Dark Horses to Watch in Men's College Basketball Power 5 Conference Tournaments

It happens every year. At least one dark horse emerges during the conference tournaments. And it makes sense. Teams with a Hail Mary's chance at the Big Dance are a little more motivated to play well than a team playing for positioning or prestige.

All you have to do is look at any bubble picture to see that it's heavy with teams from the Power Five conferences. These programs may not be locks for the Big Dance, but they're still good teams that are not just motivated emotionally but equipped physically to make a run.

The conference brackets are out, so let us identify one team from each power conference—ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC—with the best chance to run the table and snag a last-minute dance ticket.

Season summary

Of this season's bubble teams, NC State (19-12, 10-10 ACC, NCAA Evaluation Tool 55) is among the bubbliest.

All the ACC's projected Big Dance teams—Florida State, Louisville, Duke and Virginia—are firmly ensconced in the field. Among the bottom eight, the collective horsepower isn't enough to justify any objective optimism. That leaves the Wolfpack and Notre Dame in the sweet spot with the motivation only a do-or-die situation can provide, plus the tools to actually get it done.

NC State has a tenuous grip on an 11th seed and is one of bracketologist Joe Lunardi's last four teams in, but it has gotten a little sideways down the stretch. That signature February 6 win over Duke is still pretty fresh—even if that score-settling loss at Cameron Indoor is even fresher. The Wolfpack went 2-3 since beating the Blue Devils.

     

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The Wolfpack finished their regular season Friday with an 84-64 win over sneaky-tough Wake Forest. On the court, the Wolfpack have received a twin-barreled turbo boost at just the right moment.

Braxton Beverly has played through a nagging back injury all season, but he looked pretty dang healthy against Wake. The guard hit 6-of-7 from the field to finish with 16 points, his highest scoring output this season except for the 23 he handed Detroit Mercy in November.

Even more importantly, the 6'10" D.J. Funderburk may have found another gear at just the right time. Big men are key this time of year because they're a reliable, high-percentage scoring option when the deep shots aren't falling. Funderburk has been solid all season, but over the regular season's final three games he averaged 14.7 points on 65.3 percent shooting, 7.0 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per contest—all substantially above his season averages.

     

Tournament picture

Assuming chalk, NC State would face Wake Forest on Wednesday. No one should look past the 13-17 Deacs, but it's a winnable game nonetheless.

The fifth seed would hypothetically then have a chance at a rubber match with the fourth-seeded Blue Devils in their second game of the ACC tournament. I'm no Jay Bilas, but that matchup would appear to carry some stakes. If they can pull that off, next up would probably be third-seeded Florida State, a team NC State took a lead into halftime against before losing by six in its only meeting this season.

Season summary

It says a lot about the Big Ten's national prominence that Rutgers (20-11, 11-9, NET 31), a team vying for a better position in the NCAA tournament, is tied for eighth in the standings. (Lunardi currently has 10 Big Ten teams slated for tournament spots—three more than the runner-up Pac-12.)

So despite their position of relative strength, the Scarlet Knights still qualify as a dark horse in this conference tourney. And they still have something at stake; a bye can obviously carry big implications.

Sitting sixth in KenPom's defensive rankings, Rutgers is tailor-made for this time of the season, when the game slows down and stops are at a premium.

      

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The Knights bumped up their momentum substantially when they closed the regular season with wins over then-No. 9 Maryland and Purdue. In those games, they held high-powered Maryland to just 38.5 percent shooting from the field and then limited the Boilermakers to 33.8. Guard Jacob Young has provided a critical scoring punch off the bench, averaging 13.3 points as a reserve in the final three games.

      

Tournament picture

It's not an easy draw, but if it looked easy, they wouldn't a dark horse.

Up first is ninth-seeded Michigan, which beat Rutgers twice this season. However, the losses came by an average of just seven points, so it's not a stretch to say the Scarlet Knights are due in a third contest. Top tournament seed Wisconsin would be up next, a team Rutgers beat in December before losing by eight in February's rematch. With this defense, i'll be a tough out for anyone it faces.

Season summary

February was a time of darkness in Morgantown, as West Virginia (21-10, 9-9 Big 12, NET 19) dropped six of seven to plummet from its perch as a projected No. 2 seed on February 7 to a No. 8 one month later. Yikes.

But March provided a glimmer of light with consecutive wins over Iowa State and, hugely, No. 4 Baylor. It wasn't enough to fully erase that February, but it was a boost in the right direction. As of Tuesday, the Mountaineers had inched up to the seven line.

This season, coach Bob Huggins went away from the Mounties' classic Press Virginia defense, opting instead for a lane-clogging half-court style. It has proved just as formidable. WVU is holding steady at third in KenPom and limits teams to 62.4 points on 38.9 percent shooting—both good for 15th nationally.

      

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Huggins knows how to turn up the intensity on his teams. This group should hit the tournament like a house on fire behind the towering tandem of 6'10" Derek Culver and the team's best player in 6'9" Oscar Tshiebwe, whose 13.5 points on 50 percent shooting and 10.5 boards in the final two contests was one of his best two-game stretches this season.

      

Tournament picture

Here's a weird factoid. West Virginia is a projected seventh seed for the Dance but a sixth seed in the Big 12 tourney. Quarterfinal opponent Oklahoma is a third seed but projected as a No. 9 seed in the NCAAs. Oh, college basketball. 

The Big 12 tournament is a chance for the Mountaineers to put February even farther behind them. It may be a tall order, with Oklahoma having swept the season series. However, both of those games occurred in that ignominious February. The Mounties will be foaming at the mouth for this game, and if they've truly gotten well in March, they'll have a good chance to win this one and more.

Season summary

In the postseason, you need go-to options. You need Old Faithfuls. And nothing in basketball is older or more faithful than the pick-and-roll.

For Arizona (20-11, 10-8 Pac 12, NET 15), supertalented cult hero Nico Mannion and 6'11" forward Zeke Nnaji can run it in their sleep all over the court.

Mannion gets all the shine, but Nnaji is the team's leading scorer and rebounder and has a Swiss Army knife offensive game, fueled by a strong connection with Mannion. Nnaji ranks fifth in the Pac-12 with a 26.3 player efficiency rating, fourth with 0.234 win shares per 40 minutes and sixth in two-point shooting percentage (59.0). As for Mannion, only Oregon star Payton Pritchard ranks above his 167 assists and 5.4 assists per game in the league.

They've been a problem all season for every Wildcat opponent—until recently, that is.

     

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Arizona is projected as a No. 8 seed in the NCAA tournament after losing four of its final five contests. The Wildcats also lost their chance at a Pac-12 tournament bye.  

Nnaji, in particular, had some tough games in that stretch, shooting a combined 36.3 percent from the field in consecutive losses to Oregon and USC. He regained some of his form in the final three games thereafter, but he and Mannion may need to take some deep breaths and return to basics to find higher-percentage opportunities. 

Although the 'Cats rank 28th nationally with a 1.29 assist-to-turnover ratio, over that five-game season-ending stretch, they gave it away 14.4 times per contest—nearly three more than their 11.8 season average.

     

Tournament picture

A return to winning basketball will require back-to-basics principles on both sides of the ball. The Wildcats always have good defense under coach Sean Miller, and this season is no different as they're 15th in KenPom's adjusted defense rankings.

On Wednesday, fifth-seeded Arizona has a rematch with a surging Washington team that beat them by six in the regular-season finale. So these two teams know each other. Great coaches like Miller can turn that to their advantage. If the Wildcats can stay within themselves and avoid unforced errors like the 18 turnovers or the 6-of-17 shooting (35.3 percent) from three last time, they should be OK. 

After that, No. 4 USC and No. 1 Oregon loom in their half of the bracket. But an Arizona team dedicated to making (and finishing) the right plays is formidable every time.

Season summary

This is the softest of the five power conferences—in basketball, anyway—with only four teams projected to reach the tournament. The SEC's first entry on the NET rankings is Kentucky at No. 21.

That means the SEC tournament is particularly vulnerable to a dark horse, so let's take this opportunity to have some fun, reach way down into the standings and identify the sixth-seeded South Carolina Gamecocks (18-13, 10-8, NET 63). 

This is the same team that knocked off Kentucky in mid-January. In December, it stunned then-No. 9 Virginia—and then turned around and lost (at home no less) to mighty Stetson, which has a whopping NET ranking of 294.

      

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No, their name does not currently factor into any bracketological deliberation. In their final three games, the Gamecocks lost to two bottom feeders in Alabama and Vanderbilt. They also knocked off a frisky Mississippi State club, but this concluding run still shattered the Gamecocks' fragile hopes for an at-large bid, making a full conference tourney run a necessity.

This suggests that this team plays better when expectations (and thus pressure) are low. 

      

Tournament picture

Once again, grizzled head coach Frank Martin and his pressure man defense are the key in South Carolina—and it could be good enough to carry this team to the promised land. No, really.

South Carolina sits 49th in the KenPom defensive rankings. That may not look like much at a glance, but it's good enough for tops in the SEC.

According to NCAA stats, South Carolina is 18th nationally in opponent's shooting percentage (39.3), 19th in opponent's three-point shooting (29.6 percent) and 41st in the nation in both turnovers forced (15.5) and turnover margin (2.4). 

The SEC field has no true juggernauts, and in a season when ugly wins carry no stigma, there could be a place for the Gamecocks yet.

If South Carolina can drag their opponents into the tar pits, they could make some hay when the SEC tournament gets rolling Wednesday in Nashville, Tennessee. South Carolina has a relatively easy matchup in the winner between Vanderbilt and Arkansas and then it would face LSU, who beat SC 86-80 in their lone season meeting.

The Tigers lead the SEC in field-goal percentage (47.1) and are second with 80.5 points per game. Something, as they say, has to give. If the Gamecocks bring their A-game, that could be LSU. Although plenty of good teams would remain in the field, none in the SEC this season is truly unassailable.

           

Stats courtesy of ESPN.com, Basketball Reference, KenPom.com and the NCAA.