Odds for CBB Bubble Teams Making 2019 March Madness with 3 Weeks to Go

In less than one month, the men's NCAA tournament selection committee is going to somehow come up with a list of 68 teams who deserve a shot to play for a national championship.

What are the chances that the current bubble teams make that cut?

Based on a combination of current resumes, current seeding in the Bracket Matrix and the remaining schedule, we've placed dancing odds on the last four in and first four out.

Though I used the Bracket Matrix to come up with the last four in and first four out, please note that I didn't use all of it. Rather, only the 39 projections that were updated on Feb. 20 were included, since there were so many key bubble games on the night of the 19th that obviously weren't accounted for in previous projections.

Of particular note, the full matrix has Davidson as the fourth team out and Furman as fifth out. But after Nebraska and Davidson both lost on Tuesday, Furman moved up two spots and Davidson dropped out of the picture.

On the safer side of things, the full matrix has Florida as fourth-to-last in and Alabama as fifth-to-last in. After the Crimson Tide lost to Texas A&M, though, they only appeared in 27 of the 39 Feb. 20 projections while Florida was in 37. Thus, Alabama is in this discussion rather than Florida. (Plus, the Gators upset LSU on Wednesday night, so they've moved even further into the field anyway.)

Please also keep in mind that if one or more of Gonzaga, Nevada, Wofford and Buffalo lose in their conference tournaments—or if a team like DePaul or Rutgers comes out of nowhere to steal a bid by winning a major-conference tournament—the at-large pool shrinks. It's not likely, but it's possible that none of these eight teams get in. That is factored into the odds.

The following teams are listed in descending order of current spot on the overall seed list, beginning with Temple as fourth-to-last in and ending with Nebraska as the fourth team out.

Resume: 19-7, NET 53, KP 75, SOS 64, NC SOS 224, 1-5 vs Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2, 13-1 vs. Q3/Q4

Current Spot in Bracket Matrix: Fourth-to-Last Team In

Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, at Memphis, vs. Tulane, at Connecticut, vs. UCF

I think we can all agree it has been a bizarre year for the bubble. Even before February began, we were already looking at 10-loss teams from major conferences as well as possible at-large candidates from conferences that have always been one-bid leagues. And it has only gotten worse now that those former 10-loss teams are sporting a dozen or more Ls on their resumes.

But Temple is a nostalgic bubble team, hovering around 50th in the NET with seven total losses, one excellent win (vs. Houston) and one embarrassing loss (vs. Penn).

This is what we're used to seeing at this time of year: A team right on the cut line with the type of resume that could improve considerably with one quality win or completely fall apart with one bad loss.

The problem for Temple is that there aren't any marquee opportunities unless it runs into either Cincinnati or Houston in the AAC tournament.

To get into the Big Dance, the Owls probably need to go 4-1 (provided the loss doesn't come against Tulane) the rest of the way and avoid a terrible loss in the AAC tournament. That's feasible, but not quite probable, considering three of the five games are coin flips.

Tournament Odds: +115

Resume: 15-11, NET 52, KP 59, SOS 28, NC SOS 59, 2-6 vs Q1, 7-3 vs. Q2, 6-2 vs. Q3/Q4

Current Spot in Bracket Matrix: Third-to-Last Team In

Remaining Schedule: vs. Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, vs. LSU, vs. Auburn, at Arkansas

On a Tuesday night full of tough losses for bubble teams, Alabama's letdown at Texas A&M might have been the worst self-inflicted wound. The Crimson Tide led by a dozen midway through the second half, but they only scored a dozen points the rest of the way, allowing the Aggies to cruise to a 65-56 victory.

Alabama has now been swept by Texas A&M, which is otherwise 2-9 in SEC play with wins over lowly Georgia and Missouri. Not a great look for the Crimson Tide, who have also suffered bad losses to Georgia State and Northeastern.

The good news is that early January home win over Kentucky looks even better than it did at the time. But is that victory and a pair of home wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State enough to carry an 11-loss team ranked outside the top 50 by both KenPom and the NET?

The Bracket Matrix still has the Crimson Tide in by a sliver, but I already had them out before the loss to the Aggies. At this point, they barely deserve to be in the conversation.

They have ample opportunity to turn things around before the SEC tournament, though. After the must-win home game against Vanderbilt, Alabama closes out the regular season with one definite Quadrant 1 chance (vs. LSU) and three other games right on the Q1/Q2 border.

A 3-2 finish would keep the Crimson Tide in the hunt. Going 4-1 the rest of the way would probably put them in "You're in as long as you don't lose to Vandy or Georgia in the SEC tournament" territory. But KenPom has Alabama projected to lose each of its final four games, so it'll be quite the uphill climb to get to that point.

Tournament Odds: +180

Resume: 17-8, NET 66, KP 55, SOS 69, NC SOS 51, 4-1 vs Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2, 10-3 vs. Q3/Q4

Current Spot in Bracket Matrix: Second-to-Last Team In

Remaining Schedule: vs. California, at Oregon, at Oregon State, at Arizona

This might be the most frustrating/puzzling/nauseating resume in the country.

Arizona State entered play on Wednesday with four Quadrant 1 wins, but all four were in the bottom half of Quadrant 1. (Home games against NET No. 16-30, neutral games against NET No. 26-50 or road games against NET No. 38-75.) It's an excellent quartet of wins and would be more than enough to yield a bid for a team that doesn't have a resume full of questionable losses.

Unfortunately for the Sun Devils, that's exactly what they have.

In the most bizarre four-game stretch you could find on any schedule for this season, Arizona State lost at Vanderbilt (NET No. 131), won a home game against Kansas (No. 15) and lost back-to-back home games against Princeton (No. 181) and Utah (No. 103). Factor in the later 21-point home loss to Washington State (No. 168) and the Quadrant 2 road losses to Colorado, USC and Stanford, and it sure does feel like the bad losses are outweighing the good wins.

But the Sun Devils have fewer total losses and more Q1 wins than most of the major-conference teams on the bubble, so they're still hanging around.

Assuming they win the home game against Cal on Saturday, the good news is they can't pick up any more terrible losses before the Pac-12 tournament. The bad news is all three of those road games to close out the regular season could be losses. And while we're not sure how the committee is going to use these new NET rankings, a 10-loss or 11-loss team ranked outside the top 60 probably isn't going to have a strong case.

Arizona State likely needs to go 3-1 the rest of the way, which won't be easy.

Tournament Odds: +145

Resume: 15-11, NET 43, KP 33, SOS 31, NC SOS 138, 1-8 vs Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 11-0 vs. Q3/Q4

Current Spot in Bracket Matrix: Last Team In

Remaining Schedule: vs. Boston College, at Pitt, vs. North Carolina, at Notre Dame, vs. Syracuse

Two weekends ago, Clemson finally got its much-needed Quadrant 1 victory, holding Virginia Tech to 51 points in a home win. The Tigers had been on the cusp of sneaking into the projected field, and they jumped in with a splash with that result.

Since then, however, they have lost back-to-back road games (Miami and Louisville) by one-point margins and were never that close to winning Tuesday night's home game against Florida State. Even the Miami loss—Clemson's worst of the season as far as the NET is concerned—wasn't a terrible individual outcome. But the collective impact of the three-game losing streak has damaged a resume with only one quality win.

The Tigers should get back on the right track in the next seven days against Boston College and Pittsburgh, but neither of those games—nor the subsequent game at Notre Dame—will do much to help this resume. Those are just land mines that Clemson needs to avoid. If it can do that and also win one of the home games against UNC and Syracuse, that would be huge.

A 3-2 finish would leave the Tigers with work to do, though.

Conference record doesn't matter to the selection committee, but it matters in regard to conference tournaments. Clemson is 5-8 and will most likely end up as either the No. 8 or 9 seed in the ACC tournament. That would mean a second-round game against NC State, Syracuse or maybe Virginia Tech if the Hokies sputter to the finish line.

That may well be the most noteworthy bubble game in any conference tournament. Going to be a photo finish on this one.

Tournament Odds: Even

Resume: 15-12, NET 49, KP 51, SOS 23, NC SOS 63, 2-7 vs Q1, 5-5 vs. Q2, 8-0 vs. Q3/Q4

Current Spot in Bracket Matrix: First Team Out

Remaining Schedule: vs. Providence, at Villanova, vs. Xavier, at Providence

Butler should go 3-1 the rest of the way, losing at Villanova while sweeping Providence and taking care of Xavier at home.

Would that be enough, though?

Butler's strength of schedule is probably the biggest thing working in its favor. The Bulldogs have played 19 games against the top two Quadrants and only three games against teams outside the NET top 160—and none of those three teams ranks lower than No. 260.

What Butler has accomplished against that schedule is less impressive.

Its best win was a neutral-site victory over Florida, and the Bulldogs proceeded to lose by 34 at Florida a month later. It's not like the Gators are comfortably in the field, either, so that neutral-site win wasn't that impressive in the first place. And losses to the likes of Georgetown, Saint Louis, Xavier and Dayton—though not individually awful—look bad when collectively juxtaposed with just the one good win.

If the final two weeks play out as expected and Butler finishes 18-13, it might need one more decent win in the Big East tournament. The way things are trending, the Bulldogs would get the No. 5 seed, drawing either Seton Hall or St. John's in the quarterfinals.

They went 2-2 against those teams, and three of the four games were decided by four points or fewer. As with Clemson, this tourney journey should come right down to the wire.

Tournament Odds: +105

Resume: 20-6, NET 36, KP 40, SOS 127, NC SOS 23, 1-2 vs Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, 17-1 vs. Q3/Q4

Current Spot in Bracket Matrix: Second Team Out

Remaining Schedule: at Boise State, vs. San Diego State, vs. Nevada, at Colorado State

Let's note right off the bat that none of Utah State's bad losses are dreadful. The Aggies lost a home game against Fresno State on a buzzer-beater and then lost a close contest at San Diego State—which just beat Nevada on Wednesday. And that's as bad as it gets.

The much bigger problem for USU is that its best wins were nothing special. The lone Quadrant 1 win (neutral site against No. 47 Saint Mary's) barely qualifies for the top tier, and the two Quadrant 2 wins at Fresno State and UC Irvine aren't playing a strong second and third fiddle.

In a nutshell, there are a couple of good-not-great wins and a few bad-not-awful losses, and that's about it. Even in a season that is ripe for mid-major at-large bids, that has "Bubble" written all over it.

Utah State blew its chances for marquee wins against Houston and Nevada, and it missed on opportunities for what would have been decent wins over Arizona State and BYU. And if the Aggies can't win the rematch with Nevada in two weeks, they darn well better win the other three remaining games if they expect to stay in the picture.

If that's the path they take, they'll enter the MWC tournament at 23-7 with, well, basically the same resume they have now, since the three non-Nevada games would all be Quadrant 3 wins as of today. If the Aggies proceed to beat Fresno State in the MWC semifinals before losing to Nevada for a third time, it might be enough, given how well-regarded this team is both in the NET and on KenPom.

Let's be sure not to rule out the possibility of a home win over Nevada, though. The Wolf Pack smoked the Aggies in Reno, but Logan could be a different story. KenPom gives USU a 49 percent chance of winning what could be a bid-clinching game.

Tournament Odds: -125

Resume: 19-5, NET 44, KP 53, SOS 240, NC SOS 301, 1-4 vs Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2, 15-1 vs. Q3/Q4

Current Spot in Bracket Matrix: Third Team Out

Remaining Schedule: vs. Wofford, at Samford, at Chattanooga

The Southern Conference (SoCon) has never received an at-large bid—not even in 2009 when Stephen Curry led Davidson to a 26-6 record before it faltered in the semifinals of the conference tournament.

So we are in uncharted waters, as both Wofford and Furman look good for an invitation to the Big Dance in advance of their head-to-head showdown Saturday.

As the projected automatic bid, Wofford isn't in the bubble conversation. But even if the Terriers were to lose at Furman and lose late in the SoCon tournament, they should get in. We'll see if the selection committee agrees, but it seems like Wofford has done enough that a loss or two to top-75 opponents wouldn't ruin everything.

Furman probably needs to win this game, though. Either that or it needs to win the SoCon tournament, but if that happens, we obviously no longer need to debate at-large status.

The Paladins did score a mammoth road win over Villanova in mid-November, and they have comfortably won home games against East Tennessee State (by 30) and UNC Greensboro (by 10) in the past two weeks. But if they lose this game and then lose to Wofford for a third time in the SoCon tourney—the best-case scenario outside winning said tourney—they're going to be 1-6 against Quadrant 1 with only a handful of Quadrant 2 and Quadrant 3 wins behind that mark.

At that point, Furman's fate would be left in the hands of the many other bubble teams playing in major-conference tournaments. Given how few major-conference teams have actually been playing their way into the field lately, that may end well for the Paladins. But it would be a lot easier to pencil them into the tournament if they go 3-0 down the stretch.

Because the Wofford game is a coin flip and because the subsequent road game against Samford—which beat Furman a month ago—is far from a gimme, it's more likely the Paladins will miss the NCAA tournament.

Tournament Odds: +150

Resume: 14-12, NET 45, KP 41, SOS 90, NC SOS 217, 2-9 vs Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 7-0 vs. Q3/Q4

Current Spot in Bracket Matrix: Fourth Team Out

Remaining Schedule: vs. Purdue, at Michigan, at Michigan State, vs. Iowa

The Nebraska Cornhuskers only have two Quadrant 1 wins in 11 tries, and neither one (at Clemson, at Indiana) is much of a bragging point.

It's mystifying that Nebraska is still in the conversation following Tuesday night's 24-point loss to Penn State—the Cornhuskers' 12th of the season. If the selection committee were still using RPI as its primary sorting tool, Nebraska (No. 111 in RPI) would've been dead and buried long ago.

Instead, the RPI is what's dead, and the Cornhuskers are a top-50 team as far as the NET is concerned, thanks in no small part to a year-to-date scoring margin of plus-211 points. KenPom also still has them comfortably in the top 50, which has created a conundrum for an entire country of bracketologists who are trying to figure out how the committee will use this new ranking data.

Fortunately, there are still a couple of weeks left for Nebraska to prove whether it belongs.

The 'Huskers have a downright brutal final four games and will need to win at least two of them to have a realistic shot at getting into the tournament.

Given how poorly this team has performed since it lost Isaac Copeland Jr. for the year in late January to a knee injury, that is unlikely to say the least. Even at full strength, Nebraska never defeated an opponent as good as the ones it'll face the rest of the way.

Tournament Odds: +375

Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com. NET rankings and Quadrant data courtesy of WarrenNolan.com. NET rankings accurate through start of play Thursday.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.