Bowl Projections 2020: CFP Predictions After Latest Rankings

The official College Football Playoff rankings won't be released for the first time until Nov. 24, but that won't stop the speculation, especially after Clemson's 47-40 overtime loss to No. 4 Notre Dame last weekend. 

The loss dropped the top-ranked Tigers to No. 4 in both the Associated Press and Coaches polls, while the Fighting Irish leapt past Ohio State into the No. 2 spot, and Alabama ascended to No. 1. 

Meanwhile, upstart Group of Five programs BYU and Cincinnati are in contention for a New Year's Six spot, but both would need a lot of luck to get into the top four.  

Who wouldn't love a good matchup of former Big 12 foes? The Sooners took themselves out of playoff contention early with back-to-back losses to Kansas State and Iowa State, but after beating Texas in the Red River Shootout, they control their own destiny the rest of the way. A showdown with in-state rival No. 14 Oklahoma State awaits next weekend, but if OU can win out, a berth in Dallas is almost certain. 

For the Aggies, a path into the College Football Playoff seems unlikely at this point, despite being ranked No. 5 in the most recent AP poll. They were blown out by Alabama, and their schedule the rest of the way isn't exactly daunting. If Notre Dame loses during the regular season or Clemson falls again, then it's a different conversation. But without a chance to get into the SEC championship game, A&M is going to need a few things to fall its way. 

In a normal season, Miami would be leading the ACC Coastal Division and on its way to a potential berth in the conference championship game against Clemson. But with the league scrapping its divisions and adding Notre Dame this season, it's likely the Canes will be on the outside looking in, as the Irish and Tigers are set for a rematch to determine if one or both go to the College Football Playoff. 

Meanwhile, the Bearcats have been nothing short of dominant in the American this season, and they appear poised to make their first New Year's Six game since the playoff format was adopted. There's still an outside chance they could sneak into the playoff, but with a weaker schedule than every one of its Power Five counterparts, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which Cincinnati leapfrogs Florida, Texas A&M, and potentially Notre Dame. 

The Badgers have played only one game because of COVID-19 issues, but they have looked impressive in a limited sample. The Badgers only have five more regular-season games because of the cancellations—and potentially the Big Ten Championship if they can a) play them all and b) win out. Indiana is the most impressive team remaining on the schedule, and that matchup on Dec. 5 could well determine if the Badgers play for the Big Ten title. 

The Ducks, too, have played just a single game, and they only have five remaining—all winnable—on their schedule before the Pac-12 championship game. They've already played Stanford this season and won't play another top-25 team until a potential matchup with USC in the conference title game.

Even more so than Cincinnati, BYU has been the surprise of the Group of Five this season. As an independent, the Cougars had to basically rebuild their schedule from scratch when most of the Power Five leagues went to conference-only slates. Quarterback Zach Wilson is a legitimate Heisman contender, and the only thing keeping BYU from a likely berth in the New Year's Six are games against San Diego State and North Alabama, both of which they'll be heavily favored in. 

The Gators, like Texas A&M, are just outside the College Football Playoff looking in. Their recent dismantling of Georgia was impressive, but they'll likely need to win out and then beat Alabama in the SEC Championship to get into the playoff. Not impossible, but not exactly likely, either. 

Each of the four remaining teams—Clemson, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Alabama—controls its own fate. Win out, and they're in the College Football Playoff. If not, things get a little more interesting.

That's especially true in the case of the Fighting Irish. They knocked off Clemson last weekend and ascended into the No. 2 spot in the polls, but the teams will almost certainly meet again in the ACC Championship, and this time, the Tigers will have Trevor Lawrence. Even if Notre Dame loses, it's hard to see the playoff committee punishing them that harshly for a loss to a full-strength Clemson squad. Instead, the teams will likely just flip spots and opponents. 

For Alabama, it's simple. The Crimson Tide simply have to win the rest of their games—a doable task—and win the SEC title game, which will likely be against Florida. 

The aforementioned scenario is Clemson's only legitimate shot at returning to the CFP. If they lose another regular-season game or fail to knock off Notre Dame, hello New Year's Six. With Lawrence back under center, it's pretty hard to see that happening, though. We won't write Clemson in Sharpie, but pencil will do. 

Ohio State, meanwhile, has a similar path to Alabama, albeit with fewer total games played. A showdown with No. 10 Indiana is the Buckeyes' toughest regular-season game left, and there's the potential meeting with No. 13 Wisconsin for the Big Ten title. Barring any catastrophic injuries, it's tough to imagine Justin Fields won't be leading them on to the field in the College Football Playoff again.

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