Fantasy Football Week 13: Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

The pressure is really on now.

Week 13 marks the end of the line for the regular season in many fantasy football leagues. While some lucky ducks have already sewn up a trip to the postseason, more than a few fantasy managers have a clear mission this week.

If you want to move on, you have to get a win. It's essentially as if the playoffs have already started.

Given that their next loss will be their last one in 2020, those fantasy managers are more concerned than ever with making the right roster decisions and setting a lineup that will achieve the highest score possible. Every decision could be the one that defines the season.

It's enough to give you a headache.

Consider this column the Advil that will whisk that headache away. Every week, I survey lineup questions on the Bleacher Report app and then provide answers to assist fantasy managers in (hopefully) getting a win.

This week, that win could be the difference between playing on and calling it a year.

We'll kick off this week's Start/Sit column with a two-parter that conveniently halfway answers itself—in that two of the four calls are rather obvious.

At running back, one of the spots has to go to Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers, especially in a PPR format. In his return to action last week, Ekeler piled up 129 total yards against the Buffalo Bills. His passing-game usage seals the deal—Justin Herbert targeted the fourth-year pro a staggering 16 times.

At wide receiver, one slot belongs to A.J. Brown of the Tennessee Titans. The second-year standout has touchdowns in seven of nine games this year and faces a Cleveland Browns defense in Week 13 that ranks just outside the top 10 in PPR points allowed to the position in 2020.

In the backfield, that leaves Chris Carson of the Seattle Seahawks and Raheem Mostert of the San Francisco 49ers, two backs who made their own returns from injury a week ago. Mostert received twice as many carries (16) as Carson in Week 12, but the latter has the better fantasy matchup.

That matchup with a New York Giants team that allows the 11th-most PPR points per game to running backs in 2020 wins the day. Carson is the play.

At wide receiver, Tyler Lockett of the Seahawks hasn't had a 100-yard game and has just one touchdown since his huge outing in Week 7, while Pittsburgh's Diontae Johnson draws the second-worst fantasy matchup for wide receivers in the Washington Football Team.

It's close, but the matchup wins out here too. Roll with Lockett.

          

The Call: Austin Ekeler (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,100), Chris Carson (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,300), A.J. Brown (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,600), Tyler Lockett (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,400)

These options are…not ideal.

Still, you have to play the hand you are dealt. So away we go.

At quarterback, Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions is out. It's hard to have any faith in the Lions offense with Kenny Golladay hurt. Cam Newton of the New England Patriots offers some interesting upside given his ability to pick up yards with his legs, but he's also coming off a miserable statistical effort against the Arizona Cardinals.

Philip Rivers of the Indianapolis Colts isn't tearing it up this season, but over the past few weeks, the veteran signal-caller has quietly been solid—eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy points.

Rivers gets the nod.

In the flex spot, Tyler Boyd of the Cincinnati Bengals is awfully hard to trust heading into a rough matchup with the Miami Dolphins—especially with Brandon "Who?" Allen at quarterback. Allen Lazard found the end zone for the third time in five games last week, but he also had just four receptions for 23 yards.

Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts missed last week's loss to the Tennessee Titans, but the rookie has been activated from the COVID-19 list ahead of a matchup with a Houston Texans team that allows the second-most PPR points to running backs.

Two weeks ago against the Green Bay Packers, Taylor piled up 114 total yards on 26 touches.

         

The Call: Philip Rivers (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900), Jonathan Taylor (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700)

With the playoffs just around the corner, it's natural to reexamine your fantasy roster. You want things shipshape in a scenario where your next loss will be your last.

That can lead to anxiety about players who haven't met expectations of late.

Over the first six weeks of the 2020 season, only Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals had more fantasy points among quarterbacks than Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. However, over the last six weeks, Allen's production has tailed off—he ranks outside the top five among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game over that span.

However, there's a thin line between tweaking a lineup to ensure maximum fantasy production and overthinking things to the point you shoot yourself in the foot.

And this crosses that line.

Yes, Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings has been on a nice rip of late—the ninth-year veteran has been a top-five fantasy quarterback over the last three games. He also draws a top-three matchup for quarterbacks with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ryan Tannehill's matchup with the Cleveland Browns isn't as good, but the Tennessee Titans quarterback does have a favorable one.

But Allen still ranks inside the top five for the season, and his ability to pick up yardage with his legs can be a big plus for fantasy managers.

Dance with who brought you—both this week and once the postseason is underway.

          

The Call: Josh Allen (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,100)

Two of these receivers are easy calls. Really easy calls. Like, "start them every week no matter what" easy calls.

Keenan Allen of the Los Angeles Chargers has been targeted 12 more times than any other wide receiver in the NFL. He leads the league in receptions with 85, ranks 12th in receiving yards with 875 and sits fourth among wide receivers in PPR fantasy points.

He's in.

Allen Robinson II of the Chicago Bears is third in the league with 108 targets and 10th in PPR points. On Sunday, he and the Chicago Bears host an injury-depleted Detroit Lions secondary that was carved to pieces by Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans in Week 12.

That leaves one spot and three receivers. Tyler Boyd of the Cincinnati Bengals is a quick "no thanks" after Joe Burrow's season-ending knee injury, which brings up to a two-way call between Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings and Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers.

Samuel lit up the Los Angeles Rams for 11 catches and 133 yards on 13 targets last week. Jefferson has 18 catches for 291 yards and three scores over his past three games. Both are excellent calls as a third fantasy starter.

The tiebreaker: matchup. Samuel faces a Buffalo Bills defense that allows the 10th-fewest PPR points to receivers in 2020. Jefferson draws a Jacksonville Jaguars team that surrenders the eighth-most.

Game. Set. Match.

          

The Call: Keenan Allen (DraftKings DFS Value: $8,100), Allen Robinson II (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,700), Justin Jefferson (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,900)

As running back stables go, this isn't a bad one.

The easiest player to rule out is Kareem Hunt of the Cleveland Browns. Hunt is quite possibly the best No. 2 back in the league. But he's just that—a No. 2 back. His workload Sunday against the Tennessee Titans is the least certain of this bunch.

Antonio Gibson has the worst matchup of the lot—the Pittsburgh Steelers sit at the bottom of the AFC in PPR points allowed to running backs. But the rookie from Memphis also just exploded for 136 total yards and three scores on 25 touches last week against the Dallas Cowboys.

That kind of upside gets you in lineups.

The second spot is less certain. Raheem Mostert of the 49ers averaged less than three yards a carry in a tough matchup with the Rams last week, but he got 16 carries and found the end zone. Clyde Edwards-Helaire of the Kansas City Chiefs has shined at times, but his workload and production have varied greatly from week to week. Kenyan Drake of the Arizona Cardinals has averaged less than four yards a carry the past two games, but he's also got three touchdowns over that span.

None of those backs has a matchup that would set him apart, so we'll take the hotter hand—and poor YPC aside, that's Drake.

        

The Call: Antonio Gibson (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,800), Kenyan Drake (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700)

This is the sort of question that annoys me—in that this fantasy manager has better flex options than some of my choices at running back.

It's been a rough year.

My pettiness aside, James White of the New England Patriots is the easiest scratch. Rex Burkhead's injury opened up more touches for White, but he still has just 17 over the past two games.

Nyheim Hines of the Indianapolis Colts flirted with 100 total yards on 18 touches in Week 12. But that was with Jonathan Taylor on the COVID-19 list. Taylor has been activated and appears set to return against Houston this week, which could eat into that workload Sunday. Pass.

D'Andre Swift of the Detroit Lions appears to be trending toward a Week 13 return after missing time with a concussion. But the Lions face a Chicago Bears defense that has surrendered the ninth-fewest PPR points to running backs.

That leaves Chicago's David Montgomery. He was one of the few bright spots for the Bears last week, amassing 143 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches. The Lions have had all kinds of trouble stopping the run this season, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game and the most PPR points in the league to running backs.

He's the guy here.

          

The Call: David Montgomery (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,500)

Quite a few fantasy managers face this situation in Week 13. Win and play on. Lose and the season's over.

No pressure.

The running back call is easy. There hasn't been a bigger surprise at the running back position in 2020 than James Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went from undrafted free agent and fantasy afterthought to third in the NFL in rushing and fourth in PPR points among running backs.

He has earned every-week starter status, regardless of matchup.

The flex spot is trickier. James Conner may not clear the COVID-19 list ahead of this week's game with Washington, and even if he does, the WFT has surrendered the third-fewest PPR points to running backs.

Darrell Henderson Jr. of the Los Angeles Rams has had the occasional moment this season. But of late, rookie Cam Akers has been the team's most effective back, casting doubt on Henderson's workload.

Duke Johnson of the Texans has been mostly ineffective as Houston's lead back with David Johnson out. The latter Johnson may return in Week 13, so the former is a definite fade.

That leaves Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys. Elliott has been a major disappointment for fantasy managers in 2020 and gets a tough matchup with the Baltimore Ravens. But the carries (and potentially) goal-line looks will be there.

         

The Call: James Robinson (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,300), Ezekiel Elliott (DraftKings DFS Value: N/A)

The Week 13 bye is a pain for fantasy managers. With Tampa Bay and Carolina on siesta this week, folks in a must-win situation are short Tom Brady. And Mike Evans. And Chris Godwin. And Ronald Jones II. And Robby Anderson. And DJ Moore.

Philip Rivers of the Colts has been decent of late, averaging just under 300 yards and two touchdowns a game over the past few weeks.

As mentioned, the Vikings' Kirk Cousins has also been warm—two straight games with over 300 passing yards, three touchdown strikes and no picks.

Taysom Hill of the New Orleans Saints didn't even clear 100 passing yards in Week 12, but he scored two rushing touchdowns for the second week in a row. Against the same Falcons team New Orleans faces in Week 13, Hill tallied 282 total yards and two touchdowns in Week 11.

Hill's modest passing numbers last week rule him out, even against a Falcons team that surrenders the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Texans are a middling matchup for quarterbacks, so Rivers is a pass as well.

That leaves Cousins against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that gives up the third-most points per game to the position.

The Vikings are clinging to playoff hopes, so they will pull out all the stops at home Sunday.

        

The Call: Kirk Cousins (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,400)

Letting the big dogs eat with this query.

The question is which big dog will eat the most.

Of the group, Alvin Kamara of the Saints offers the most matchup information, given that New Orleans and Atlanta played in Week 11. Unfortunately, Kamara's recent slump continued to that contest as well. The fourth-year pro scored a touchdown but had just 13 carries for 45 yards and didn't catch a pass.

Austin Ekeler of the Chargers had a big game last week—25 touches for 129 yards. His passing-game usage comes in handy in a PPR format like DraftKings. But the New England Patriots are far from a great matchup, and you can bet the rent that Bill Belichick will devise a game plan in which Ekeler doesn't catch 11 passes.

Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers has the ability to go off in any game. But Jones hasn't hit 100 rushing yards in a game since all the way back in Week 2, and this week's opponent (the Philadelphia Eagles) has allowed the fourth-fewest DK points to running backs.

It's fitting in 2020 that the "winner" is a player no one had heard of in July. James Robinson has been productive. He has been consistent—three 100-yard rushing games in three of the last five weeks and over 90 total yards all five times.

There's a reason Robinson has the highest price tag of this quartet in Week 13.

        

The Call: James Robinson (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,300)

We'll close out the Week 13 edition of Start/Sit the same way we always do—by hitting the accelerator and cranking out answers to app questions rapid-fire.

Have more Week 13 lineup questions? Leave them in the comments. I try to spend at least a few hours there every Friday and Saturday to assist readers in setting their lineups.

                  

jawaanflythe has a running back question: "Melvin Gordon or Kareem Hunt?"

More weeks than not this year, Kareem Hunt of the Browns has been a good flex option. But he's the clear No. 2 to Nick Chubb with an uncertain carry-share. With Phillip Lindsay likely out in Week 13, Melvin Gordon III (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,100) of the Denver Broncos should see a full-time workload Sunday night against the Kansas City Chiefs.

        

For jaguarsfan904, it's a flex query: "[J.K.] Dobbins, [Wayne] Gallman or Diontae Johnson?"

With J.K. Dobbins on the COVID-19 list, his Week 13 status is iffy at best. In situations like this, I generally favor running backs and their increased touches, so Johnson is a pass as well. That leaves New York Giants running back Wayne Gallman (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700), who has six touchdowns over the last five weeks and at least one score in all five games over that stretch.

        

It's a two-parter for sam_s: "Is Antonio Gibson a bust this week? Also [Kirk] Cousins or [Ryan] Tannehill?"

Washington's Antonio Gibson (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,800) is a hard player to sit after his huge game against the Cowboys, but he does have a brutal Week 13 matchup against the Steelers in Week 13. He's more RB2 than RB1 this week. At quarterback, Kirk Cousins (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,400) of the Vikings appears to be a popular fellow this week. He's hot and has a top-five matchup and more fantasy upside this week than Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill.

        

JacksonEllis is worried he's losing his marbles: "Is it crazy to be debating between Deshaun Watson and Tannehill?"

In a word? Yes. Deshaun Watson (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,500) of the Houston Texans admittedly has a bottom-five fantasy matchup with the Indianapolis Colts and just lost top wideout Will Fuller to suspension. But he's also coming off a 318-yard, four-score effort against the Detroit Lions and has a much higher fantasy ceiling than Tannehill in a matchup with the Cleveland Browns that should feature a ton of Derrick Henry.

        

Back to the flex spot for buddahman07: "Marvin Jones, [Allen] Lazard or [Zack] Moss?"

Again, normally I'd lean toward the running back, but Zack Moss of the Buffalo Bills took a back seat to Devin Singletary in the Buffalo backfield last week and draws a tough matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. That brings us to a pair of secondary receivers in Detroit's Marvin Jones Jr. and Green Bay's Allen Lazard (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000). The tiebreaker here is the quarterbacks who'll throw them the ball, and last I checked, Aaron Rodgers trumps Matthew Stafford.

        

jaadams7 is searching for running back help: "Should I start [Myles] Gaskin or [Raheem] Mostert in full PPR?"

Myles Gaskin of the Miami Dolphins hasn't played since Week 8, but it's tentatively believed he'll be activated from injured reserve ahead of a Week 13 matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. Raheem Mostert (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200) of the 49ers doesn't have as good a matchup against Buffalo, but at least we know he's healthy. Mostert is the safer play in Week 13.

        

Finally, it's a wide receiver question for bryandawson: "[Tyler] Boyd, [Jakobi] Meyers, [Nelson] Agholor. Pick one PPR."

We have already ruled out Tyler Boyd of the Bengals a couple of times because of the quarterback situation in Cincinnati, and this is no different. Jakobi Meyers of the New England Patriots has been OK in PPR formats, but not much more than that. That brings us to Nelson Agholor (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,200) of the Las Vegas Raiders, who has touchdown catches in six of 11 games and a plus matchup with a bad Jets secondary.

          

DFS player salaries courtesy of DraftKings. Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday. Fantasy points per game against data courtesy of My Fantasy League.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year.

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