Odds for Each CBB Bubble Team to Make 2020 March Madness with 1 Month to Go

One way or the other, there are going to be 68 teams in the 2020 men's NCAA tournament field.

Which teams on the bubble have the best chance of making the cut?

Bracketology is all based on the here and now. If the season ended today, what might the field look like?

But the season doesn't end today, and based on remaining schedules, teams currently not in the field might actually have better odds than those projected for a bid.

The inherently difficult thing about this exercise is we're forced to consider each team in a vacuum, even though everyone is chasing a constantly moving target. We have a general idea of what is required for NCAA tournament inclusion based on previous seasons, but what it takes to get in changes from year to year. That's why they call it the bubble.

While we will say that Team A needs to do X, Y and Z to get into the tournament, it might not actually be enough if more bubble teams than usual play well down the stretch or if there are a bunch of conference tournament "bid thieves" that turn projected auto bids into at-large bids and lessen the number of available spots. Conversely, Team A might fall short of accomplishing X, Y and Z but could still get in if enough other teams sputter to the finish line and lower the bar for a spot in the field.

However, people are constantly asking what it would take for specific teams to get into the tournament, and this is our best guess at those minimum requirements for the eight teams surrounding the cut line.

You can't bet on them, but these are the tournament odds we've generated for the last four in and first four out, according to Monday's Bracket Matrix update, listed in descending order of how safely in the field they are (or aren't).

Resume: 17-8, NET 51, KP 40, SOS 24, NC SOS 33, 2-5 vs Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2, 9-3 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Fourth-to-Last Team In

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: vs. UCF, vs. Wichita State, at No. 22 Houston, at South Florida, vs. Temple

Cincinnati has one of the strangest resumes on this year's bubble.

The Bearcats have two Quadrant 1 wins, but neither the two-point home victory over Houston nor the one-point road win over Wichita State is a top-notch result. They also have bad Quadrant 3 losses to Colgate, Bowling Green and Tulane. But a 6-0 record (with a 12.8-point average margin) in Quadrant 2 is their saving grace. No individual win in that sextet is worth mentioning, but the collection is providing a huge boost.

For now, it's a resume held together by chewing gum and baling wire.

A road win over Houston would be a huge step in the right direction. A home loss to UCF or Temple would have a near-equal-but-opposite impact. But the home game against Wichita State on Sunday should be the deciding factor, assuming the Bearcats beat the Knights and Owls and lose to the Cougars.

If Cincinnati goes 4-1 down the stretch, that figures to be enough. Finishing a season sweep of the Shockers may actually move the Bearcats ahead of them on the overall seed list, considering Gregg Marshall's guys are only slightly ahead. But blow the opportunities against Wichita State and Houston, and they will be at the mercy of the rest of the bubble.

As long as Cincinnati doesn't lose to UCF, USF or Temple, though, it would still have a good case with a decent run in the AAC tourney.

Tournament Odds: -125

Resume: 16-9, NET 63, KP 49, SOS 44, NC SOS 91, 4-7 vs Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 10-0 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Third-to-Last Team In

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: at Minnesota, vs. No. 9 Penn State, at Purdue, at Illinois, vs. Minnesota, vs. Wisconsin

One thing is for certain: Indiana will only have itself to blame if it doesn't get in, because it has opportunities aplenty.

The Hoosiers' last seven games have come against teams in the NET Top 50, and that is exclusively what is on tap the rest of the way. The next four are Quadrant 1 affairs. The last two are Quadrant 2 games that might be Quadrant 1 by the time they arrive.

This, of course, means the path is anything but easy for a team that already does not have a great NET ranking.

Indiana is 1-5 in its last six games, and a 2-4 record down the stretch probably wouldn't cut it—especially if it loses the first four and wins the last two, ending up at 18-13 with a 4-11 record against Quadrant 1 and a 3-9 record away from home.

The 1-6 record in true road games is troubling, especially considering three of the next four are of that variety. The lone road win came against Nebraska, and each of the six losses came by at least nine points. Not promising. And the one home game during that four-game stretch comes against one of the hottest teams on the planet in Penn State.

The good news is Indiana doesn't need to be perfect for these next three weeks, which is more or less the mandate for every other team on this list. But odds are it is going to lose more than it wins.

Tournament Odds: +175

Resume: 15-10, NET 46, KP 47, SOS 5, NC SOS 39, 5-9 vs Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, 6-0 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Second-to-Last Team In

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: vs. Providence, at DePaul, at No. 19 Marquette, vs. Xavier, at No. 15 Creighton, vs. No. 12 Villanova

Five Quadrant 1 wins, nine wins against the top two quadrants, no bad losses and a top-five strength of schedule is one heck of a resume. I have Georgetown projected for a No. 9 seed, but the matrix doesn't agree. Either way, the Hoyas are on the bubble with two critical games this week.

Like Indiana, Georgetown probably needs to go 3-3 the rest of the way to maintain its spot in the field. And the two easiest games left on its slate are the two coming up next. If the Hoyas were to lose to either Providence or DePaul, they would then need to upset a NET Top 20 team in Marquette, Creighton or Villanova.

Even though Georgetown just won at Butler, that may be asking too much from this short-handed squad. Creighton and Marquette are a combined 25-2 at home this season, and Villanova is anything but a pushover on any court.

But as long as Georgetown beats Providence, DePaul and Xavier, it should be fine. Based on the NET rankings, that would put the Hoyas at 18-13 with a 6-12 record against Quadrant 1 and a 6-1 record against Quadrant 2. Oklahoma, Baylor and Florida had similar resumes last year, and they each got in with a little room to spare. Those teams also suffered at least one bad loss each, which Georgetown has not.

KenPom projects the Hoyas to finish 18-13, so we like their chances.

Tournament Odds: -175

Resume: 21-7, NET 41, KP 39, SOS 94, NC SOS 98, 2-4 vs Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 15-1 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Last Team In

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: vs. Wyoming, vs. San Jose State, at New Mexico

If the Aggies lose either of their home games, they're getting the boot. Wyoming and San Jose State are the worst teams in the Mountain West Conference by a wide margin. Utah State should destroy them as effortlessly as it took care of Weber State (89-34), Denver (97-56) and North Carolina A&T (81-54) in November.

It should also win the road game against New Mexico. The Lobos have lost seven of their last nine games, and the two wins were home games against...Wyoming and San Jose State. The Pit has historically been a tough place to play, but not so much this year.

The problem is none of the three opponents will do much of anything to help Utah State's resume. The first two are definitely Quadrant 4, and the New Mexico game will probably be Quadrant 3. Major-conference teams on the wrong side of the bubble could be a win or two away from leaving the Aggies in the dust, and there's nothing Utah State can do about it aside from win the MWC tournament to erase all doubt.

But if you're trusting any bubble team to make a late surge with quality wins, you haven't been paying much attention. Even if a couple of teams do it, there will likely be twice as many in the Nos. 8-11 range struggling their way out of the picture.

Thus, if Utah State wins these three games and avoids a horrific loss in its conference tournament, it should be back in the Big Dance for a second straight year—provided there aren't an inordinate number of bid thieves.

Tournament Odds: +105

Resume: 19-6, NET 44, KP 51, SOS 84, NC SOS 110, 2-4 vs Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 15-1 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: First Team Out

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: vs. George Mason, at St. Bonaventure, at George Washington, vs. Massachusetts, vs. Davidson, at Duquesne

Richmond has won four straight, but it better double that winning streak if it wants to remain in the mix for an at-large bid.

A home loss to George Mason or Massachusetts would be catastrophic at this stage in the season for a bubble team. (Just ask VCU.) A road loss to George Washington wouldn't be much better. And while a loss at St. Bonaventure would at least be a Quadrant 2 result that wouldn't hurt quite as much as the other three, it's just a plain bad idea to lose to a team outside the NET Top 100 when trying to play your way into the field.

Getting to 23-6 would hardly lock the Spiders in, though. A loss to Davidson or Duquesne would probably put them right back on the cut line, and losing both games might knock Richmond out of consideration altogether.

But if the Spiders win all six, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't get in. They have only a 4-5 record against the NET Top 135, but they would add three more wins against that group while improving to 25-6 and—most importantly—avoiding bad losses.

There's about a 10 percent chance they'll go 6-0 down the stretch and approximately a 32 percent chance they'll go 5-1. And assuming 5-1 gives them a 50-50 shot at dancing, that's about a 1-in-4 chance.

Tournament Odds: +285

Resume: 16-10, NET 48, KP 44, SOS 18, NC SOS 11, 2-6 vs Q1, 2-4 vs. Q2, 12-0 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Second Team Out

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: vs. Missouri. vs. Tennessee, at Georgia, vs. LSU, at Texas A&M

Is there a more snake-bitten team than Arkansas?

First, the Razorbacks lost a nail-biter to South Carolina. Next, they lost Isaiah Joe indefinitely to a knee injury. After that, it was back-to-back overtime losses to Auburn and Missouri in which they blew late leads in regulation. And then after a loss to Tennessee came a one-point loss to Mississippi State on a last-second tip-in by a guy who hadn't scored in the first 39:59.

That's like two seasons' worth of bad luck in the span of six games, and the Hogs picked up three Quadrant 2 losses in the process.

Tuesday night at Florida was a big opportunity for a get-well victory, but it wasn't meant to be. It was a neck-and-neck race for the first 33 minutes before the Gators ran away with a 14-point victory.

The good news is the schedule is much more forgiving the rest of the way. Arkansas certainly should win the remaining games against Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia and Texas A&M, and that home game against LSU feels much more gettable now that the Tigers have lost three straight road games to Vanderbilt, Auburn and Alabama.

The bad news is not one of those games is a major needle-mover. Even if the Hogs were to go 4-1 with an understandable loss against LSU, that would likely only be enough to keep them right here in "First Four Out" range at the start of the SEC tournament.

The unknown news is when Joe will return and how much the selection committee will be willing to disregard what is currently a five-game losing streak without him if he comes back and the team looks good again. That's one of the biggest wild cards in the nation as we enter the home stretch.

Tournament Odds: +180

Resume: 16-9, NET 37, KP 45, SOS 90, NC SOS 200, 2-5 vs Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, 12-1 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Third Team Out

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: at Washington, at Washington State, vs. Utah, vs. No. 18 Colorado, at Oregon State, at No. 14 Oregon

After surprisingly debuting at No. 9 in this year's NET rankings, Stanford held serve for a little while, getting into mid-January with a 15-2 record. Plus, the two losses—68-67 vs. Butler on a neutral floor and in a home game against Kansas—were against opponents that were both projected for No. 1 seeds.

Then, right as we were getting willing to consider the possibility that Stanford was the best team in the Pac-12, the bottom fell out. Every game the Cardinal plays is close, but they have lost seven of their last eight, plummeting onto the wrong side of the bubble.

Stanford does have two quality wins, over Oregon (home) and Oklahoma (neutral), but it needs to beef up a list on which the third-best victory is either a home game against Washington or a road game against UCLA. A 4-8 record against the top two quadrants isn't great.

The most likely scenario is probably a 4-2 finish with the losses coming to Colorado and Oregon, but would that be enough? A 20-11 record with two Quadrant 1 wins—assuming the Oklahoma win even remains in Quadrant 1—might be OK. Temple made it into the First Four with a similar resume last year. It wouldn't make Stanford a lock, though, especially if it bows out of the Pac-12 tournament early.

Just to stay in the hunt, the Cardinal better sweep its next two games. Drop either, and they might need to go 4-0 the rest of the way. And given their recent string of bad luck, that seems like an impossible task.

Tournament Odds: +225

Resume: 16-9, NET 53, KP 48, SOS 49, NC SOS 96, 2-6 vs Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 11-2 vs. Q3/Q4

Spot in Bracket Matrix: Fourth Team Out

Remaining Regular-Season Schedule: vs. South Carolina, at Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, at Missouri, at South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss

Much like Utah State, the big question for Mississippi State is: Would winning out even do much to strengthen this resume?

No, I'm not trying to compare six games against the bottom half of the SEC to home games against the two worst teams in the Mountain West Conference, but the only Quadrant 1 game in the bunch is a road tilt against South Carolina. And the Gamecocks are merely No. 65 in the NET, so they may well drop below 75 (and out of Quadrant 1) if they get swept by the Bulldogs.

Moreover, Mississippi State has just three wins over teams in the hunt for at-large bids, sweeping Arkansas and winning at Florida. There's not a hat-hanging win in that trio, so it barely even offsets bad losses to Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State.

If the Bulldogs win out and get to 22-9 before the SEC tournament, they should be in good shape. However, multiply their KenPom win probabilities together, and there's only a 5.5 percent chance of that happening. And a 5-1 home stretch would likely leave them firmly in the "work left to do" category.

The biggest thing working in MSU's favor might be the notion that there is always one controversial inclusion from the SEC. Florida earned a No. 10 seed with 15 losses last year. Alabama and Vanderbilt got No. 9 seeds with the same number of losses in 2018 and 2017. And I'll never forget Georgia's getting into the 2015 tournament with 11 losses and an 0-6 record against the RPI Top 50.

That said, fans in Starkville should probably wait a few more weeks before making arrangements to go watch their team in the NCAA tournament.

Tournament Odds: +450