Start 'Em or Sit 'Em for Fantasy Football Week 10

This is a pivotal week in the fantasy football calendar.

In the majority of fantasy football leagues, Week 10 brings with it the beginning of the final month of the regular season. With just four to five games left, the playoff chase is in full swing.

If you're 5-4 or 4-5, there's not much margin for error—if any. Make one wrong lineup decision, and it could mean a loss. That one loss could mean the difference between making the playoffs or an early end to the season.

And as if that and the ever-increasing pile of injured players wasn't enough pressure, half a dozen teams are on a bye in Week 10.

Hey, who doesn't like a challenge?

I'm here to help you be up to that challenge.

Every week this season, I've taken a look at start/sit questions on the Bleacher Report app and selected a handful that will help offer insight into players who could be set to explode or fizzle. The sorts of big plays and duds-in-waiting that can make or break a week.

Let's begin the stretch run the right way—with a win.

                    

Still can't figure out your fantasy football lineup for the week? Check out Your Fantasy Fire Drill with Matt Camp, and he'll solve your problems live. Submit your questions and tune in every Sunday at 11:30 a.m. ET, only on the B/R app.

The first half of this two-part inquiry smacks a bit of overthinking, although it's understandable in this case.

Seattle Seahawks tailback Chris Carson draws a miserable fantasy matchup for the second consecutive game in Week 10—the San Francisco 49ers are surrendering the third-fewest PPR fantasy points per game to the running back position in 2019.

The thing is, Carson also faced an uphill slog last week against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that's giving up a league-low 78.1 yards per game on the ground. And the third-year pro peeled off 105 rushing yards on 16 carries.

Jaylen Samuels of the Pittsburgh Steelers wasn't nearly as productive on a per-touch basis a week ago, but with a full point awarded for receptions, his 13 catches against the Indianapolis Colts saved the day. Still, with James Conner back on the practice field Wednesday, much of the fantasy shine has come off Samuels.

By "much," I mean approximately 93 percent.

At quarterback, Derek Carr of the Raiders is out—he has the lowest fantasy ceiling of this trio and an unfavorable matchup against a Los Angeles Chargers team that's 27th in fantasy points per game given up against signal-callers in 2019.

That leaves Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings and Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons. Ryan is nursing an ankle injury, but Cousins has an even worse fantasy matchup than Carr and just hasn't been the same quarterback away from U.S. Bank Stadium.

Assuming Ryan plays in New Orleans this week, there's quite a bit of potential for garbage-time production.

And who doesn't love garbage time?

The Call: Carson and Ryan

This is a pretty good stable of running backs, all things considered.

However, there's a significant problem with at least one of them. Jordan Howard of the Philadelphia Eagles is guaranteed to have a dismal stat line in Week 10.

The Eagles are on a bye.

Latavius Murray of the New Orleans Saints is out, too—assuming that Alvin Kamara is back on the field Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. Murray was great with Kamara on the shelf, peeling off back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts. But with Kamara back, Murray's workload becomes a major concern.

That leaves three running backs and two slots—Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns, Devin Singletary of the Buffalo Bills and David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears.

Chubb is a no-brainer—the second-year pro is sixth among running backs in PPR fantasy points for the season, and while Buffalo Bills are excellent against the pass, the Bills slot just outside the top 10 in fantasy points given up to running backs this season.

The last spot is tricky. Both Singletary and Montgomery have heated up of late—the former had 140 total yards last week and the latter scored both of the Bears touchdowns against the Philadelphia Eagles. Both also have excellent fantasy matchups at Cleveland and vs. Detroit, respectively.

But the Lions have been the fantasy matchup for running backs—the team is 27th in run defense and has allowed the most PPR fantasy points per game to the position in 2019.

It's close—but Monty gets the nod.

The Call: Chubb and Montgomery

There's a lot that could change here depending on how injury news shakes out later on this week.

However, there's an easy workaround to making yourself crazy with maybes and what-ifs.

Maybe Jaylen Samuels will get another heavy workload in Week 10 against the Los Angeles Rams. But per Bryan DeArdo of CBS Sports, Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is optimistic James Conner will be back in action in Week 10. Even if he's not, most of Samuels' fantasy value in Week 9 was tied to his 13 receptions—the 23-year-old only had 83 total yards last week against the Colts.

That's not terrible, but it isn't great, either—not in a standard-scoring fantasy league.

Zach Pascal had a better game catching passes from Brian Hoyer in Pittsburgh—the Colts wideout reeled in five passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. It doesn't appear that T.Y. Hilton (calf) will play in Week 10 against the woeful Miami Dolphins, but even as a starter in a solid matchup, Pascal is hardly a sure bet.

Never mind that the Colts could get out to a big lead and be in grind-it-out mode in the second half.

Like I said, a load of what-ifs and maybes.

In Marquise Brown of the Baltimore Ravens, though, we have a more known commodity—which is a bit ironic given that he's a rookie. Brown has been quiet the last month, but he's effectively the No. 1 wide receiver for the Ravens and easily the best bet of this trio to get behind the defense for a long touchdown.

If you're going to roll the dice, you might as well do it with the player with the highest fantasy ceiling.

The Call: Brown

It's come to this for fantasy owners at running back in 2019.

There was a flicker of hope that second-year tailback Mark Walton would provide fantasy owners with a backfield boost off the waiver wire. But like all hope in Miami, it died a quick and painful death—Walton drew a four-game PED suspension last week.

Now, it's a matter of whether to go even further down the depth chart with one of the NFL's worst teams.

The answer to that question is an emphatic "heck no!"

Simply put, there's been nothing to indicate that Kalen Ballage isn't the tailback who has plodded his way to 2.0 yards a carry in 2019. Ballage was a trendy sleeper pick before the season started, but it didn't take long to realize that the second-year pro isn't worth starting. 

That Walton sailed past Ballage on the depth chart to begin with tells you all you need to know.

On the other hand, Ronald Jones II of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may finally be putting it together. Jones piled up 20 touches last week against the Seahawks, parlaying that workload into 82 yards and a score.

Per ESPN's Jenna Laine, Jones earned the nod moving forward as Tampa's lead back.

"He's been consistent [and] he's been more explosive," head coach Bruce Arians said. "It's not that Peyton [Barber] did anything wrong."

Jones isn't going to be the second coming of Christian McCaffrey—so-so RB2 numbers are about the best fantasy owners can reasonably expect.

But he's a better fantasy option than Ballage by a large margin.

The Call: Jones

You know what? I'm not even to criticize this fine fantasy football enthusiast for completely butchering the spelling of Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill's name.

It can't be easy to type through tears.

Six-team bye weeks do terrible things to the human mind.

Of course, fantasy owners have been weepy about Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns since long before Week 10. Mayfield entered the season as a top-five fantasy quarterback in many drafts. He was a surefire superstar in the making.

Instead of a breakout, we got a king-sized flop—Mayfield has seven touchdown passes, 12 interceptions and ranks outside the top 20 in fantasy points among quarterbacks. 

This week, Mayfield and the Browns face a Buffalo Bills team that ranks third in the NFL against the pass and in the bottom five of the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.

Where I'm going with this is—and may God help us all—that Tannehill is easily the better fantasy play in Week 10.

Is Tannehill the long-term answer at quarterback for the Titans? Probably not. But since taking over for Marcus Mariota, Tannehill has two 300-yard passing games and just one fewer touchdown pass in three starts than Mayfield has in eight.

Over those three starts, Tannehill has quietly been a top-five fantasy quarterback in some scoring systems. He also has a far better fantasy matchup this week.

The world has gone mad.

The Call: Tannehill

With half a dozen teams taking a break in Week 10, plenty of fantasy owners are looking to stream a quarterback while theirs is on siesta. Or maybe they've been playing matchups all season—it can be done under center.

I've already discussed my reservations regarding Cousins this week. Thankfully, while he's on the road in Week 10, he's at least playing under a roof—the $28 million man has some unfortunate splits while playing at U.S. Bank Stadium versus on the road, but those splits get that much worse if he's playing outdoors.

Throw in a bottom-five fantasy matchup with the Cowboys, and Cousins is a pass.

So is Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Miami Dolphins, unless your fantasy league awards points for magnificent beard game. The weapons just aren't there.

Ryan Tannehill is as well. It's not that Tannehill isn't a good start in a matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs where the Titans will probably have to throw the ball to keep pace with the Chiefs' high-octane offense. It's just that there's an even better one.

Depending on the scoring system, Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks anywhere from inside the top 10 to outside the top 12. The reason is the turnovers that have plagued Winston since the day he entered the NFL.

However, Winston is coming off a 335-yard, two-score effort against the Seattle Seahawks in which he didn't throw an interception, and the Bucs host an Arizona Cardinals team that leads the NFL in fantasy points given up under center.

Eat a W and roll with Winston.

The Call: Winston

In layman's terms, Occam's Razor states that the most obvious answer to a question is probably the correct one.

That's the case here.

There are several viable options here—but Marquise Brown of the Baltimore Ravens (comparatively speaking) isn't one. Brown hasn't topped 100 yards since Week 1 and has been quiet of late.

Emmanuel Sanders of the San Francisco 49ers had a big Week 9 and has touchdown catches in both his games with the 49ers. But the 49ers are a run-first team—the team ranks 22nd in the NFL in passing. It's not that I don't like Sanders—there are just players here I like more.

Calvin Ridley of the Atlanta Falcons went bonkers in two meetings with the New Orleans Saints last year, to the tune if 15 catches for 239 yards and four touchdowns. But Ridley has a banged-up quarterback throwing him the ball, and if those 2018 meetings are any indication, he'll draw Marshon Lattimore in coverage.

That leaves Stefon Diggs of the Minnesota Vikings and Keenan Allen of the Los Angeles Chargers, who were the first two receivers of this group drafted in fantasy leagues over the summer.

Diggs' matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is far from ideal—the Cowboys rank toward the bottom of the league in PPR fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. But with Adam Thielen out in Week 10, Diggs is a lock for double-digit targets.

Targets equal opportunity.

Allen's numbers are down of late after a hot start, but he remains one of the most targeted pass-catchers in the NFL (fifth in the league in targets after nine weeks) headed into a matchup with the NFL's worst pass defense.

The Call: Allen and Diggs

There was a time (not so long ago) when these questions would have answered themselves. But thanks to injuries, that's no longer the case.

The only thing certain in fantasy football is that nothing is certain.

The good news is that provided that Matt Ryan plays this week, there's no wrong answer at quarterback. The Falcons are likely headed to loss No. 8 on the season, but just like the seven that came before it, Atlanta will move the ball offensively.

Still, Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions is healthy, sixth in NFL.com default fantasy scoring among quarterbacks and playing for a Detroit team that's struggling mightily of late to run the ball.

The other three starters are a matter of one sure thing and a bucket full of perhaps.

The sure thing is Mark Ingram II of the Baltimore Ravens, who squares off Sunday against a Cincinnati Bengals run defense allowing the most rushing yards per game in the NFL.

Spot No. 2 will go to a running back for the New Orleans Saints ahead of a meeting with a porous Falcons defense. The question is which one. If Alvin Kamara plays against Atlanta as expected, he gets the nod. If Kamara sits, Latavius Murray's value skyrockets again.

For spot No. 3, I'm going against the grain (and my usual tendencies) and recommending a wide receiver over two tailbacks. David Johnson's health and workload have both become significant issues with the Arizona Cardinals. Jamaal Williams of the Green Bay Packers is healthy, but he's also the No. 2 back in Titletown behind Aaron Jones.

DK Metcalf's matchup is bad, but he's earned the trust of Russell Wilson and has nine catches for 136 yards and three touchdowns over his last two games.

Ride the hot hand.

The Call: Stafford, Ingram, Kamara and Metcalf

We'll wrap this week's questions (save for Rapid Fire) with one of the more asked-about players in Week 10.

Per ESPN's Ben Baby, Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor indicated earlier in the week that he expected veteran wide receiver A.J. Green to make his 2019 debut Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens.

But that was before Green missed practice Wednesday, a setback Taylor admitted clouds the picture considerably.

When healthy and on his game, Green is as good as any wideout in the league. But this is Week 10. Green has been out for a long time. He's on the wrong side of 30. Injuries have been a big problem in recent years.  The winless Bengals are a terrible team starting a rookie quarterback. And now Green may not be as healthy as we thought.

Other than that, though...

With luck, Green will be startable at some point this season. But this week at least, Christian Kirk of the Arizona Cardinals and Robert Woods of the Los Angeles Rams are better fantasy options.

The flex spot is a bit tougher call. Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers was a top-five PPR running back over much of the first half of the season. And the 24-year-old tallied 93 total yards in last week's win over the Green Bay Packers. But last week, we also saw the workload split between Ekeler and Melvin Gordon III swing more in the latter's favor.

On the other hand, Singletary is coming off season highs in both touches (23) and total yards (140). In Week 10, the rookie will go up against a Cleveland Browns defense that ranks 30th in the NFL against the run and gives up the ninth-most PPR fantasy points to running backs.

The two backs have momentum building in opposite directions. Singletary is the play.

The Call: Kirk, Woods and Singletary

Now it's time to hit the two-minute drill portion of this week's column with spread formation, quick-hitting fantasy advice—rapid-fire style.

   

pwiesen21 is looking for a flex play. "Have to pick one out of four for flex. 0.5 PPR. [Devin] Singletary, [Devonta] Freeman, [Emmanuel] Sanders, [Jaylen] Samuels."

There are some good options here. Freeman has turned it on of late, and Samuels racked up the catches last week. But Singletary has turned it on of late and gets a gravy matchup. I'm high on the rookie in Week 10.

    

We'll stay on flex questions with atxxxin. "Who do I start at flex in a 12-team PPR league? Marquise Brown or Jamison Crowder."

Hollywood has made an impact on this week's article. But while the Jets are a 37-alarm dumpster fire, Crowder is coming off an 8/83/1 stat line last week against the Dolphins and draws a Giants defense that is eminently burnable.

    

cmkza needs two of the following three options in a PPR league. "JuJu Smith-Schuster, Joe Mixon and Curtis Samuel. Who do I sit?"

The Bengals are awful, but I'm generally inclined to side with running backs and the regular touches they receive. Smith-Schuster has been disappointing for reasons outside his control and could see a lot of Jalen Ramsey against the Rams. I'm inclined to roll the dice on Samuel coming off a nice game against the Tennessee Titans.

    

mjlesser has to decide between two veteran quarterbacks. "Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers?"

Were Ryan fully healthy this would be a closer call—one that might even flip Ryan's way. But there's no injury concern with Rivers, and he heads to Oakland to take on the Raiders and their 32nd-ranked pass defense.

        

It's a running back question for guscalle. "Need 2. Tevin Coleman, Devonta Freeman, Jaylen Samuels. PPR."

The Samuels run was fun while it lasted. But it may not last much longer. Both Coleman and Freeman are top-20 fantasy options over the past four weeks in terms of PPR fantasy points per game. Roll with that pair.

    

richiechicagofan has an interesting quandary at quarterback. "[Drew] Brees or [Russell] Wilson."

Wilson has been fantastic for fantasy owners in 2019, and it's hard to imagine benching him. But a healthy Brees gets a top-five fantasy matchup with the Falcons, while Wilson draws the worst matchup in the NFL for quarterbacks in the 49ers.

     

lucastrombley wants some help at wide receiver. "Standard league, two WR. A.J. Green, [DJ] Moore, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods."

As I already mentioned, I wouldn't start Green this week (even if he plays) unless there weren't any other viable options. Moore's matchup isn't great and his target share has fluctuated. Robinson is one of the few things working for the Bears offensively right now, and Woods should get a bump in targets with Brandin Cooks out again.

     

Finally, ffootball has a team defense question. San Francisco's defense vs. Seattle or Pittsburgh's defense vs. LA Rams?"

Neither the Steelers nor the 49ers have especially good fantasy matchups in Week 10. There's only one team defense that has piled up more fantasy points in 2019 than the Niners—the New England Patriots. Go with San Francisco on Monday night.

     

Have other fantasy football start/sit questions? Post them here, on the Bleacher Report app or on Twitter @IDPSharks, and I'll do my best to help.

Gary Davenport was the Fantasy Sports Writers Association 2017 Football Writer of the Year.