Mississippi State Is a Problem and Other Big Takeaways from SEC's Week 1

Mississippi State's upset of LSU highlighted the opening weekend of the 2020 SEC season, yet several other surprises popped up, even if the favorites mostly backed up their billing.

As you'd expect following a dramatically altered offseason, not every win is created equal. Alabama cruised, but Georgia struggled for a half. Auburn pulled away from Kentucky late in the lone Top 25 matchup, but Tennessee and Texas A&M needed to survive close fourth quarters.

And Mississippi State obliterated the box score.

B/R walked back through a busy first Saturday of SEC action and detailed the most notable stories of the weekend.

Most preseason SEC primers included this general feel: Georgia and Florida are the East division favorites, while Tennessee is maybe, possibly a threat. And in the West, Alabama is the front-runner, with LSU, Auburn and maybe Texas A&M in pursuit.

Kentucky and Ole Miss landed in the next tier—certainly not cellar-dwellers but also not contenders.

That held true in Week 1.

While Kentucky's offensive line garnered plenty of praise, would the skill-position talent be enough to compete with top SEC teams consistently? The early answer is concerning after the 'Cats mustered 4.9 yards per play and committed three turnovers in a 29-13 loss to eighth-ranked Auburn.

Mississippi seemed built to thrive offensively but struggle defensively. The Rebels eclipsed 600 offensive yards against Florida but also surrendered 642, falling 51-35 in Lane Kiffin's debut.

Both programs are capable of pulling off an upset in 2020, yet they'll probably scrape together four to six wins at most.

They did enough.

It's a simple sentence to describe the season-opening victories for both Tennessee and Texas A&M. Tennessee outlasted South Carolina 31-27, and Texas A&M stumbled past Vanderbilt 17-12. Most importantly, the records show up as 1-0.

And you can be rightfully concerned about both teams.

Jarrett Guarantano notched 8.4 yards per pass attempt, but Tennessee ended 1-of-12 on third down. Relying on explosive plays to sustain drives is problematic against the best competition. Plus, only an unlucky bounce on a punt return prevented South Carolina from having a final possession in the last 90 seconds of the game.

Texas A&M ran the ball effectively, yet Kellen Mond trudged to 6.8 yards per attempt and kept fumbling. The defense's timely interceptions bailed out the Aggies against a Vanderbilt program with 10 conference wins in the last six years.

Tennessee and Texas A&M entered the season as the most popular second-tier contenders. It's just one game. But neither debut suggested that's much of a reality.

No, this isn't a crowning of Mississippi State as a championship team—not even in the SEC West, for that matter. Thanks to the 44-34 win at LSU, though, the Bulldogs demanded a closer look.

Stanford transfer K.J. Costello threw for 623 yards and five touchdowns, taking full advantage of star corner Derek Stingley Jr.'s illness-related absence. Three Bulldogs topped 120 receiving yards, and two others added 50-plus in the debut of Mike Leach's offense.

I will be the first to acknowledge doubts of Mississippi State's having the depth at receiver to produce at such a high level. That uncertainty seems unwarranted, though.

Look, Costello set an outrageously high bar in an impressive debut. The Bulldogs cannot possibly sustain that performance—not even LSU's record-breaking 2019 offense could do it. Four giveaways and five sacks allowed are clear issues to address, and those mistakes can ruin any offensive performance.

But it's illogical to see that incredible upside and not view Mississippi State as a threat in 2020.

One significant source of fan pride is the ability to boast that one's favorite program "doesn't rebuild; it reloads."

Even after losing a ton of talent to the NFL, LSU entered the season with a roster full of highly recruited players. This year—shortened and strange as it is—offered a chance for the program to show it belongs with Alabama and Clemson as perennial College Football Playoff contenders.

The loss to Mississippi State complicated that goal.

LSU is suddenly one loss from exiting the CFP picture. By no means are we suggesting Tigers fans shouldn't passionately root for an undefeated-from-here season; emotion is the backbone of fandom. Reality, though, is painting a tough picture.

Replacing a record-breaking Heisman Trophy winner (Joe Burrow) at quarterback and a Biletnikoff Award recipient (Ja'Marr Chase) is hard! Breaking in two new coordinators (Scott Linehan, Bo Pelini) is difficult! Revamping the defense is messy!

Given LSU's relatively mild expectations from analysts—Alabama was the SEC's consensus favorite, for sure—it's unfair to call the Tigers overrated. But they're building for 2021.

And that's OK.

Florida's offense? Exciting. But the defense, well, we're going to consider that—like Georgia's offense—a work in progress. But fortunately for the Dawgs, that defense looks spectacular again.

Those mismatches are setting up a fascinating battle for the SEC East.

Kyle Trask diced Mississippi for 416 yards and six touchdowns, and the Gators scampered for 6.8 yards per rush. But they needed all 642 yards and 51 points to survive a 613-yard performance from Ole Miss, which ended 9-of-14 on third down as well.

Georgia, meanwhile, needed its defense to buy time for a struggling offense. The Bulldogs trailed Arkansas 7-5 at halftime but won 37-10 because the defense ceded just 4.2 yards per snap and forced three turnovers. The unit also recorded a safety and scored a touchdown on Eric Stokes' pick-six in the second half.

The full expectation is both teams will improve those weaknesses—particularly now that UGA quarterback JT Daniels is medically cleared after his 2019 torn ACL.

Every year, however, upsets happen because a unit collapses. We're not saying a surprise result is coming, but it's evident how that problem could develop for Florida and Georgia.

Although No. 8 Auburn was a semi-comfortable favorite over No. 23 Kentucky, it was still a Top 25 contest after a long, odd offseason. They started a little slowly but earned a valuable 29-13 win.

Now comes the marquee test.

Auburn travels to face No. 4 Georgia on Saturday in a showdown that is annually scheduled for early or mid-November. This season, though, it probably works out better for Auburn to play the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry as the calendar flips to October.

Georgia's offense is far from a finished product, and a low-scoring game better suits the Tigers anyway. If they can snatch a victory in Athens, Gus Malzahn's squad should climb to 5-0, as Arkansas, South Carolina and Ole Miss are next on the schedule.

The latter half of Auburn's slate—LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Alabama and Texas A&M—is full of landmines. But a win over Georgia protects the Tigers' slim margin for error.

During the 2020 recruiting cycle, Alabama landed 5-star quarterback Bryce Young. Tua Tagovailoa headed to the NFL, so the allure of starting Young immediately is understandable.

But his competition, Mac Jones, is not making it easy.

"Mac was really good tonight," Alabama coach Nick Saban said after the 38-19 win at Missouri, per Michael Casagrande of AL.com.

Jones completed 18 of 24 passes for 249 yards and two scores with zero interceptions, and Alabama scored touchdowns on five of his seven possessions. Young hit five of eight attempts for 54 yards and broke off a 12-yard run, but he also lost a fumble.

Right now, Jones offers the Tide the best chance to win. In the meantime, Young needs to capitalize on his limited reps and wait for an opportunity to play meaningful snaps.

After all, as Tagovailoa proved in the 2017 national championship game, you never know when it might happen.

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