Ranking the Likelihood of MLB Rumors from Winter Meetings Actually Happening

The 2020 winter meetings were abnormal in the sense that not a lot of major activity occurred. Then again, these are abnormal times.

Sure, the Chicago White Sox made a big move for right-hander Lance Lynn, and the Los Angeles Angels traded for a premier closer in Raisel Iglesias. But the top stars remain unsigned, and the proceedings held a certain dullness.

Part of the general inactivity stemmed from the fact that everything was done virtually, instead of teams meeting with players and agents face-to-face.

Here's the other simple truth: The current market is moving slowly. New York Mets owner Steve Cohen said as much on Monday. Perhaps because of this offseason's peculiar nature, the top names appear more willing to wait for their markets to develop before reaching a decision.

Still, chatter is circulating throughout the rumor mill, and conversations had this week should set the tone for the remainder of the offseason.

The following is a ranking of some rumors from the winter meetings in terms of the likelihood these rumors will come to fruition, from most to least likely. We considered team fits and the sensibility of trade rumors, among other factors.

Sorry, Cleveland Indians fans, but Francisco Lindor won't be playing shortstop for your team next year.

The Indians have given no indication they will retain him this offseason. The 27-year-old broke off contract extensions in March, suggesting the sides were too far apart. After the Indians lost their AL Wild Card Series with the New York Yankees, Lindor told reporters the Indians could afford to re-sign him, noting they were a "billion-dollar team."

But the Indians operate like a small-market club, and USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported last month Cleveland told teams it was looking to move Lindor before Opening Day on April 1. A deal might get done far sooner than that.

Buster Olney of ESPN reported the Indians will "aggressively" field offers for their switch-hitting shortstop. 

Lindor is one of baseball's best players at a premium position. He is a legitimate five-tool guy who can hit for power, steal bases and play an elite defense. Indeed, Lindor ranks third in baseball in FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) since 2015. The next-closest shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, has been worth nearly three fewer wins in that span.

Cleveland will indeed have to listen aggressively, because it doesn't have a ton of bargaining power. Lindor will be a free agent after next season, and interested teams won't risk sending a huge package only for him to walk.

It might be best to think of Cleveland's possible return in a similar vein to what the Boston Red Sox received for Mookie Betts in February, heading into the 2018 MVP's contract year. The Red Sox got an MLB-ready player (Alex Verdugo), a top-100 prospect (Jeter Downs) and a third piece (Connor Wong) from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Still, Cleveland is motivated to move Lindor. He will play for a new club in 2021, and might even find out which one before the New Year.

Nelson Cruz has been one of baseball's best hitters for the past five seasons, but he has been especially productive in his two-year run with the Minnesota Twins.

Cruz slashed .308/.394/.626 with a 168 OPS+, clubbing 57 homers in 173 games.

The six-time All-Star also ranks second in wRC+ in the last two seasons and has showed no signs of slowing down. The 40-year-old ranked in the top 15 percent in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected slugging and barrels last year.

So, it seems only right the Twins will bring him back, right? Well, yes, they should eventually. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported, "Both parties continue to state their preference for a reunion."

Realistically, it doesn't make sense for Cruz to sign yet, as it would limit his market.

Although Hayes noted Major League Baseball sent a memo to teams suggesting there are no plans for a universal DH, that could change when the league and players union sit down to discuss the actual parameters for the 2021 season. Thus, Cruz could wait until there is a definitive DH resolution.

As Hayes stated, Cruz has waited until the last minute to sign a deal in the past. He did not ink a contract with the Baltimore Orioles until February 2014 following a 50-game suspension the year before.

Granted, some teams could move on. But the worst-case scenario for Cruz is the league indeed opts against keeping the universal DH and he is forced to take what might be a slightly more disappointing contract with the Twins. Otherwise, interest from a number of National League teams could drive up the price.

Either way, it seems likely the Twins will do what is necessary to re-sign him.

Corey Kluber is among a number of veteran starters who should receive interest from multiple clubs given the depressed nature of the starting pitching market and the timidity in doling out big-money contracts.

One executive told Olney they felt it was "inevitable" Kluber landed with the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees or New York Mets. It's probably unrealistic to suggest it is "inevitable" Kluber's market is limited to these teams, given other contenders' pitching needs.

That said, the Red Sox do seem intrigued by the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner. 

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported as much, adding the 34-year-old lives in the Greater Boston area. Rob Bradford of WEEI reported the same this week, also noting the Red Sox had "made calls on" Matt Shoemaker and showed interest in Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano.

Kluber could be the most likely target of the three, given his track record.

The former Indians ace was dominant from 2014 to 2018, winning those Cy Young Awards while finishing in the top three in two other seasons. Kluber ranked third in fWAR during that stretch, behind only Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw.

Of course, the last two years have not gone as smoothly. Kluber made just seven starts in 2019 because of injury. Cleveland dealt him to Texas, where Kluber suffered a shoulder tear in his first start and missed the year. The Rangers made the obvious decision to decline his $18 million club option.

Morosi reported Kluber was "said to be progressing well" from the injury and that he was expected to throw bullpen sessions sometime in December.

The Red Sox were last in rotation fWAR in 2020 and might not want to wait around all that long. Simultaneously, president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom is cognizant of the fact the team just got under the luxury-tax threshold, which could mean he is more likely to pursue veterans on one-year deals.

Former Red Sox left-hander Rich Hill might also be an interesting target. For now, however, Boston appears to have a certain zeal for Kluber.

Strictly speaking, anything involving the Los Angeles Angels and starting pitching should be true.

Angels starters ranked 29th in ERA last year, and that was despite a breakout campaign from Dylan Bundy.

The Julio Teheran signing proved to be an abomination (10.05 ERA), and left-hander Patrick Sandoval struggled, giving up 10 homers in 36.2 innings. Griffin Canning (3.99 ERA) and Jaime Barria (3.62 ERA) both had strong campaigns with decent peripherals, but the Halos do not want to place a large burden on a pair of 24-year-old arms. 

Indeed, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the Angels are "determined to add a top of the rotation starter." He suggested Trevor Bauer—a UCLA product and L.A. native—is the most likely target.

But will the Angels be able to afford Bauer?

The reigning NL Cy Young is sure to have a lucrative market. He is the top arm in a weak starting pitching market. Moreover, he will only be entering his age-30 season in 2021, and he might just now be hitting his peak after significantly boosting his spin rates.

Plus, the Angels might be prepared to offer a long-term deal to catcher James McCann. Robert Murray of FanSided reported Los Angeles was still in the mix for the free-agent backstop after McCann was thought to be nearing a deal to join the New York Mets.

McCann's potential annual average value is unknown, though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic estimated it could be somewhere around $10 million per season. 

That kind of contract might not necessarily preclude the Angels from signing someone like Bauer. Team owner Arte Moreno said last month payroll was not going to decrease, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, which really means it can only go up. Plus, two big contracts come off the books over the next two years in Albert Pujols and Justin Upton.

But signing McCann would still have a significant impact on the team's ability to spend elsewhere. The argument could be made the Halos need more than one starter, and even after they traded for Raisel Iglesias, there are a ton of holes in the bullpen since they non-tendered Hansel Robles, Justin Anderson, Kenyan Middleton, Mat Andriese and Hoby Milner.

Although Heyman noted trade targets like Sonny Gray or Blake Snell could also be potential options, Los Angeles might be forced to give up a top prospect such as Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh, which they have been somewhat reluctant to do in the past.

In other words, the Angels should absolutely pursue an ace. But between needs in other areas and a fairly shallow farm system, they could miss out on a top arm.

Justin Turner is the top third baseman on the market. Multiple contending teams have needs at the hot corner. Thus, it would stand to reason he is garnering plenty of interest. 

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Turner is drawing "outside interest," and it is likely at least a couple of teams could make a push to sign him away from the Dodgers.

Turner has quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball since joining L.A. in 2014. He has a .302/.382/.503 slash line in seven years with the Dodgers and also ranks 11th in wRC+ (min. 2,000 plate appearances) during that span, per FanGraphs.

Perhaps even more notably, Turner has been one the best playoff hitters of this generation. He carries a postseason slash line of .295/.392/.507, including an .849 OPS in three career World Series. Turner was especially prolific this past October, clubbing two homers and posting a 1.066 OPS in L.A.'s win over the Tampa Bay Rays.

The 36-year-old also ranks third all-time in career postseason win probability added (WPA), per Baseball Reference. Plenty of teams could use his bat and championship experience in the lineup, including a pair of NL East contenders.

The Atlanta Braves would figure to have at least some level of interest in Turner given the slow development of Austin Riley. The Washington Nationals might also be going hard after a third baseman considering Carter Kieboom's struggles in his first big league showing. Additionally, the St. Louis Cardinals could use an upgrade at the other corner, though they might not be inclined to spend in Turner's price range. 

But showing interest in Turner is one thing. Prying him away from the Dodgers is another.

The overall reporting landscape has not suggested L.A. has had a ton of contact with Turner, and it is possible the Dodgers are examining trade routes for Nolan Arenado or considering signing DJ LeMahieu.

However, as Heyman noted, Turner should be cheaper and is every bit as accomplished at the plate. The price-tag element is especially important because it would allow the Dodgers to spend on the bullpen and potentially make a splash at the back end.

About that…

The Chicago White Sox mean business this winter. 

General manager Rick Hahn was quick to pull the trigger on the Lance Lynn deal, giving the South Siders a legitimate frontline starter alongside Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel. He then signed Adam Eaton to play some right field, and Jayson Stark of The Athletic reported Chicago is still in on Michael Brantley.

The White Sox might also be after the best relief pitcher on the market.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the White Sox "have their sight set" on closer Liam Hendriks with their own closer, Alex Colome, now a free agent.

The 31-year-old has been the most dominant bullpen weapon in baseball over the last two years. His 5.2 fWAR in the last two years easily ranks first among relievers, with Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Nick Anderson's 3.0 lagging behind in second.

This past season, Hendriks posted a 1.78 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 1.14 FIP while going 14-of-15 in save opportunities and earning the Mariano Rivera American League Reliever of the Year Award in the process. 

Hendriks is sure to draw interest from other contending teams. Andy Martino of SNY.tv reported the New York Mets have interest in the Australian, and Jon Morosi reported the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies were also in on him.

In other words, the White Sox will have plenty of competition for Hendriks, who could see his price rise substantially. Chicago, of all the teams listed, probably has the least amount of incentive to give him a huge contract.

The White Sox have a wealth of young arms in the bullpen, ranging from Codi Heuer and Matt Foster to left-handers Garrett Crochet and Aaron Bummer. Right-hander Jace Fry could be another weapon if he can hone his command.

Would Hendriks make a deep Chicago bullpen better? Of course. But re-signing Colome or opting for Archie Bradley would be cheaper and might allow the White Sox to throw more dollars at Brantley or someone like Marcell Ozuna to fill the designated hitter spot. 

Finally, it is pretty easy to envision the Los Angeles Dodgers making a push for Hendriks. They are losing Blake Treinen, Pedro Baez and Jake McGee to free agency, Kenley Jansen's effectiveness seems to be waning, and the 33-year-old is also on an expiring contract.

Morosi reported the Dodgers are paying attention to Hendriks' market and, especially if they resort to slightly cheaper moves like re-signing Justin Turner, could use the remaining payroll to sign Hendriks to a multiyear contract.

The New York Mets figured to be among the most active teams this winter with billionaire and lifelong fan Steve Cohen purchasing the team and installing Sandy Alderson as team president. Alderson himself said the Mets would be "a little more aggressive" in free agency, per Colin Stephenson of Newsday. 

Indeed, New York has been active in casting a wide net. The Mets signed reliever Trevor May to a two-year deal and, as mentioned above, have interest in Liam Hendriks. 

James McCann is on their list, as well. Ken Rosenthal reported Wednesday morning the Mets were close to a four-year deal with the catcher before it became clear the Los Angeles Angels were still involved. 

Plus, the Mets are in on all the stars. Andy Martino reported New York has spoken to George Springer, Trevor Bauer and J.T. Realmuto. 

Bob Klapisch of the Newark Star-Ledger went a step further, reporting the Mets were "moving closer" to a deal with either Springer or Bauer. He added Cohen seems to prefer Springer, while Alderson is keener on signing Bauer.

Does this mean the Mets are on the cusp of landing one of these stars? No. In fact, that hardly seems to be the case.

Martino reported the Mets are "most engaged" with Springer. However, he also reported the two sides are "not currently close" from a contractual standpoint, suggesting the same can be said for New York's discussions with Bauer and Realmuto.

The reality is the stars could be willing to drag things out. Bauer's agent, Rachel Luba, even said there not a "sense of urgency to slow down the process or speed it up," per Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News, adding she and her client would prefer to speak with all interested suitors and consider all deals. 

It is possible Springer's representatives feel the same way. The star center fielder is also getting heavy interest from the Toronto Blue Jays, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, and he could hope to drive his own price up.

New York might very well end up signing one of—if not both—these stars. But suggesting the Mets are actually "moving closer" to getting either to sign on the dotted line is an exaggeration.

The New York Yankees made the biggest splash of the 2019-20 offseason when they signed Gerrit Cole to a record-breaking nine-year, $324 million contract.

But this offseason might be about retention more than anything else. The Yankees already exercised Zack Britton's option for 2022 so as to prevent him from possibly opting out this season. Plus, they figure to focus on re-signing DJ LeMahieu, though the two-time batting champion will come with a hefty price tag.

This is to say free agency could be somewhat quiet for the Bronx Bombers this year. But is it possible general manager Brian Cashman is exploring trade avenues?

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported Wednesday the Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates have had discussions regarding Bucs first baseman Josh Bell and starting pitcher Jameson Taillon. He added it is unclear as to how serious the talks are at this stage. 

It would be curious for New York to make this move. Bell was an All-Star in 2019, hitting 37 homers and driving in 116 runs while posting a .936 OPS. But his OPS fell to .669 this past season. What's more, the Yankees already have the MLB's home run champion in Luke Voit at first. Whereas Bell will be a free agent in 2023, Voit does not hit the open market until 2025.

Taillon would satisfy New York's need for starting pitching. The 29-year-old missed the entirety of the 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2019, but he has a 3.67 career ERA and posted a 3.20 ERA over 32 starts in 2018. Like Bell, Taillon will also be a free agent in 2023.

Still, a deal between the two clubs could make sense. Acquiring Bell might allow the Yankees to flip Voit for pitching—unless he were included in the deal—and Taillon has upside while likely serving as a slightly cheaper trade chip coming off surgery.

But it's simply too complicated. The Yankees are not about to give up Clarke Schmidt or Deivi Garcia, both of whom currently look like rotation fixtures for 2021 and the near future. Outside of those two and 17-year-old Jasson Dominguez, the pipeline is lacking in impact guys.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh needs young assets to jumpstart the rebuild, and it can just as easily wait to flip Bell or Taillon if they get off to strong starts in 2020.

It is a credit to Cashman for seeking alternatives to free agency, but a deal between the Yankees and Pirates seems highly unlikely.

All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, FanGraphs or Baseball Savant, unless otherwise noted.