense can't keep pace with Mac Jones, Najee Harris and predicted Heisman winner DeVonta Smith, who roll over the Buckeyes defense in dominant fashion.
Alabama 42, Ohio State 24.