The 1 Reason Every NBA Contender Can Win the Championship

We're just a few days away from the reboot of the 2019-20 NBA season.

After nearly five months away from a season already brimming with parity, and heading into an unprecedented situation, it's difficult to nail down a title prediction with much certainty.

Instead, let's look at one reason each of the league's "contenders" might walk away from this season with the game's highest team honor.

To narrow down the field, we'll use FiveThirtyEight's recently updated projection system and focus on the eight teams given a 1 percent or better chance to win the championship:

• Denver Nuggets (1 percent)
• Toronto Raptors (2 percent)
• Boston Celtics (6 percent)
• Houston Rockets (7 percent)
• Philadelphia 76ers (14 percent)
• Milwaukee Bucks (14 percent)
• Los Angeles Clippers (24 percent)
• Los Angeles Lakers (31 percent)

Some of the above winning it all may be a bit more surprising than others, but nothing would be shocking in this situation.

What are the reasons each could end up on top? Scroll below to find out.

Denver Nuggets: Playoff Jokic

For much of his career, Nikola Jokic has been questioned over his conditioning and the general physical shape he's in.

Last postseason, when he averaged 39.8 minutes, 25.1 points, 13.0 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks, should've put all that to rest.

In case it didn't, Jokic surfaced in video from Serbia in June looking significantly slimmer than he did when the season shut down in March.

If he's gained mobility without sacrificing much of the strength that helped make him the first-team All-NBA center in 2018-19, Jokic could be in for another all-time great playoff run.

      

Toronto Raptors: Championship Mettle

The Toronto Raptors lost Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green last summer, but the moxie developed through last year's postseason clearly stayed with holdovers like Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka and others.

Even with the starting wings in Los Angeles and the roster decimated by injuries in 2019-20, Toronto has the same 46-18 record it had through 64 games last season.

Toughness and a commitment to the defensive end of the floor make these Raptors dangerous. And if you're looking at teams equipped to at least slow Giannis Antetokounmpo down, few (if any) teams boast as many options as Toronto. Siakam, Ibaka, OG Anunoby and perhaps even Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will make the 2019 MVP work for every bucket.

      

Boston Celtics: Positionless Basketball

The Golden State Warriors and a still-to-be-analyzed Texas team get much of the credit for the positionless revolution sweeping the NBA, but the Boston Celtics are right there with them.

Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward are largely interchangeable on both ends of the floor, and 6'8" Daniel Theis often is on defense.

When those four are joined by Kemba Walker, the Celtics are plus-14.3 points per 100 possessions.

The ability to switch all over the floor gives Boston a level of defensive versatility that few other teams in the bubble will enjoy. And bucket-getters who can create something out of nothing, like Tatum and Walker, become more important in high-leverage playoff possessions.

       

Houston Rockets: Point Center

The Houston Rockets may be challenging traditional positional designations more than any other team in the league.

After Houston traded Clint Capela, Robert Covington became the nominal center (at least according to Basketball Reference). But in many ways, Russell Westbrook was the functional 5.

Opposing centers were often matched up with him, and that created a level of chaos in which he thrived.

In the 382 minutes Westbrook played without a traditional center on the floor, he averaged 28.4 points, 8.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists per 75 possessions. The most important number from those situations, though, is a 59.2 true shooting percentage that towers over his career mark of 53.0.

The sample on this is too small to draw any definitive conclusions, but if the Rockets have figured out how to optimize Westbrook's efficiency over prolonged periods, Houston is a wild card in the West.

When Joel Embiid is locked in, he looks every bit the type of star who could lead a team to an NBA championship. The problem, of course, is that he doesn't always appear to be locked in.

In 2019-20, the difference between his best single-game box plus/minus and his worst is a whopping 40.8. And he has nearly as many below-average games (11) by that measure as he does all-time-great-level games (13).

One night, he looks like the second coming of Hakeem Olajuwon, only with a little more shooting range. Another night, he looks Hasheem Thabeet.

(Believe it or not, Thabeet's career-low single-game box plus/minus is better than a minus-24.0 stinker Embiid had this season.)

On those nights that he plays like Olajuwon (or even close to that), though, the Philadelphia 76ers look like a juggernaut. In the 25 games in which Embiid has a 5.0-plus box plus/minus, Philly is 20-5 with a 5.8 average point differential.

If that version of Embiid is in play for most of the restart and postseason, the 76ers are very real contenders.

If you're looking for some indication that it might actually happen, it may be that the team appears to be embracing lineups that better suit Embiid.

"Brett Brown says that Joel Embiid and Al Horford have not played together at all in practice thus far," ESPN's Tim Bontemps tweeted. "He says Horford has been 'great' in accepting what likely will be a significantly lesser role in the new arrangement Philadelphia is operating under."

This season, Philadelphia is minus-1.4 points per 100 possessions when Embiid is on the floor with Horford. It's plus-10.5 (95th percentile) when Embiid plays without Horford. And he's better in virtually every statistical category in the latter arrangements.

The old adage "defense wins championships" has been around and used in multiple sports for decades.

Among the last 10 NBA champions, six have had a top-five defense (nine have been top 10). The average rank of that bunch is 5.7. A top-tier defense may not be an absolute must to win the title, but it sure doesn't hurt.

And the Milwaukee Bucks, led by two Defensive Player of the Year candidates in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, are stifling on that end.

Milwaukee's 101.9 points allowed per 100 possessions is 8.5 points better than the 2019-20 average. The 2007-08 Boston Celtics (minus-8.6), 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs (minus-8.8), 1964-65 Boston Celtics (minus-9.4) and 1963-64 Boston Celtics (minus-10.8) are the only teams in league history with better relative defensive ratings.

When Lopez and Giannis are both on the floor, that number plummets even further (all the way down to 95.9).

This is an all-time great team defense, and according to defensive box plus/minus, every single rotation player on the roster has been above average on that end this season.

In the postseason, when games slow down and individual possessions become vital to outcomes, a consistently nightmarish defense like Milwaukee's is key.

With Lopez protecting the rim, and players like Giannis, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Donte DiVincenzo and more focused on the perimeter, decent scoring opportunities are hard to come by.

If they can maintain this level of defense (or something close to it) through the end of the Finals, there's a good chance they'll be hoisting the trophy.

Kawhi Leonard has been operating like an NBA Terminator for years, but he somehow finds a more terrifying level of play in the postseason.

Since the 2013-14 playoffs that resulted in his first Finals MVP, Kawhi's postseason box plus/minus is 8.9 (compared to 7.7 in the regular season over the same span). LeBron James (10.4) is the only player with at least 1,000 playoff minutes and a better box plus/minus than Kawhi over that span.

During the Raptors' 2019 run to the championship alone, Leonard averaged 30.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.3 threes and 1.7 steals.

When he had the ball—or when he was staring down an opponent with possession—something good happening for Toronto almost felt inevitable. The amount of control he can exercise over possessions on either end of the floor is nearly unparalleled.

And in the playoffs, when load management largely goes out the window, he does that in even more playing time. There are precious few minutes in which opponents can hide from Leonard.

Supplemented by a loaded supporting cast that includes Paul George, Montrezl Harrell, Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams and more, this all-time great playoff performer could be on his way to a third Finals MVP with a third different team.

For the majority of his 17-year career, the mere presence of LeBron James on a roster meant the team would compete for an NBA title.

Since the start of his rookie season, LeBron's teams are plus-8,021 points in the regular season and playoffs combined. Tim Duncan is the closest to that mark over the same span at plus-6,489.

From 2011 to 2018, he made eight consecutive NBA Finals and won three titles.

When he's on the floor this season, the Los Angeles Lakers play like a 65-win team. When he's off, they play like a 37-win team.

Last summer, he missed the playoffs for the first time since 2005. That and what will be a near-five-month hiatus by the time the season resumes means LeBron will be fresh.

A rested James, supported by Anthony Davis and motivated to win his fourth title, should be terrifying for the rest of the league.

"I've just seen how he is this year in some of the bigger regular-season games, how he's more mentally locked in, more vocal, more making sure everybody else is locked in," Frank Vogel said of Playoff LeBron. "And I anticipate that come playoff time, we'll see that all being done at an enhanced level."

Of the top 100 postseasons by wins over replacement player, 12 belong to LeBron. He also has four of the top six and six of the top 19.

Given a track record like that and a supporting cast like the one L.A. has built around him, it's easy to see why projection models are so high on the Lakers.