Why the Las Vegas Raiders Should Still Have High Hopes in AFC Playoff Race

Before their bye week, the Las Vegas Raiders made one giant leap forward—but they took a significant step backward Sunday.

The Raiders went into Week 6 with so much momentum after a road win over the Kansas City Chiefs, which seemingly set the team up for a confident run in its last 11 games. Yet Vegas ran out of gas at home in the fourth quarter in Week 7, giving up 21 points in the final 7:22 of regulation.

Despite two weeks of preparation, the Raiders had the deck stacked against them. Right tackle Trent Brown was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and he had direct contact with fellow starting offensive linemen Kolton Miller, Denzelle Good, Rodney Hudson and Gabe Jackson and safety Johnathan Abram.

Aside from Brown, the linemen suited up after five days of isolation and negative test results. Abram wasn't cleared to play because he had direct contact Tuesday, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Miller acknowledged the line had some communication issues against the Buccaneers, which led to some mistakes, but head coach Jon Gruden pointed to the pass rush as a major issue.

At 3-3, the Raiders stand at a crossroads. Though they couldn't measure up to the Buccaneers, this team should keep its playoff hopes high for multiple reasons. Let's break down the positives as we look ahead.

Let's make something crystal clear: Derek Carr isn't in any danger of losing his starting job to Marcus Mariota. Remove him from your list of quarterbacks on the hot seat.

This season, Carr has played far better than his stretch from 2017 to 2019. He's provided 2016 vibes, back when he earned MVP mentions. The seventh-year pro is on pace to eclipse 4,600 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. His passer rating (112.8) and QBR (80.6) are career highs.

Often criticized for his conservative arm and excessive checkdowns, Carr has taken more shots downfield with wideouts Nelson Agholor and rookie first-rounder Henry Ruggs III on the perimeter. His intended air yards per pass attempt have gone up from 6.6 last year to 7.3 this season.

Under Gruden, Carr has made strides in his ability to scramble, logging seven first downs as a ball-carrier, which matches his total from 2019.

For the first time in his career, Carr has familiarity with the same offensive system for a third consecutive term. He's put together peak performances against playoff-caliber competition, particularly in Week 2 against the New Orleans Saints and Week 5 against the Chiefs.

In a quarterback-driven league, Carr's high-level play gives the Raiders a chance at a playoff berth.

The Raiders' starting offensive line has played together for just three snaps. That's how long Trent Brown stayed on the field in the season opener before a calf injury sidelined him for the rest of that game and the following three weeks.

In Week 5, Brown returned to action, but left guard Richie Incognito didn't suit up for that contest. The team placed him on injured reserve with an Achilles injury after Week 2.

During Monday's news conference, Gruden said Incognito had just had his "best two days" of rehab and that he has his fingers crossed for Brown.

At full strength, the front five can be a force field around Carr and jump-start the ground attack, which ranks 17th leaguewide with 113.5 yards per game. Running back Josh Jacobs hasn't rushed for more than 93 yards in a game, and he's averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.

Through the first six weeks of 2019, Jacobs recorded 123-plus rushing yards twice and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. He could get a significant boost with the line completely intact.

Gruden hopes to provide some help for his top-10 offense. On Monday, he hinted toward potential schematic changes on defense, per The Athletic's Vic Tafur.

"Who goes inside, who goes outside," Gruden said. "Who's on the left side, who's on the right side. What stunts we call. What blitzes we call. Everything is on the table. ... We're going to play better on defense. I'm determined to make sure we prove that this week."

While many fans would like to see defensive coordinator Paul Guenther—who's made the calls for units that have ranked 24th or worse in points allowed over the past three seasons—replaced, Gruden didn't embrace the idea of any coaching changes.

The defense has allowed the second-most points and seventh-most yards. To make matters worse, the group has just seven sacks (tied for 29th), 48 quarterback pressures (26th) and three takeaways (tied for the fewest with the Dallas Cowboys).

The defense cannot fall much further in key statistical categories, so change across all three levels should be welcomed.

Perhaps Gruden has seen enough after his team gave up 45 points coming off a bye week. His reaction may spark the necessary urgency to tie up loose ends on defense.

The Raiders have activated Abram from the reserve/COVID-19 list. Cornerback Damon Arnette's eventual return would patch up another starting spot in the secondary.

As for the pass rush, David Irving, whom the team signed last week, could provide pocket pressure. He had 11 sacks in 2016 and 2017. The coaching staff can increase Maurice Hurst's snap count (34.4 percent) as a minor tweak in the rotation among the defensive tackles. He has six quarterback pressures in that limited role.

The 2010 Raiders who went 6-0 in the AFC West and still missed the playoffs would shrug their shoulders at this optimistic view. Nevertheless, most teams that take care of business in their division have a shot at a postseason berth. Also, remember each conference will carry a seventh seed going forward.

In Week 5, the Raiders beat the homestanding Chiefs. That doesn't mean they'll sweep the season series. However, this squad proved it can compete with the reigning champions. With that said, the Silver and Black should feel good about matchups with the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos.

Chargers rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has looked impressive over the last three weeks, throwing for 10 touchdowns and just one interception. He'll still be prone to make mistakes through his growing pains, however.

Secondly, Los Angeles has allowed 32.3 points per game in its last three outings. The Raiders and Chargers will likely battle in a shootout, but the more experienced signal-caller should have an edge in clutch moments.

The Broncos offense ranks 28th in scoring and yards. Quarterback Drew Lock hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 1. In his two outings since returning from a shoulder injury, he's recorded four interceptions.

Lock doesn't have his top wide receiver in Courtland Sutton, who is on injured reserve with a torn ACL and MCL. With a defense that is tied for 16th in points allowed, Denver isn't equipped to win a high-scoring matchup.

If the Raiders can just beat basement-level teams in the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets and outscore the Miami Dolphins—who turned over the offense to rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa during their Week 7 bye—a 4-2 record within the division would give them nine wins and possibly a wild-card spot.

Last year, the Silver and Black had few breaks in their schedule.

According to Alex Chippin of TheScore.com, the Raiders traveled 35,308 miles in 2019—more than any other team. They didn't have a home game from Weeks 3 to 8. That stretch included a trip to London. The Raiders also played four of their last six games on the road, which coincided with five losses.

Gruden voiced his displeasure with the team's brutal roadmap:

"We're still trying to understand how that happened, but we're going to have to deal with it. We've just got to showcase our mental toughness and deal with it. It's uncommon, maybe unprecedented, maybe unrealistic that this should ever happen in pro football. I'm not excited about it, but we'll adapt and do it the best we can."

The Raiders won't have to take on a road warrior role this season. After going east to face the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, they'll go west for a matchup against the Chargers at SoFi Stadium and then host the Broncos and Chiefs. Vegas will have a three-game homestand from Weeks 14 to 16.

Last year, the Raiders were 6-4 before they fell apart. Though Allegiant Stadium won't have fans in attendance, Vegas can take advantage of some home cooking and much less travel for a strong finish.