2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

Virginia, Tennessee, Duke and Michigan are once again the projected No. 1 seeds for the 2019 NCAA men's basketball tournament, but the bigger news in this week's update is that the Ohio Valley Conference (with two teams) is now projected for more bids than the Pac-12 (one).

Both Arizona and Arizona State had a tough trip to Los Angeles, going a combined 1-3 against UCLA and USC to drop out of the NCAA tournament picture. If Washington wins the conference tournament, it'll be the first time in four decades that a major conference sends just one team to the Big Dance.

But you're not here to read about how awful the Pac-12 is. You want to know which teams are actually playing well. And if you haven't already bought stock in Villanova, time is quickly running out. The Wildcats have won two of the last three national championships, and they are one of the hottest teams in the nation right now.

For each of the four regions, we'll discuss one team that is in much better shape than it was in our Jan. 21 projection and one team that—though still in position to dance—isn't as good as we thought.

Before that, we'll start with the bubble, like we always do. And after the region-by-region breakdown, there will be an explanation of why the No. 1 seeds are ranked in the order that they are. At the end is a list of overall seeds by conference as a handy reference guide.

Last Team In: Florida Gators (11-8)

I hate Florida's resume. Hate it. Hate it. Hate it. The Gators blew out Butler at home—after losing to the Bulldogs on a neutral court earlier in the season—and...that's it. And Butler isn't even in the projected field anymore, so how great is that one win?

But because that key win came by a 34-point margin while the losses to Michigan State, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Mississippi State, TCU and Butler were by a combined margin of 35 points, the margin-of-victory-oriented KenPom.com and the NCAA Evaluation Tool love the Gators. They are ranked 26th in the former and 37th in the latter, both of which almost mandate we put this team in the projected field for the time being.

Judgment day is coming, though. Florida still has to play Kentucky and LSU twice each as well as road games against Tennessee, Auburn and Alabama. If they keep losing close games to good opponents, there will eventually be too many losses to dance.

        

Second-to-Last In: Belmont Bruins (14-4)

Now this is what you want to see from a bubble team.

Sure, Belmont had a few missteps, dropping an early road game against Green Bay before getting swept by a just-OK Jacksonville State squad. But the Bruins have capitalized on the opportunities they were afforded. They swept Lipscomb, which is just outside the top 40 in the NET. They won at UCLA. They won at Murray State. And they put up a decent fight in a road loss to Purdue.

Chances have been few and far between, but Belmont is 2-1 in Quadrant 1 games and 4-1 against Quadrants 1 and 2.

Care to guess how many teams have won at least 80 percent of games played against the top two quadrants? The full list is Virginia, Tennessee, Duke, Michigan, Michigan State, Houston, Nevada and Belmont. That's nice company, and it's good enough for a bid in our eyes. Just don't go acquiring any more bad losses, Belmont.

        

Third-to-Last In: St. John's Red Storm (15-5)

St. John's has only played once since the last update, and that home loss to Georgetown was far from ideal. The Red Storm have now lost four of their last five games, and things aren't about to get any easier. They play at Creighton on Wednesday before a trip to Duke on Saturday, followed by yet another road game against Marquette next Tuesday.

The laughably weak nonconference schedule wasn't a problem when St. John's was 12-0. But now that this team is 15-5 and staring down the barrel of its sixth, seventh and eighth losses, the Johnnies are going to wish they had scheduled more aggressively.

If they do lose the next three games, they would likely need to go at least 7-1 over the final month of the regular season in order to make the NCAA tournament.

        

Fourth-to-Last In: Creighton Bluejays (11-8)

Creighton snapped its four-game losing streak with back-to-back wins over Georgetown and Butler. Neither result was particularly noteworthy, but in a week of complete and utter carnage for the national bubble, two wins and no losses made for a nice impression.

The Bluejays are 3-4 in Big East play. Though conference record means nothing as a standalone data point, they probably need to finish 11-7 to feel safe about getting a bid, given how little they accomplished in nonconference play and how unimpressive the Big East is aside from Marquette and Villanova.

First Team Out: Seton Hall Pirates (12-8)

Seton Hall is the first team out, Creighton and St. John's are two of the last four in, and Butler would be the fifth or sixth team out if we went that deep in this section. In other words, the Big East is more like The Big Bubble this year.

The Pirates have lost four in a row, they have already been swept by DePaul and they were embarrassed in Sunday's loss to Villanova. The nonconference wins over Kentucky and Maryland still look pretty, but this team desperately needs to turn things around this week against Providence and Butler.

        

Second Team Out: Arizona State Sun Devils (14-6)

In recent years, winning by 11 at UCLA followed by a last-second two-point loss at USC would be considered a successful road trip in the Pac-12. This year, it was disappointing enough to bump Arizona State out of the projected field.

That loss to the Trojans joins previous losses to Vanderbilt, Princeton, Utah and Stanford on the growing list of reasons to disregard ASU's marquee win over Kansas and keep this team out of the NCAA tournament. They'll probably need to go 9-1 the rest of the way to get back into the projected field with any sliver of breathing room.

        

Third Team Out: Temple Owls (15-5)

Temple let a big opportunity slip through its fingers Sunday. Despite leading Cincinnati by 14 on multiple occasions, the Owls allowed the Bearcats to claw all the way back for a four-point victory.

Narrowly losing to the second-best team in the American Athletic Conference didn't hurt Temple. The Owls were our third team out one week ago and are right back in the same spot. But we also said last week that they probably needed to go 2-1 during this three-game stretch against Memphis (win), Cincinnati (loss) and Houston (to be determined).

If they don't beat the Cougars on Thursday, there simply aren't going to be any more chances for quality wins until the AAC tournament—which might be too little, too late.

        

Fourth Team Out: Utah State Aggies (14-5)

Utah State has a lot of work to do in a Mountain West Conference with limited opportunities for key wins. Thus far, the Aggies have a neutral-site win over Saint Mary's and nothing else remotely worth boasting. But they don't have any terrible losses and they are comfortably within the top 50 in both KenPom and the NET.

They likely need to go 10-1 the rest of the way, which would include either a road win over Fresno State or a home win over Nevada. As long as they don't lose to any other team in the conference along the way, they'll remain in the conversation.

         

Also Worth Mentioning: Southern Conference

The SoCon has four teams ranked in the NET top 100: Wofford (31), UNC-Greensboro (51), East Tennessee State (71) and Furman (81). Prior to Furman's home loss to Samford (142) over the weekend, no member of the quartet had suffered a single Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4 loss, and they had a combined total of seven Quadrant 1 or Quadrant 2 wins.

At the moment, Wofford is the only one with a compelling case for an at-large bid, but it's starting to feel like this should be a two-bid league. If that means overlooking a team that goes 9-11 in Big Ten play in order to make room for a UNC Greensboro team that doesn't have any great wins but lost by just six at LSU and held a lead late into the second half at Kentucky, so be it.

I'm not there quite yet, but if the top of this conference can tread water (avoid terrible losses) while the major-conference bubble continues to take shape over the next few weeks, it might be a different story.

Columbia, South Carolina

No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 16 Robert Morris/Norfolk State

No. 8 Baylor vs. No. 9 Washington

San Jose, California

No. 4 Villanova vs. No. 13 Vermont

No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Murray State

Des Moines, Iowa

No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Northern Kentucky

No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 UCF

Columbus, Ohio

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Loyola-Chicago

No. 7 Cincinnati vs. No. 10 Indiana

       

Noteworthy Riser: Villanova Wildcats (No. 6 seed to No. 4 seed)

Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, here come the defending national champions. Losses to Furman and Penn during nonconference play left Villanova looking a little bit bubble-y in mid-December, but the Wildcats have won eight in a row and may well play their way into a No. 2 seed before all is said and done.

As is always the case with Villanova in recent years, this team is at its best when the long ball is consistently falling. And the Wildcats have been on fire from downtown lately. They are 56-of-129 (43.4 percent) over their past four games, shooting at least 40 percent and putting up at least 80 points in each game. They drained 17 triples while embarrassing Seton Hall over the weekend and scored a nice road win over Butler a few days before that.

Defense is still a big question mark for the Wildcats. They play at an adjusted tempo that ranks 338th nationally, but they have still allowed more than 70 points in half of their contests. But when they're shooting like this, it doesn't much matter.

         

Noteworthy Slider: Maryland Terrapins (No. 3 seed to No. 6 seed)

What an ugly week for Maryland.

The Terrapins entered on a seven-game winning streak, including a blow out of Ohio State on the road in the last game that stretch. It looked like they were clearly the third-best team in the Big Ten and ready to make a run at Michigan and Michigan State for a spot in the top two.

However, they never had much of a chance in their road loss to Michigan State, and they followed that up with a neutral-site loss to 5-14 Illinois. Maryland led by 11 in the first half, but the Terps simply could not handle the Illini's pressure, losing the turnover battle by a 21-9 margin at Madison Square Garden.

There's no time for licking wounds, though. After Tuesday night's home game against Northwestern, Maryland has to go through a five-game gauntlet: at Wisconsin, at Nebraska, vs. Purdue, at Michigan, at Iowa. It's not unrealistic to think the Terrapins might go 0-5 in those games and nose-dive toward the bubble.

Columbia, South Carolina

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Lehigh

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Auburn

San Jose, California

No. 4 Marquette vs. No. 13 Hofstra

No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 VCU

Tulsa, Oklahoma

No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Texas State

No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Creighton/Belmont

Columbus, Ohio

No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 UC Irvine

No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 10 Wofford

       

Noteworthy Riser: Wofford Terriers (No. 12 seed to No. 10 seed)

We hardly ever point out significant movement by minor-conference teams, but it bears mentioning that Wofford is looking like it would be worthy of an at-large bid, if necessary.

The Pac-12 is beginning to cement its likely status as a one-bid league. Big Ten teams like Indiana and Nebraska are fading fast and trending toward 11 or 12 conference losses. The Big East only has two teams (Villanova and Marquette) with a .500 or better record in league play. And while all those major conferences are falling apart, Wofford just keeps on trucking, sitting at 9-0 in Southern Conference play and 17-4 overall following wins over Samford and Chattanooga.

The Terriers don't have anything close to a bad loss, falling only against North Carolina, Kansas, Oklahoma and Mississippi State. They are a top-40 team on both KenPom and the NET, and they have a resume almost indistinguishable from that of Washington, TCU and North Carolina State. An 8-1 record the rest of the way would almost certainly be good enough for an at-large bid, and even 7-2 would be enough for a hearty debate.

         

Noteworthy Slider: Auburn Tigers (No. 7 seed to No. 9 seed)

Remember when Auburn was a Top 10 team and a viable candidate to win the national championship? The Tigers blew out Washington in the opening week of the season before giving Duke a run for its money in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational. By mid-December, it was anyone's guess whether Auburn or Tennessee would go on to win the SEC.

That changed in a hurry.

Auburn is 4-5 in its last nine games, including losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State in the past week. And none of the four wins—vs. Murray State, vs. North Florida, vs. Georgia, at Texas A&M—did anything to suggest that this team is on the verge of turning things around in the near future. In fact, the Tigers do not have a Quadrant 1 win yet this season, and they have only picked up one Quadrant 2 victory in the past five weeks.

They'll open February with three straight against Alabama, Florida and LSU—the first two at home, the third in Baton Rouge. If they don't go at least 2-1 in those games, it'll be time to start wondering if the preseason No. 11 team in the AP poll will even make the NCAA tournament.

Tulsa, Oklahoma

No. 1 Tennessee vs. No. 16 Rider

No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 North Carolina State

Salt Lake City, Utah

No. 4 Nevada vs. No. 13 New Mexico State

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Lipscomb

Jacksonville, Florida

No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 South Dakota State

No. 6 Mississippi State vs. No. 11 Syracuse

Jacksonville, Florida

No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 15 Radford

No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Texas

       

Noteworthy Riser: Minnesota Golden Gophers (No. 10 seed to No. 8 seed)

The predictive analytics don't love Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are just barely inside the top 60 in both KenPom and the NET, despite a 4-3 record in Quadrant 1 games and nary a Quadrant 3 nor Quadrant 4 loss.

(Margin of victory is almost entirely to blame here. Minnesota has five Quadrant 1 or Quadrant 2 wins, but each one came by seven points or fewer. Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers lost by 27 to Illinois, 20 to Ohio State, 15 to Maryland and 12 to Boston College. They would be in much better shape if we were still using RPI, where they are ranked 30th.)

But Minnesota passed the proverbial eye test this week, coming back from a late 10-point deficit to nearly win at Michigan before putting up 92 points in a home win over Iowa. That puts the Gophers on the short list of Big Ten teams trending in the right direction.

They'll need to pull off a couple of big upsets to remain in good shape, though. They still play Purdue twice, Michigan and Wisconsin at home, and Michigan State, Nebraska and Maryland on the road.

         

Noteworthy Slider: Texas Longhorns (No. 7 seed to No. 10 seed)

Texas is quickly approaching critical mass in terms of sheer number of losses.

The Longhorns have four quality wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Oklahoma and Kansas State, but road losses to TCU and Georgia this week give them nine for the season. And losing to Georgia—despite forcing 26 turnovers and shooting 42.9 percent from three-point range—was probably their most unforgivable loss of the season.

Up next: a home game against Kansas and a road game against Iowa State that will likely drop the Longhorns to 11-11. It's hard to imagine they'd be able to come back from that to earn an at-large bid.

Des Moines, Iowa

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Sam Houston State/Texas Southern

No. 8 Kansas State vs. No. 9 Ole Miss

Hartford, Connecticut

No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 13 Yale

No. 5 Buffalo vs. No. 12 St. John's/Florida

Hartford, Connecticut

No. 3 Virginia Tech vs. No. 14 Old Dominion

No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Alabama

Salt Lake City

No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Montana

No. 7 Nebraska vs. No. 10 TCU

       

Noteworthy Riser: Alabama Crimson Tide (New to the Field)

Despite blowing a late lead in a loss at Baylor on Saturday, Alabama shot up the rankings this week by torching Ole Miss by 21 points on Tuesday night.

The Crimson Tide didn't shoot well in that game, but they suffocated the Rebels with offensive rebounds, blocks and steals. It seemed like they knew it was a borderline must-win game, and they fought much harder than Mississippi did.

Alabama still has a bit of a bizarre resume. There's an outstanding home win over Kentucky, but there's also Quadrant 3 losses to Texas A&M, Northeastern and Georgia State. In between, though, the Crimson Tide are 5-0 against Quadrant 2, which looks like it would be enough for a bid if the season ended today.

         

Noteworthy Slider: Ole Miss Rebels (No. 6 seed to No. 9 seed)

Every action has an equal but opposite reaction, and the 74-53 loss to Alabama was a rough one for Ole Miss.

Had the Rebels bounced back with a home win over Iowa State in the SEC/B12 Challenge, they would've been just fine. Instead, Ole Miss lost by 14 to the Cyclones, allowing them to shoot 30-of-40 (75 percent) from inside the arc en route to 87 points.

That loss damaged the Ole Miss resume even more than the Alabama game, because it was the Rebels' last chance to spruce up an unimpressive nonconference resume. They got a neutral-site win over Baylor—back in November when the Bears were kind of terrible—and that was their only Quadrant 1 or 2 win.

As a result, they might need to go 12-6 in SEC play (8-4 the rest of the way) to have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they plan on losing remaining home games against Kentucky and Tennessee, they really can't afford to lose any games to the likes of Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina and Texas A&M.

Just Missed: Michigan State Spartans (18-3)

Had the Spartans been able to complete the comeback at Purdue on Sunday, they would have been a No. 1 seed—possibly the No. 1 overall seed. As is, they are 8-3 against Quadrant 1 and they don't have any losses to teams ranked lower than 16th in the NET.

They remain slightly behind one-loss Michigan for now, but they'll have two head-to-head battles late in the regular season—and potentially a rubber match in the Big Ten championship—to settle that debate.

        

No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (19-1)

No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (18-2)

No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers (18-1)

No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (18-1)

It was a hectic week along the bubble, but a thoroughly meaningless one as far as the No. 1 seeds are concerned. These four teams went a combined 9-0, but they didn't play a single game against a team in the NET top 40.

Three of the four did have one scare, though. Tennessee needed overtime to beat Vanderbilt. Michigan won its home game against Minnesota on a buzzer-beater. And while Duke eventually won the home game against Georgia Tech with room to spare, the Blue Devils couldn't buy a bucket for the first 22 minutes and trailed by eight early in the second half.

In the end, though, nothing changed. And odds are nothing will change next week, either, unless Michigan loses at Iowa or Virginia loses at NC State—neither of which is particularly likely. We do get the Duke vs. Virginia rematch the following weekend (Feb. 9). That one should shake things up a little bit, either vaulting Duke ahead of UVA or all but cementing the Cavaliers as the No. 1 overall seed.

In case seeded regions aren't enough and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each team's overall seed, broken down by conference. The first four out are in italics.

American (3): 12. Houston; 27. Cincinnati; 43. UCF; 71. Temple

ACC (8): 1. Virginia; 3. Duke; 8. North Carolina; 11. Virginia Tech; 14. Louisville; 26. Florida State; 35. NC State; 41. Syracuse

Big 12 (8): 9. Kansas; 19. Texas Tech; 20. Iowa State; 22. Oklahoma; 29. Kansas State; 30. Baylor; 39. TCU; 40. Texas

Big East (4): 15. Villanova; 16. Marquette; 44. Creighton; 45. St. John's; 69. Seton Hall

Big Ten (10): 4. Michigan; 5. Michigan State; 10. Purdue; 17. Wisconsin; 23. Maryland; 25. Iowa; 28. Nebraska; 31. Minnesota; 32. Ohio State; 38. Indiana

Ohio Valley (2): 46. Belmont; 50. Murray State

Pac-12 (1): 36. Washington; 70. Arizona State

SEC (8): 2. Tennessee; 7. Kentucky; 21. LSU; 24. Mississippi State; 33. Ole Miss; 34. Auburn; 42. Alabama; 47. Florida

Other (24): 6. Gonzaga; 13. Nevada; 18. Buffalo; 37. Wofford; 48. Lipscomb; 49. VCU; 51. Hofstra; 52. New Mexico State; 53. Yale; 54. Vermont; 55. Northern Kentucky; 56. Texas State; 57. South Dakota State; 58. Old Dominion; 59. Montana; 60. Radford; 61. UC Irvine; 62. Loyola-Chicago; 63. Lehigh; 64. Rider; 65. Sam Houston State; 66. Texas Southern; 67. Robert Morris; 68. Norfolk State; 72. Utah State

                                  

Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com. NET rankings and Quadrant data courtesy of WarrenNolan.com. NET rankings current through start of play on Jan. 27.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.