Week 9 NFL Picks: Odds Predictions and Top Prop Bets for Full Schedule
Christian McCaffrey's return to the gridiron will be intriguing from a few perspectives.
The No. 1 overall pick in a majority of fantasy football leagues should contribute to teams that were without him since Week 3. McCaffrey also carries value on the player prop market, as his projected rushing yard total is as low as it will likely be for the rest of the season.
Although the Carolina Panthers' matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs may appear tough on paper, the AFC West squad has been susceptible to conceding high rushing totals this season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers should be on the right end of the most lopsided Week 9 matchup. With that in mind, it is worth targeting JuJu Smith-Schuster and others on the prop market against the Dallas Cowboys defense.
Smith-Schuster's uptick in production over the past two games, combined with a decent receiving yard projection, gives him the best value of any Pittsburgh player on the board.
Week 9 Schedule and Odds
Sunday, November 8
Baltimore (-1.5) at Indianapolis (1 p.m., CBS) (Over/Under: 48)
Denver at Atlanta (-4) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 49)
Detroit at Minnesota (-3.5) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 51.5)
Houston (-6.5) at Jacksonville (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 49.5)
Carolina at Kansas City (-10) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 51.5)
Chicago at Tennessee (-6.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 47)
New York Giants at Washington (-2.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 43.5)
Seattle (-3) at Buffalo (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 55)
Las Vegas (-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (4:05 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 52.5)
Miami at Arizona (-5) (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 49.5)
Pittsburgh (-14.5) at Dallas (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 44)
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-4.5) (8:20 p.m., NBC) (O/U: 50.5)
Monday, November 9
New England (-9.5) at New York Jets (8:15 p.m., ESPN) (O/U: 41.5)
All Times ET. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards (Over 50.5)
McCaffrey will be on the active 53-man roster Sunday for the first time since he suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 2.
Because of the unknowns regarding his workload, McCaffrey's rushing yard prop sits at 50.5 yards, which is a total you likely will not get for the Panthers running back for the rest of the season.
Carolina head coach Matt Rhule noted Mike Davis will receive some touches, so the likelihood of McCaffrey reaching the 100-yard mark seems low.
"I want to see Mike Davis continue to play and continue to play at a high level," Rhule said, per Myles Simmons of the team website. "So there will be a football part to that where we have two guys we know we can win with. But at the same time, there'd have to be a conversation with the medical people."
McCaffrey may not need a ton of touches to hit the over on his rushing prop since the Chiefs allowed six of their eight opponents this season to run for more than 100 rushing yards.
In their first three home games, the Chiefs conceded 447 ground yards to the Houston Texans, New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders. They held the New York Jets to 93 rushing yards in Week 8, but that is not much of an accomplishment.
If McCaffrey breaks loose for one or two long runs and earns positive gains on his other carries, he could hit the 50-yard mark while splitting carries with Davis.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards (Over 52.5)
Pittsburgh's favorable matchup on the road against Dallas will make it one of the most popular teams to target for prop bets and daily fantasy football lineups.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is coming off a two-game run in which he was targeted on 20 occasions by Ben Roethlisberger. In those contests, Smith-Schuster averaged 76 receiving yards per game. He could increase that average versus Dallas' porous secondary.
The Cowboys conceded more than 300 total yards to seven of their first eight opponents this year, and they have not held a single team under 20 points.
In their past three games, the Cowboys allowed at least one opposing receiver to put up more than 60 yards.
The Arizona Cardinals' Christian Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins both eclipsed 70 yards in Week 6, Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas combined for 150 receiving yards for the Washington Football Team in Week 7 and Travis Fulgham produced 78 receiving yards in the Philadelphia Eagles' Week 8 victory over the Cowboys.
If Smith-Schuster receives his typical share of targets, he could run up his yardage total on the Cowboys and lead the Steelers to a fairly easy victory.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.
Predictions against the spread in bold.
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