Bowl Predictions 2020: CFP Projections Heading into Week 14

Bowl Predictions 2020: CFP Projections Heading into Week 14
Edit
1Sugar Bowl (January 1): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
Edit
2Rose Bowl (January 1): No. 2 Clemson vs, No. 3 Ohio State
Edit
3New Year's 6
Edit

Bowl Predictions 2020: CFP Projections Heading into Week 14

Nov 30, 2020

Bowl Predictions 2020: CFP Projections Heading into Week 14

The second College Football Playoff ranking is not expected to change at all at the top.

The Alabama Crimson Tide, Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Clemson Tigers won in convincing fashion on Friday and Saturday to reinforce their positions. 

Alabama appears to be the front-runner to land the No. 1 overall seed, which would likely come with a berth in the Sugar Bowl on January 1. 

Nick Saban's side still has to beat the Florida Gators in the SEC Championship Game, but the Tide should be more than prepared for that showdown.

Notre Dame and Clemson are on a collision course for the ACC Championship Game. The winner should qualify for the playoff, and if Clemson wins the rematch, both teams could advance to the national semifinals. 

The Ohio State Buckeyes should remain at No. 4 after cancelling their Week 13 matchup with the Illinois Fighting Illini.

If Ohio State misses another contest, it would not be eligible for the Big Ten Championship Game, but it may still land in the playoff. 

The Big Ten's case to put a team other than Ohio State in the playoff fell apart on Saturday when the Northwestern Wildcats suffered their first loss. 

Sugar Bowl (January 1): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame

Alabama has won each of its games by at least 10 points. 

Its latest blowout win occurred in the Iron Bowl on Saturday, as it took down the Auburn Tigers 42-13. 

There are few, if any, defenses that are capable of stopping Alabama's three stars: quarterback Mac Jones, running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith. 

The LSU Tigers do not fall under that category, which means Alabama should cruise to another double-digit victory on Saturday to solidify its spot atop the SEC West. 

The sixth-ranked Florida Gators held their last two opponents under 20 points, but the Kentucky Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores are viewed as two of the worst offenses in the conference. 

In Florida's two ranked matchups, it allowed 69 points to the Texas A&M Aggies and Georgia Bulldogs. If Dan Mullen's team allows 20-30 points against Alabama, it may lead to Alabama clinching the top seed.

Notre Dame could face a similar issue in the ACC Championship Game, if it concedes 40 points to Clemson again. 

Clemson's defense got better on Saturday with the return of a few starters, and it has the potential to slow down Ian Book and Kyren Williams. 

Notre Dame has two more tune-ups in place against the Syracuse Orange and Wake Forest Demon Deacons that can help its defense improve ahead of the meeting with Trevor Lawrence and Co. 

But if Clemson continues to roll on both sides of the ball, it could be in great shape to win the rematch.

With the number of undefeated teams dropping again in Week 13, the Irish should be safe to make the playoff if their only loss is to a team they already beat. 

Rose Bowl (January 1): No. 2 Clemson vs, No. 3 Ohio State

Clemson made the necessary improvements on defense on Saturday to show it can stop Notre Dame on December 19.

The Tigers forced three turnovers in the opening quarter and held the Pittsburgh Panthers to 17 points. The total would have been lower if Pitt did not convert a Lawrence fumble into a score.

Clemson is the best one-loss team in the country, and it could keep that title if it thrives against Notre Dame in three weeks. 

With Tyler Davis and James Skalski back, the Clemson front seven carries more tenacity, and that could be the key to putting more pressure on Book and limiting Williams' big-play potential.

If Clemson's defense continues to improve against the Virginia Tech Hokies on Saturday, Lawrence should be in position to throw for over 300 yards and create at least 15-20 points of separation on the scoreboard.

Virginia Tech conceded 47 points in its most-recent loss to Pitt and allowed over 25 points in four of its five defeats. 

Clemson and Ohio State could be set for a national semifinal rematch, even if the Buckeyes do not play in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

Big Ten Network's Dave Revsine noted that 12 of the upcoming 14 Big Ten matchups have to be cancelled for the Championship Game threshold to drop beneath six games. That is relevant to Ohio State if one of its next two games are cancelled. 

There is a scenario in which Ohio State plays and wins one of those games and then faces the Wisconsin Badgers in a crossover game on the same day as the Big Ten Championship Game. 

If Ryan Day's team wins out, it should have the upper hand on either the Northwestern Wildcats or Indiana Hoosiers, who would be on track to meet in Indianapolis if Ohio State fails to reach the threshold. 

That situation may have been different if Northwestern was undefeated, but that is no longer in play after it fell to the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday.

New Year's 6

Cotton Bowl (December 30): Iowa State vs. Texas A&M

Peach Bowl (January 1): Georgia vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl (January 2): Indiana vs. USC

Orange Bowl (January 2): Miami vs. Florida

Northwestern's loss opened the door for the Texas A&M Aggies and Cincinnati Bearcats to sneak into the playoff. 

The Wildcats would have made a strong case to reach the national semifinals if they won all of their regular-season games and upset Ohio State on December 19.

Instead, they became the latest program to play itself out of playoff and even New Year's Six contention. The Oregon Ducks fell into that category as well in Week 13. 

For now, Texas A&M and Cincinnati are safely locked into New Year's Six bowls as long as they win out. A playoff scenario could emerge if Alabama beats Florida and Notre Dame knocks off Clemson.

In that scenario, Clemson and Florida would be handed their second losses and the committee would not have a Big 12 or Pac-12 champion to fill that position. 

The dilemma facing the committee in that scenario is if it should give Texas A&M a rematch with an Alabama team that it lost by 28 to in the second week of the SEC season. 

Texas A&M's SEC status may outweigh that factor since the committee has a history of not valuing Group of Five programs.

However, an undefeated Cincinnati squad with a conference championship and at least three ranked victories may persuade the committee to break that trend. 

At minimum, Cincinnati should qualify as the best Group of Five team for the New Year's Six, which could pit it against a SEC program. 

With Georgia ranked at No. 9 last week, the SEC should put the Bulldogs, Texas A&M and Florida in the New Year's Six if Alabama and Clemson win on December 19.

       

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com

Display ID
2920271
Primary Tag