Ranking the Chances for Every MLB Team to Land Masahiro Tanaka in Free Agency

The New York Yankees paid a $20 million posting fee to sign Masahiro Tanaka away from the Rakuten Golden Eagles prior to his age-25 season in 2014 and then inked him to a seven-year, $155 million contract.

All things considered, it was money well spent.

Tanaka went 78-46 with a 3.74 ERA (114 ERA+), 1.13 WHIP and 991 strikeouts in 1,054.1 innings over the life of that contract, earning two All-Star selections and going 5-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 10 postseason starts.

Now he is a free agent once again, and in a thin market behind National League Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer, he will likely generate interest from a number of teams.

At 32 years old, he should still have several productive years left in the tank, though he does have 2,384.1 professional innings on his arm with his seven seasons in Japan.

MLB Trade Rumors predicted he would receive a three-year, $39 million contract this offseason, ranking him as the No. 10 player in this year's free-agent class. The only starters ahead of him were Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman, and the latter two accepted qualifying offers from the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants before even reaching free agency.

The Yankees are expected to make a serious push to retain Tanaka, but with so many teams vying for so few quality starting pitchers, a return is far from guaranteed. Odds are he'll prioritize signing with a contender given his age and the fact that he has yet to win a World Series, but he has made no indication that is a top priority.

With free agency underway, let's look at how all 30 teams stack up as landing spots for Tanaka based on their financial flexibility, roster needs and status as contenders.

30. Pittsburgh Pirates

Unless you're a fringe major leaguer with no other MLB offers on the table, there's really no reason to sign with the Pirates. There's a real chance things are going to get worse before they get better, and that's saying something after a 19-41 season.

29. Colorado Rockies

Setting aside the fact that the Rockies are far more likely to finish in the National League West cellar than they are to be playoff contenders, there's a reason the market's top pitchers generally steer clear of playing their home games at Coors Field.

28. Baltimore Orioles

In eight career starts at Camden Yards, Tanaka has a 5.00 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 45 innings. It's already unlikely he would consider the Orioles given their proximity to contention, and his struggles in their home ballpark is one more reason to cross them off the list.

27. Kansas City Royals

Tanaka would be a nice veteran leader on a young pitching staff, but it's unlikely he'll be willing to sign on to the early stages of a rebuild. It's going to be a few years still before the Royals are ready to make a push up the standings.

26. Detroit Tigers

If the Tigers are going to make a free-agency splash to try to jump-start their climb back toward contention, it would make more sense to splurge on a hitter who will age well rather than a starter on the wrong side of 30 with significant mileage on his arm.

25. Arizona Diamondbacks

The five-year, $85 million contract the D-backs gave Madison Bumgarner last offseason already looks like a mistake. There's no reason to double down as they ponder the best way to retool the roster.

24. Seattle Mariners

The Mariners would undoubtedly benefit from adding Tanaka to a starting rotation with plenty of question marks behind ace Marco Gonzales. However, until some of their young talent breaks through and they start to move up the American League West standings, it will be hard for them to attract top-tier free-agent talent.

23. Cleveland Indians

A cost-conscious front office is not going to shell out the kind of money it will take to sign Tanaka. If Cleveland does, it will likely be for a power-hitting corner outfielder or a replacement for Francisco Lindor at shortstop since the starting rotation remains a strength despite all its recent trades.

22. Texas Rangers

A one-two punch of Lance Lynn and Tanaka sounds intriguing, but it's far more likely Lynn will be elsewhere before the offseason is over. The Rangers have been treading water since their last playoff appearance in 2016, and a full-blown rebuild is overdue.

21. Oakland Athletics

The Athletics have several key players from last year's roster entering free agency, including closer Liam Hendriks, shortstop Marcus Semien, deadline addition Tommy La Stella, left fielder Robbie Grossman and setup relievers Joakim Soria and Yusmeiro Petit. Re-signing or replacing those players will be the focus, making a run at Tanaka unlikely.

20. Washington Nationals

With well over $90 million in 2021 salary tied up in Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, and a sputtering offense behind Juan Soto and Trea Turner, it seems unlikely the Nationals will spend big on a starting pitcher. Expect them to go bargain hunting to round out the staff.

19. San Francisco Giants

The Giants have a ton of money coming off the books at the end of the 2021 season, so it's not out of the question to think they could make a few big moves in anticipation of that flexibility. Upgrading the rotation behind Kevin Gausman would make sense, but this might not be the right fit for Tanaka, as the team is still a few years from contention.

18. Atlanta Braves

The Braves have already added Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly this offseason to go along with incumbents Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright and eventually a healthy Mike Soroka. That doesn't guarantee they are finished with starting pitchers, but a Tanaka addition seems far less likely than it might have been a few weeks ago.

17. Los Angeles Dodgers

What do the Dodgers really need? A few bullpen arms are a must, they'll have to replace the versatile Enrique Hernandez if he is not re-signed, and Joc Pederson's potential departure would leave room for a left-handed hitting fourth outfielder. The starting rotation looks set, though, with Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias and David Price vying for five spots.

16. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers' need for starting pitching is nothing new. In fact, an argument could be made that their rotation is better off than it has been in years with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff locked in to the top two spots. They have money to spend with Ryan Braun off the books, but they generally peruse the bargain bin.

15. Miami Marlins

The trio of Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and Sixto Sanchez has given Marlins fans plenty of reason for optimism on the pitching side of things. It also makes a free-agency splurge on a starting pitcher less likely given the team's other needs. If it spends, it will likely be on a middle-of-the-order bat.

14. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are one of the tougher teams to peg this offseason. Are they going to re-sign Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright? If they let them walk, would that money be used to upgrade an offense that struggled in 2020? The decision to decline the option on Kolten Wong seemed to signal they were trimming payroll, but don't rule them out given their status as a win-now club.

13. Cincinnati Reds

If Trevor Bauer walks and the Reds turn to free agency to replace him, Tanaka could be near the top of their list. However, following a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that they are open to trading Sonny Gray, it's unclear exactly what direction they are heading. That uncertainty could make it tough to attract top-tier free agents.

12. San Diego Padres

Even with Mike Clevinger out for next season and Garrett Richards departing in free agency, the Padres still have a solid starting rotation in place with Adrian Morejon and Joey Lucchesi behind Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack and Zach Davies. They could look to add depth, or they could leave a clear path for MacKenzie Gore.

11. New York Mets

The Mets are giving off the impression they are aiming a bit higher than Tanaka, but stealing him away from the Yankees would be a welcome consolation prize if they whiff on some of their top targets. A rotation of Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson and eventually a healthy Noah Syndergaard could still use one more quality arm.

10. Tampa Bay Rays

The departure of Charlie Morton left a hole in the Rays rotation but freed $15 million in payroll. With financial losses pointed to as the reason for reportedly shopping Blake Snell, they could just put that money toward operating costs, but a short-term deal with Tanaka would effectively fill that void on the staff. For the record, Tanaka is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 21 career starts against the Rays, including 5-3 with a 3.95 ERA and 8.5 K/9 in 10 starts at Tropicana Field.

9. Minnesota Twins

The Twins have Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda slotted in the first three spots in their rotation, but the other two gigs are up for grabs. Maeda and Tanaka have known each other since they were kids in Japan, so the opportunity to play together could be in Minnesota's favor if it decides to make a serious run at signing the latter.

Are the Chicago Cubs rebuilding or gearing up for one final run with their core before facing some tough decisions next offseason?

If it's the latter, Tanaka would be an intriguing target to join Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks at the top of a rotation that stands to lose Jon Lester, Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood via free agency.

Alec Mills and Adbert Alzolay showed enough potential to be in the mix for rotation spots, but the front office still needs to add at least one more proven arm if Chicago aims to contend in 2021.

The Cubs may be more inclined to take a run at some of the market's low-cost bounce-back arms, but signing Tanaka can't be ruled out—especially given the uncertainty of the team's direction.

The Boston Red Sox would love nothing more than to sign Tanaka away from a rival team that memorably snatched Johnny Damon and Jacoby Ellsbury in free agency.

With Chris Sale working his way back from Tommy John surgery and Eduardo Rodriguez sidelined for all of 2020 with COVID-19 complications, the rotation needs a boost.

Nathan Eovaldi had a nice bounce-back season, and Tanner Houck debuted with a 0.53 ERA in three starts, but the Sox would still benefit greatly from at least one more proven option.

Does Tanaka view Boston as a contender?

The Houston Astros' once vaunted starting rotation is a shell of what it was a few years ago with Gerrit Cole in New York, Justin Verlander out following Tommy John surgery and Zack Greinke posting a 4.03 ERA in 12 starts in 2020.

On a positive note, Framber Valdez broke out in a big way in 2020, while Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy also look capable of holding down starting roles going forward.

More change is coming to the roster with George Springer and Michael Brantley potentially walking in free agency and Carlos Correa set to test the waters next offseason, but that doesn't mean Houston is ready to close its contention window.

There has been no love lost between the Yankees and Astros since Houston's sign-stealing scheme was revealed, and that could be too much for Tanaka to overlook. Otherwise, this fit makes a lot of sense on paper.

The Philadelphia Phillies spent big to add Zack Wheeler to the starting staff last offseason, giving the talented right-hander a five-year, $118 million contract.

Aaron Nola is still the unquestioned ace of the staff, Zach Eflin had a solid year with a 3.39 FIP and 70 strikeouts in 59 innings, and Spencer Howard has frontline potential despite a rocky debut. The team could still use at least one more quality starter, though, and has money to spend after declining Jake Arrieta's club option.

For a team built to win now with a ton of money tied up in its core, Tanaka could be the perfect target to stabilize the starting rotation. The question is whether he will be a priority target for a front office looking to retain J.T. Realmuto and searching for another bat.

The Toronto Blue Jays are seemingly in on everyone this offseason as they look to take the next step with an exciting young core on the heels of a 32-28 season that landed them in the postseason sooner than expected.

Even after re-signing Robbie Ray to a one-year, $8 million contract, the rotation is still shaky at best behind ace Hyun Jin Ryu, who was last offseason's prized addition.

Ross Stripling and Tanner Roark are veteran options to fill out the back of the staff, and the organization will be hoping for a step forward from top prospect Nate Pearson after he struggled with his command before landing on the injured list.

One thing appears certain: The Blue Jays are not done adding significant pieces.

The Los Angeles Angels should be all in on Trevor Bauer after whiffing in their pursuit of Gerrit Cole last offseason and then again struggling to field a competitive rotation.

After Bauer, there's a steep drop-off in the starting pitching talent pool on this year's market, and Tanaka might be the most attractive fallback plan.

Guys such as James Paxton, Taijuan Walker and Garrett Richards may offer more upside, but the stability Tanaka would provide to the Angels while slotting in alongside Dylan Bundy could prove invaluable to a team bordering on desperation.

The Chicago White Sox plugged one big hole in their rotation last offseason when they signed Dallas Keuchel to a three-year, $55.5 million contract. The veteran left-hander joined Lucas Giolito to form one of the best one-two punches in baseball.

Behind that duo, Dylan Cease and Dane Dunning showed promise, but the No. 5 starter spot was a revolving door. Finding a solid option appears to be Chicago's most glaring need this offseason, with upgrading right field and sorting out the closer's role also on the to-do list.

The return of Michael Kopech could go a long way toward answering the rotation question, but a team with title aspirations will likely be searching for more certainty.

The White Sox have rapidly become an attractive destination, and Tanaka could be viewed as the missing piece—especially if Trevor Bauer can't be lured to the South Side.

In the end, the most likely place for Tanaka to go is nowhere.

He has spent the first seven seasons of his MLB career in pinstripes, and the Yankees have every reason to make sure he continues donning their uniform in the years to come.

"Tanaka has been fantastic for us. He has really impacted us in a positive way," general manager Brian Cashman told reporters in October.

Even after he struggled in the postseason, he's still a better option to fill the No. 2 starter spot behind Gerrit Cole than anyone on the roster.

Luis Severino could return to that level, but it's by no means guaranteed. The same is true of Domingo German if he's welcomed back to the team and Clarke Schmidt and Deivi Garcia if they seize rotation spots.

The Yankees are trying to win a World Series, and bringing back Tanaka would eliminate one question mark on a starting staff that is filled with them.

Expect them to get a deal done.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.