Overpaying is a fixture of NFL free agency. So goes the open market, where teams in need of help don't mind spending a little extra to secure players.
2019 provided plenty of examples. The Jacksonville Jaguars paid big for quarterback Nick Foles, giving him $88 million over four years. Washington threw $84 million at safety Landon Collins. The San Francisco 49ers handed linebacker Kwon Alexander a four-year, $54 million deal.
Those weren't terrible signings. But one could argue positional scarcity, healthy competition and the return made those overpays that hindsight affirms.
When considering those factors for 2020 free agents, a handful of players stick out as the most likely to get overpaid.
Shaquil Barrett is one of the biggest steals in recent free-agent history.
While he isn't propelling the bumbling Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7) to contention, his 11.5 sacks (second in the league), nine hurries and 27 pressures on a one-year, $4 million deal is about as bang-for-the-buck as it gets.
This summer, the bidding war could be on.
Few things get front offices more willing to open the checkbooks than someone with the ability to rush the passer. Barrett is just 27 years old and looks like he finally blossomed with a new team.
At least one franchise will consider handing him a gargantuan contract. It would be a big risk, though. Prior to 2019, he had never had more than 5.5 sacks in a season, and seven of his this year came over a two-game stretch. But some teams won't blink at taking the gamble.
When Matthew Judon hits free agency, some team will overpay with the hope he'll take another leap and be the next Za'Darius Smith.
Smith left the Baltimore Ravens this past offseason and been a superb pass-rusher in Green Bay. He's already matched his sack total from 2018 with 8.5 sacks in 10 games. Judon has one year left on his deal and has put up six sacks and 22 pressures with his uptick in playing time.
Judon had 15 sacks over his prior two seasons, so he's where most probably expected him production-wise. But Baltimore might not want to meet his demands when the market inflates his value.
Considering the fact that Smith made $66 million with a $16.5 average annual value, Judon could be in line for even more given the escalating nature of the market each year. But there isn't a guarantee his play will follow a similar path.
It doesn't get much more premium than cornerback, and one could argue the 2020 free-agent class isn't looking great. Older veterans such as Chris Harris Jr. (30 years old) and Aqib Talib (33) are set to hit market, as are Marcus Peters and James Bradberry.
But few compare to Byron Jones.
He hasn't received the attention he probably deserves given some of the names in Dallas. But we're talking about a 2015 first-round pick who has only allowed a 55.3 percent completion rate on 38 targets. Don't forget the 27-year-old's ability to change roles and play safety.
Jones is the top candidate to be the NFL's highest-paid corner this offseason. If a bidding war inflates his deal, he might be overpaid compared to what he brings to the table, which speaks more to the silliness of some free-agency spending sprees than anything else.
Washington doesn't seem to care that its offensive line has deteriorated in 2019, and that will continue when Brandon Scherff hits the open market.
And Scherff is bound to be paid like one of the best guards in football. That's fair when he's on the field. If the way he bullies defenders doesn't confirm that, his 78.3 grade at Pro Football Focus should. He's only allowed one sack on an offensive line that has allowed 32.
That said, he will be 28 in December and last played a full season in 2016. He mustered only eight games in 2018 and has already missed two this season.
Contracts for interior linemen keep booming. Rodger Saffold got $44 million in March, and Brandon Brooks just got an extension that checks in at $56.2 million over four years. Scherff is good, but his availability concerns and the limited impact of the position make him an overpay candidate.
If the Cincinnati Bengals lose A.J. Green this offseason, he could be the poster boy for a massive overpay.
Everyone knows what Green is. He's one of the best of his era, a player with nearly 9,000 receiving yards, 63 scores and 14.8 yards per catch—all while not playing in the best of locales.
But—and this is a big but—it all hinges on Green's ability to stay healthy. He missed six games in 2016 and seven more in 2018. He has yet to suit up this season. He had a right toe operation this offseason, and a left ankle injury on the first day of training camp required surgery. He had played 76 of 80 games in his first five years.
Regardless of whether Green gets on the field this season, keep in mind he'll turn 32 next year. And yet none of this will prevent him from becoming one of the NFL's highest-paid wideouts again.
The structure of the contract will determine if it's a gross mistake, but the price alone to get Green will put a strain on cap space.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are probably kicking themselves for not inking Bud Dupree to an extension this offseason.
But that speaks to how impossible it was to see his breakout coming.
Dupree flirted with the bust label before this season, grading out at 60.4 at Pro Football Focus in 2018. This year? He's at 80.7. It's a remarkable turnaround for Dupree, who also boasts 42 tackles, 19 pressures and six sacks.
Those are big numbers for a 26-year-old linebacker now set to make massive money on the open market. But the surefire giant deal will come with a question: Is this just a contract-year blip on the radar?
Hard to say, but some team is going to back up the Brinks truck and gamble on finding out.
Germain Ifedi checks all the overpay boxes: a premium position, severe leaguewide scarcity and questionable play.
Even so, Ifedi's headed for a giant payday. The Seattle Seahawks declined his fifth-year option this offseason, and he's responded with another dud of a campaign, this time checking in with a 54.8 grade at Pro Football Focus.
Rest assured, none of this will stop NFL teams. The draft isn't exactly overflowing with quality tackle candidates, and the best don't usually slip to free agency. Ifedi is still just 25 years old and was a 2016 first-round pick.
Look at it this way. Bobby Hart, one of the NFL's most penalized players last year, got three years and $16.2 million from Cincinnati in March. He has a 55.1 grade at PFF. Ja'Wuan James inexplicably got four years and $51 million. At PFF, he's at 49.3. Ifedi is merely next.
Marcus Mariota at least has a hopeful narrative surrounding his trip to free agency compared to Jameis Winston.
Winston has been too erratic on the field with a 61.2 completion percentage and 107 touchdowns against 76 interceptions. If pairing him with Bruce Arians didn't work (his completion rate is 59.6 percent this season), nothing might.
With Mariota, there's a sense he can break free of a team that has held him back and turn it around. He owns a 62.9 completion percentage and 76-to-44 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
In theory, the right team could squeeze some good seasons from the 26-year-old. But that's provided his body is right after he's played through nagging injuries seemingly every season.
The combination of position premium and scarcity will drive up his price tremendously. Mariota isn't a Nick Foles, but Foles' non-playoff resume wasn't exactly impressive before he got paid in March. If a team believes in Mariota enough and feels the pressure, a big contract will follow.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference. Contract details via Spotrac.